19378 Goulburn St · Detroit, MI 48205

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,070 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1949 3,920 sqft lot Est $50k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1949

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $724 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 373 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 10% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $55,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.40%
• DSCR: 3.51
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $50,290
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19940 Westphalia St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,114 (+4%)	0mo	$30,000	$27	76
19730 Goulburn St	0.22mi	3/1.5	977 (-9%)	1mo	$114,000	$117	73
19161 Hamburg St	0.26mi	3/1.0	960 (-10%)	2mo	$116,000	$121	69
18982 Hamburg St	0.31mi	3/1.0	952 (-11%)	3mo	$45,000	$47	65
20020 Pelkey St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-5%)	2mo	$75,000	$74	64
20218 Goulburn St	0.56mi	3/1.0	965 (-10%)	1mo	$12,000	$12	56
18652 Goulburn St	0.40mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+12%)	2mo	$23,000	$19	54
20264 Waltham St	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,192 (+11%)	1mo	$50,000	$42	50
20218 Hickory St	0.65mi	3/1.0	930 (-13%)	1mo	$26,000	$28	47
20200 Alcoy St	0.61mi	3/1.0	917 (-14%)	2mo	$55,100	$60	46
20541 Barlow St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-8%)	2mo	$60,000	$61	46
20300 Hickory St	0.72mi	3/1.0	918 (-14%)	1mo	$31,000	$34	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $34,871
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $80,540
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48205

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,421 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,047/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $724

Break-even live

Break-even rent $505

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19419 Westphalia St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1293	$1,325	$1.02	17d	1	0.02mi
19207 Westphalia St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1179	$1,800	$1.53	17d	1	0.11mi
19610 Westphalia St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	17d	1	0.14mi
19143 Fairport St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,225	$1.14	17d	1	0.19mi
19170 Joann St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1020	$1,400	$1.37	43d	1	0.22mi
19220 Alcoy St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,350	$1.32	17d	1	0.25mi
18703 Waltham St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	43d	1	0.39mi
18681 Barlow St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1041	$1,400	$1.34	24d	1	0.43mi
18624 Fairport St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	874	$1,450	$1.66	21d	1	0.46mi
18624 Fairport St Unit NA Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	924	$1,450	$1.57	24d	1	0.46mi
13669 Pfent St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1031	$1,374	$1.33	17d	1	0.47mi
20027 Alcoy St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,349	$1.35	17d	1	0.48mi
20091 Barlow St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	930	$1,300	$1.40	17d	1	0.52mi
18119 Joann St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	24d	1	0.62mi
20296 Waltham St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	986	$1,300	$1.32	17d	1	0.63mi
20242 Hickory St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	747	$1,300	$1.74	11d	1	0.64mi
20227 Pelkey St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	968	$1,350	$1.39	17d	1	0.65mi
20215 Schoenherr St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	17d	1	0.67mi
20553 Hamburg St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1074	$1,300	$1.21	3d	1	0.75mi
13218 Greiner St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1162	$1,195	$1.03	17d	1	0.76mi
20290 Annott St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	17d	1	0.77mi
13693 Edmore Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1269	$1,550	$1.22	11d	1	0.78mi
12807 Coleen Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,250	$1.16	24d	1	0.84mi
17851 Strasburg St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1079	$1,100	$1.02	17d	1	0.85mi
12846 Georgiana Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	912	$1,300	$1.43	24d	1	0.87mi
11513 Greiner St Unit 11521 Greiner Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	942	$1,050	$1.11	43d	1	0.96mi
14461 Lappin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	989	$1,150	$1.16	17d	1	0.97mi
18431 Teppert St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	1d	1	0.99mi
14481 Maddelein St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	43d	1	1.00mi
14504 Coram St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1203	$1,175	$0.98	24d	1	1.01mi
13501 Vernon Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	24d	1	1.02mi
14068 Carlisle St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,300	$1.27	24d	1	1.03mi
14134 Collingham Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,350	$1.04	43d	1	1.04mi
17241 Rowe St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1316	$1,450	$1.10	17d	1	1.20mi
13050 Couwlier Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	24d	1	1.21mi
11377 Sherman Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	24d	1	1.30mi
14201 Mayfield St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.5	1296	$1,250	$0.96	43d	1	1.36mi
11228 Sherman Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	12d	1	1.37mi
12740 August St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	4d	1	1.39mi
11785 Nashville St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,450	$1.07	3d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2025-06-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-03-25
   historical
3. 2024-12-17
   status Pending
4. 2022-09-23
   status Pending
5. 2022-09-12
   historical
6. 2022-07-29
   status Pending
7. 2022-07-28
   historical
8. 2022-06-15
   status Pending
9. 2022-04-12
   historical
10. 2022-02-18
    status Pending
11. 2022-02-09
    historical
12. 2022-02-02
    status Pending
13. 2022-02-02
    status Pending
14. 2022-01-28
    status Active
15. 2022-01-13
    historical
16. 2022-01-01
    price $55,000
17. 2022-01-01
    price $55,000
18. 2021-12-31
    status Active
19. 2021-12-31
    status Active
20. 2021-11-26
    status Pending
21. 2021-11-26
    status Pending
22. 2021-11-20
    status Active
23. 2021-11-20
    status Active
24. 2021-10-15
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
25. 2021-10-15
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
26. 2021-10-06
    status Active
27. 2021-10-06
    status Active
28. 2021-09-25
    status Pending
29. 2021-09-25
    status Pending
30. 2021-09-04
    listed $50,000 Active
31. 2021-09-04
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,047 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,047 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,047
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,364
• − Management: −$1,364
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $8,318
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,996
• After-tax cash flow: $6,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 34,187
• Household income: $38,966
• Rent vs Own: 49.4% rent · 50.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 93% White 3% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.80%
• Current HPI: 235.0926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+10.0% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-27 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-03-25 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-12-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-09-23 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-09-12 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-07-29 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-07-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-06-15 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-04-12 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-02-18 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-02-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-02-02 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-02-02 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-01-28 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2022-01-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-01-01 Price Changed $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-01-01 Price Changed $55,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-12-31 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-12-31 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2021-11-26 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-11-26 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-11-20 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-11-20 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2021-10-15 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-10-15 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2021-10-06 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-10-06 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2021-09-25 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-09-25 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-09-04 Listed $50,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-09-04 Listed $50,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,047 · -55.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.