9821 Lily St · Pinellas Park, FL 33782

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · Condo public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1970 $535/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Situated on a desirable corner lot, this home offers comfort, convenience, and easy Florida living. Inside, you’ll find neutral-colored walls and abundant natural sunlight, creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere. Impact windows throughout provide peace of mind and energy efficiency. Enjoy an enclosed, temperature-controlled Florida room with its own wall-mounted heat and AC unit, perfect for relaxing any time of year. While central air and heat keep the rest of the home comfortable throughout the seasons. HVAC system replaced in January, 2025 and equipped with a smart thermostat, you can easily monitor and adjust the temperature from anywher

Key facts

• Sold furnished
• Hvac system replaced
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• IMPACT WINDOWS
• HVAC SYSTEM REPLACED
• SOLD FURNISHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Directions available to property
• Financial info: Total annual fees: $6,420; Lease/restrictions: lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly condo/association fee: $535; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, laundry, shuffleboard court, cable TV; Association fee covers cable TV, pool, escrow reserves, gas, internet, structure and grounds maintenance, management, sewer, trash and water; Buyer approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed (size limit); On-site property manager; Association approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Phone available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential villa; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,052 (from public records)
• Exterior features: Patio; Awnings; Private mailbox; Asphalt/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Wall/window AC unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Thermostat; Window treatments; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: No laundry room (none listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($515/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.2% in Pinellas Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#170 in FL, #2,546 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pinellas Central Elementary School (math 51% / reading 45%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 498 students, 64% FRL); Pinellas Park Middle School (math 44% / reading 38%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 1,126 students, 67% FRL); Pinellas Park High School (math 28% / reading 35%, grade F, #424 of 667 statewide, top 64%, 1,919 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.3%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $115k implies a 211% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.60%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-20,754
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-33,231
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33782

• Rents YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,785 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,176/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$535
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,731

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $108	-5% $75	+0% $43	+5% $10	+10% $-22
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $-28	+0% $43	+5% $113	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $101	-0.5pp $72	base $43	+0.5pp $13	+1.0pp $-17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9911 Dahlia St #38 Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	10d	1	0.04mi
9505 49th St N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$2,273	$2.17	0d	20	0.33mi
10321 Larchmont Pl N Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,700	$2.02	26d	1	0.38mi
5200 Springwood Blvd Pinellas Park, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,350	$1.93	0d	4	0.39mi
4973 91st Ave Unit 12 (C) Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	875	$1,475	$1.69	17d	1	0.53mi
4973 91st Ave Unit C Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	875	$1,475	$1.69	16d	1	0.53mi
10770 US Highway 19 N #605 Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	26d	1	0.57mi
5641 94th Ter N Pinellas Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1066	$2,200	$2.06	10d	1	0.59mi
4701 88th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,853	$2.17	13d	20	0.73mi
4940 87th Ave Unit C Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$2,600	$3.71	26d	1	0.84mi
5501 110th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$1,979	$1.98	0d	13	0.85mi
5865 92nd Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$2,400	$2.26	20d	1	0.90mi
8400 49th St N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	707	$1,749	$2.47	0d	21	0.97mi
8851 US Highway 19 N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,275	$2.29	0d	24	1.00mi
6132 100th Cir N Pinellas Park, FL	3.0	1.0	901	$1,995	$2.21	0d	1	1.06mi
6132 100th Cir N Pinellas Park, FL	3.0	1.0	901	$1,995	$2.21	26d	1	1.06mi
4355 84th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,550	$2.21	4d	10	1.09mi
8311 56th Way Unit 2 Pinellas Park, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$2,200	$2.93	26d	1	1.18mi
4771 78th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	903	$1,640	$1.82	26d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $535 · $6,420/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $115,000
2. 2026-03-17
   price $124,900
3. 2026-02-18
   listed $129,900 Active
4. 1993-08-30
   soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,176 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,176 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,176
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − HOA: −$6,420
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$231
• After-tax cash flow: $746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pinellas Park

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #2546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinellas Park, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 50,533
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,461
• Household income: $66,461
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 486.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 12% Two or more races 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 9% Vietnamese 7% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -250.17%
• Current HPI: 314.1689
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+210.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,176 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.