194 Jersey Dr · Allegheny, PA 16635

$64,300

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Embark on a new way of life, at our Cross Keys Village manufactured homes in Duncansville, PA. This community by UMH Properties, Inc. is located close to the spectacular Appalachian mountains, providing residents with views to inspire, and an escape to the outdoors. Cross Keys Village is a community in Pennsylvania with a variety of homes that include open-concept floor plans, full kitchen appliance packages, kitchen pantries, and spacious dining areas. Cross Keys Village offers well crafted and appealing exteriors with front and back decks, driveways, storage sheds, and shaker shingle roofing to give each home features that our residents love. Stop by our community office or give us a call

Key facts

• Front and back decks
• Driveways
• Kitchen pantries

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLANS
• KITCHEN PANTRIES
• SPACIOUS DINING AREAS
• FRONT AND BACK DECKS
• DRIVEWAYS
• STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $64,300

Exterior

• Utilities: Central air conditioning available
• Home design: Single-family (spec home, Eagle River Cross Keys Village plan); 1,184 living area
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, microwave, and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $64k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $64k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hollidaysburg Area SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #129 of 539 in PA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charles W Longer El Sch (math 41% / reading 59%, grade D+, #645 of 1,518 statewide, top 43%, 395 students, 54% FRL); Hollidaysburg Area Jhs (math 36% / reading 61%, grade C-, #146 of 512 statewide, top 30%, 807 students, 41% FRL); Hollidaysburg Area Shs (math 67%, 793 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 99 units permitted in Blair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $445 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Blair County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,371 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.41%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $5,979
• Equity at exit: $9,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $26,580
• Equity at exit: $5,559

Cash invested: $18,004 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16635

• Home prices YoY: -4.0%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,045 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$337
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$80 /mo · $964/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $721

Max offer price $64,300

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $278	+0% $256	+5% $234	+10% $212
Rent	-10% $173	-5% $215	+0% $256	+5% $297	+10% $339
Rate	-1.0pp $288	-0.5pp $272	base $256	+0.5pp $239	+1.0pp $222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,075
• Closing costs: $1,929
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
259 Brown Swiss Cir Duncansville, PA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	784	$1,025	$1.31	45d	1	0.14mi
1024 3rd Ave Unit 2nd Fl Duncansville, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $64,300 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $64,300 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,300 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,300 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,300 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,300 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $64,300 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,300 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $64,300 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $64,300 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $64,300 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $64,300 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $64,300 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-06-03
    listed $64,300 Active 18 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,602
• − Property taxes: −$964
• − Insurance: −$1,824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,003
• − Management: −$1,003
• − Depreciation: −$1,871
• Taxable income: $2,273
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$546
• After-tax cash flow: $2,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hollidaysburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4211940
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,676
• Composite: 46.1/100
• National rank: #2511
• State rank: #129 of 539 in PA

Livability — Allegheny

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cross Keys, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,115

Population outlook (Blair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 121,571 people
• By 2030: 117,966 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 109,174 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 99,542 · -18.1%
• By 2075: 76,775 · -36.8%
• By 2100: 54,326 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Blair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.5) · D 27.9% · R 71.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.3pp · 2024: -43.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.5 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.4 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.69%
• Current HPI: 258.7396
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B