281 Northland Ave · Buffalo, NY 14208

$174,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1920 3,885 sqft lot Est $249k · 30% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention investors, Great return on this investment property. Rents are 895 per month.

Key facts

• Updated electrical
• Large yard
• Full basement

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• FULL BASEMENT
• LARGE YARD
• FULL TEAR-OFF ROOF
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• NEWER MECHANICAL SYSTEMS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $174,999 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$248,676) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,858/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 723% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $175k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $169,749 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.32%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,676
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
88 Donaldson Rd	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,699 (+9%)	13mo	$217,000	$128	71
187 Chester St	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,456 (-7%)	1mo	$99,000	$68	64
273 Purdy St	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (-3%)	6mo	$90,000	$59	64
188 Waverly St	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,541 (-2%)	15mo	$264,000	$171	63
392 Humboldt Pkwy	0.44mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,602 (+2%)	10mo	$195,000	$122	62
146 Waverly St	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,456 (-7%)	8mo	$250,000	$172	58
15 Blaine Ave	0.37mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,615 (+3%)	19mo	$290,000	$180	56
109 Hughes Ave	0.37mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,687 (+8%)	10mo	$175,000	$104	54
131 Woodlawn Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,514 (-3%)	21mo	$240,000	$159	43
164 Harvard Pl	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,700 (+9%)	8mo	$344,000	$202	40
218 Glenwood Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,461 (-7%)	24mo	$247,000	$169	39
59 Landon St	0.64mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,424 (-9%)	15mo	$76,500	$54	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-11,894
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $10,919
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14208

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,858 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $174,999

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
179 Donaldson Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	3d	1	0.16mi
563 Humboldt Pkwy Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2004	$1,200	$0.60	24d	1	0.26mi
184 Butler Ave Unit 1545840P Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1496	$3,226	$2.16	14d	1	0.26mi
102 Florida St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1296	$1,650	$1.27	44d	1	0.34mi
73 Inter Park Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2080	$1,300	$0.62	14d	1	0.51mi
1786 Main St Unit 103 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	1110	$1,677	$1.51	44d	1	0.53mi
1786 Main St Unit 104 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1256	$1,875	$1.49	44d	1	0.53mi
76 Chester St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	14d	1	0.58mi
121 Humboldt Pkwy Unit B Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1265	$1,750	$1.38	44d	1	0.69mi
117 Humboldt Pkwy Unit A Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1105	$2,300	$2.08	44d	1	0.70mi
107 Humboldt Pkwy Unit A Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1172	$1,995	$1.70	44d	1	0.72mi
2 Agassiz Cir Unit A Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1076	$2,150	$2.00	24d	1	0.78mi
238 Oxford Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	24d	1	0.79mi
75 Inwood Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1175	$1,550	$1.32	44d	1	1.08mi
825 Forest Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	3d	1	1.15mi
825 Forest Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	24d	1	1.15mi
685 Auburn Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	14d	1	1.33mi
685 Auburn Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	44d	1	1.33mi
202 Summit Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2000	$2,400	$1.20	24d	1	1.38mi
888 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	899	$2,440	$2.71	24d	1	1.40mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,445	$1.21	14d	1	1.43mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,595	$1.34	14d	1	1.43mi
740 Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,995	$1.00	14d	1	1.44mi
117 Bidwell Pkwy Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1192	$1,500	$1.26	3d	1	1.47mi
569 Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	12d	1	1.48mi
517 Goodyear Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1559	$1,800	$1.15	19d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-26
   listed $174,999 Active
3. 2020-10-30
   soldstatus $71,000
4. 2020-10-29
   soldstatus $71,000 Closed Sale or Rented 87-char remark

   Show marketing remark (87 chars)

   Attention investors, Great return on this investment property. Rents are 895 per month.

5. 2020-09-30
   status Pending Sale 87-char remark

   Show marketing remark (87 chars)

   Attention investors, Great return on this investment property. Rents are 895 per month.

6. 2020-08-31
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 87-char remark

   Show marketing remark (87 chars)

   Attention investors, Great return on this investment property. Rents are 895 per month.

7. 2020-08-20
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 87-char remark

   Show marketing remark (87 chars)

   Attention investors, Great return on this investment property. Rents are 895 per month.

8. 2020-01-10
   listed $71,000 Active 87-char remark

   Show marketing remark (87 chars)

   Attention investors, Great return on this investment property. Rents are 895 per month.

9. 2017-02-03
   soldstatus $20,150 Closed Sale or Rented 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   * * * * HUD HOME * * * Hamlin Park diamond in the rough. This 2 story home has a lot to offer. Large backyard, formal dining room, large living room and decent size bedrooms. Natural hardwood floors throughout!! This home is open to owner occupants only - Beat the investors!!

10. 2017-01-04
    status Pending Sale 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    * * * * HUD HOME * * * Hamlin Park diamond in the rough. This 2 story home has a lot to offer. Large backyard, formal dining room, large living room and decent size bedrooms. Natural hardwood floors throughout!! This home is open to owner occupants only - Beat the investors!!

11. 2016-12-29
    listed $22,000 Active 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    * * * * HUD HOME * * * Hamlin Park diamond in the rough. This 2 story home has a lot to offer. Large backyard, formal dining room, large living room and decent size bedrooms. Natural hardwood floors throughout!! This home is open to owner occupants only - Beat the investors!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
• − Management: −$1,783
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $330
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$79
• After-tax cash flow: $3,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,572
• Household income: $48,476
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 723.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 72% White 15% Asian 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Hispanic 0%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Philippines
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.37%
• Current HPI: 459.2084
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+695.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $174,999 WNYREIS
• 2020-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-29 Sold (MLS) $71,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-09-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-08-31 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-08-20 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2020-01-10 Listed $71,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-02-03 Sold (MLS) $20,150 WNYREIS
• 2017-01-04 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2016-12-29 Listed $22,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $303 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.