1309 Smith St · Navasota, TX 77868

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 151 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 5,750 sqft lot $192/sqft · at area comps Est $225k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming, newly built home that seamlessly combines modern efficiency with classic cottage style. This move-in ready property boasts a bright, open-concept layout and high-quality finishes, perfect for easy living.

Key facts

• 5,750 sq ft lot
• Built 2025
• Listed 151 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.8% in Navasota — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#852 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Navasota ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #600 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 256 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $202,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.78%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,888
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: 2.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1204 Highgarden	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,115 (-7%)	10mo	$232,000	$208	63
1215 High St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-15%)	1mo	$222,000	$218	57
1216 High St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-15%)	7mo	$222,000	$218	53
1212 Highgarden	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-15%)	9mo	$222,000	$218	51
1115 Highgarden Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-15%)	14mo	$212,000	$207	46
429 N Judson St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	20mo	$212,500	$154	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-20,888
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $3,003
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77868

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,337 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$288 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,012

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1221 High St Navasota, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,900	$1.49	20d	1	0.39mi
118 Miller St Unit 1328087P Navasota, TX	2.0	1.0	904	$4,431	$4.90	5d	1	0.92mi
202 N Second St Navasota, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,025	$1.28	10d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $230,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $230,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $230,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $230,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $230,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-01-07
   listed $230,000 Active 230-char remark

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   Welcome to this charming, newly built home that seamlessly combines modern efficiency with classic cottage style. This move-in ready property boasts a bright, open-concept layout and high-quality finishes, perfect for easy living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,243
• − Management: −$2,243
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$619
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$148
• After-tax cash flow: $3,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home boasts a bright, open-concept layout and high-quality finishes, perfect for easy living.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to buyers
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navasota ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832190
• Math proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,326
• Composite: 26.5/100
• National rank: #7205
• State rank: #600 of 826 in TX

Livability — Navasota

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #852
• US rank: #15344

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Navasota, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,863

Population outlook (Grimes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,910 people
• By 2030: 29,539 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 30,648 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 31,698 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 34,351 · +18.8%
• By 2100: 33,565 · +16.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Black 17%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grimes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.3) · D 19.5% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.3pp · 2024: -60.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.3 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+44.2 2008: R+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.02%
• Current HPI: 206.7894
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Listed $230,000 HARMLS