2334 Sanbar Rd #96 · Graford, TX 76449

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 65 Days on market

Built 1983 Good condition 5,619 sqft lot $76/sqft · at area comps Est $70k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

So many improvements on this three bedroom, two bath property make it a must see! With nearly new HVAC, vinyl flooring, showers, vanity, refrigerator and water heater, plus exterior paint, skirting, and an oversized carport, there's little left for you to do besides add a bit of furniture and enjoy the amazing views from the large covered deck! Some furnishings are still in place and will convey and the outside patio furniture is a bonus that sure makes this a great place to start your summer lake life. Located on the back row of Golden Cove, overlooking the broadway waters of Possum Kingdom Lake, this well-kept home also has big meadow views and lots of friendly deer to watch. The covered parking offers easy storage for your boat or jet-skis and it's just minutes to the community boat ramp so you can be on the lake in no time. And when you're not on the boat, the swim cove is a great place to join your friends and neighbors for a leisurely day of floating, or enjoy the community activities held at the pavilion. The Golden Cove community is situated on good water and close to all the lake attractions, making it an ideal destination for weekends, holidays, or even a comfortable full-time residence. This is a leasehold property, so purchase applies only to the improvements on a lot leased from Oak Wood Properties; current lease terms are two years at a monthly rate of $865. The land owner is responsible for property taxes on the lot, meaning you pay less in taxes than you would for deeded land. Other amenities include maintenance of common areas, paved roads, on-site storage rental facility, and on-site rental cabins for overflow company.

Key facts

• Community boat ramp
• Vinyl flooring
• Paved roads

Tags

• NEARLY NEW HVAC
• VINYL FLOORING
• LARGE COVERED DECK
• COMMUNITY BOAT RAMP
• SWIM COVE
• PAVED ROADS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.7% vs local median 1.3% in Graford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#856 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Graford ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #817 of 1,141 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 465 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.24%
• DSCR: 4.88
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,435
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -0.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2334 Sanbar Rd #96	0.00mi	3/2.0	924 (0%)	0mo	$70,000	$76	100
2334 Sanbar Rd #98	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,062 (+15%)	12mo	$72,000	$68	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.05×
• Total profit: $79,450
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 90.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.50×
• Total profit: $186,195
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76449

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Active inventory: 465
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,416 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $1,425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,473	-5% $1,449	+0% $1,425	+5% $1,401	+10% $1,377
Rent	-10% $1,234	-5% $1,330	+0% $1,425	+5% $1,520	+10% $1,616
Rate	-1.0pp $1,460	-0.5pp $1,443	base $1,425	+0.5pp $1,407	+1.0pp $1,388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $70,000 Pending 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $70,000 Active Option Contract 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $70,000 Active Option Contract 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   status $70,000 Active Option Contract 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $70,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $70,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $70,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $70,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-05-19
   price $70,000 1669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1669 chars)

   So many improvements on this three bedroom, two bath property make it a must see! With nearly new HVAC, vinyl flooring, showers, vanity, refrigerator and water heater, plus exterior paint, skirting, and an oversized carport, there's little left for you to do besides add a bit of furniture and enjoy the amazing views from the large covered deck! Some furnishings are still in place and will convey and the outside patio furniture is a bonus that sure makes this a great place to start your summer lake life. Located on the back row of Golden Cove, overlooking the broadway waters of Possum Kingdom Lake, this well-kept home also has big meadow views and lots of friendly deer to watch. The covered parking offers easy storage for your boat or jet-skis and it's just minutes to the community boat ramp so you can be on the lake in no time. And when you're not on the boat, the swim cove is a great place to join your friends and neighbors for a leisurely day of floating, or enjoy the community activities held at the pavilion. The Golden Cove community is situated on good water and close to all the lake attractions, making it an ideal destination for weekends, holidays, or even a comfortable full-time residence. This is a leasehold property, so purchase applies only to the improvements on a lot leased from Oak Wood Properties; current lease terms are two years at a monthly rate of $865. The land owner is responsible for property taxes on the lot, meaning you pay less in taxes than you would for deeded land. Other amenities include maintenance of common areas, paved roads, on-site storage rental facility, and on-site rental cabins for overflow company.

10. 2026-04-02
    listed $75,000 Active 1669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1669 chars)

    So many improvements on this three bedroom, two bath property make it a must see! With nearly new HVAC, vinyl flooring, showers, vanity, refrigerator and water heater, plus exterior paint, skirting, and an oversized carport, there's little left for you to do besides add a bit of furniture and enjoy the amazing views from the large covered deck! Some furnishings are still in place and will convey and the outside patio furniture is a bonus that sure makes this a great place to start your summer lake life. Located on the back row of Golden Cove, overlooking the broadway waters of Possum Kingdom Lake, this well-kept home also has big meadow views and lots of friendly deer to watch. The covered parking offers easy storage for your boat or jet-skis and it's just minutes to the community boat ramp so you can be on the lake in no time. And when you're not on the boat, the swim cove is a great place to join your friends and neighbors for a leisurely day of floating, or enjoy the community activities held at the pavilion. The Golden Cove community is situated on good water and close to all the lake attractions, making it an ideal destination for weekends, holidays, or even a comfortable full-time residence. This is a leasehold property, so purchase applies only to the improvements on a lot leased from Oak Wood Properties; current lease terms are two years at a monthly rate of $865. The land owner is responsible for property taxes on the lot, meaning you pay less in taxes than you would for deeded land. Other amenities include maintenance of common areas, paved roads, on-site storage rental facility, and on-site rental cabins for overflow company.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,319
• − Management: −$2,319
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $16,997
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,079
• After-tax cash flow: $13,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Upgrades to the exterior and interior could significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting the exterior siding — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both upgrading the HVAC system — improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both installing new flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — enhances aesthetics and resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting the exterior siding — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both upgrading the HVAC system — improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both installing new flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — enhances aesthetics and resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,275
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #10225
• State rank: #817 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Graford

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #856
• US rank: #15394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,157

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.53%
• Current HPI: 241.6435
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $70,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $75,000 NTREIS