204 Myrtle Ln · South Mills, NC 27976

$414,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,176 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $442k · 6% under $65/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in Ready! Homeownership made easy at a price you'll love at South Mills. Featuring large homes, a pool, clubhouse and Camden County schools off Route 17. Lower taxes mean lower payments near Chesapeake. The Elder has it all. Step inside this 2-car garage single-family home, where a sprawling great room adjoins a gourmet kitchen with a large island that overlooks the dining area. A versatile flex room is ideal for a home office, hobby area or play space. Upstairs, two bedrooms each feature a large closet and share a hall bath with a third bedroom. Inside your owner's suite, you'll find a luxurious dual-vanity bath and two large closets.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Gourmet kitchen
• Dining area

Tags

• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• GREAT ROOM
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• DINING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has HOA managed by GOODMAN PROPERTY MANAGEMENT; HOA fee $65 per month; Association fee billed monthly; Warranty plan

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power
• Home design: Detached property; Traditional style; Two-story; Slab foundation; Simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Neighborhood: SOUTH MILLS LANDING; GPS directions available

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Energy Star appliances
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on 2nd floor; Additional bedrooms on 2nd floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double sink in primary bath; Walk-in closet; Foyer; Pantry; Spare room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-326 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $368k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#612 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Camden County Schools (rural): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #29 of 178 in NC (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grandy Primary (math 87% / reading 72%, grade A, #24 of 1,410 statewide, top 2%, 607 students, 32% FRL); Camden Intermediate (math 50% / reading 61%, grade B-, #76 of 475 statewide, top 16%, 440 students, 24% FRL); Camden County High (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 464 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 105 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Camden County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($403k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $330,000 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.37%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $441,728
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 Myrtle Ln	0.00mi	5/5.5	2,176 (0%)	3mo	$416,990	$192	86
204 Spencers Ave	0.40mi	5/3.0	2,160 (-1%)	3mo	$285,000	$132	75
235 Myrtle Ln	0.41mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,176 (0%)	6mo	$426,705	$196	71
111 Pampas St	0.41mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,176 (0%)	8mo	$408,405	$188	67
208 Myrtle Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-12%)	1mo	$413,125	$217	66
107 Pampas St	0.65mi	5/2.5	2,203 (+1%)	9mo	$403,490	$183	60
118 Jasmine Ct	0.41mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-12%)	1mo	$400,000	$210	54
108 Jasmine Ct	0.41mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-12%)	2mo	$394,725	$207	54
115 Pampas St	0.41mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-12%)	8mo	$385,980	$203	48
110 Jasmine Ct	0.41mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,903 (-12%)	6mo	$398,365	$209	48
125 Pampas St	0.65mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-12%)	3mo	$401,425	$211	41
105 Pampas St	0.65mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-12%)	7mo	$375,985	$198	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-40,381
• Equity at exit: $112,442

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-15,490
• Equity at exit: $128,888

Cash invested: $116,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27976

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$519 /mo · $6,225/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $-326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,713

Max offer price $367,831

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-39	-5% $-183	+0% $-326	+5% $-469	+10% $-613
Rent	-10% $-587	-5% $-456	+0% $-326	+5% $-196	+10% $-65
Rate	-1.0pp $-117	-0.5pp $-220	base $-326	+0.5pp $-433	+1.0pp $-543

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,748
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Pampas ST South Mills, NC	4.0	2.5	1903	$3,300	$1.73	0d	1	0.66mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Move in Ready! Homeownership made easy at a price you'll love at South Mills. Featuring large homes, a pool, clubhouse and Camden County schools off Route 17. Lower taxes mean lower payments near Chesapeake. The Elder has it all. Step inside this 2-car garage single-family home, where a sprawling great room adjoins a gourmet kitchen with a large island that overlooks the dining area. A versatile flex room is ideal for a home office, hobby area or play space. Upstairs, two bedrooms each feature a large closet and share a hall bath with a third bedroom. Inside your owner's suite, you'll find a luxurious dual-vanity bath and two large closets.

2. 2026-05-04
   status Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Move in Ready! Homeownership made easy at a price you'll love at South Mills. Featuring large homes, a pool, clubhouse and Camden County schools off Route 17. Lower taxes mean lower payments near Chesapeake. The Elder has it all. Step inside this 2-car garage single-family home, where a sprawling great room adjoins a gourmet kitchen with a large island that overlooks the dining area. A versatile flex room is ideal for a home office, hobby area or play space. Upstairs, two bedrooms each feature a large closet and share a hall bath with a third bedroom. Inside your owner's suite, you'll find a luxurious dual-vanity bath and two large closets.

3. 2026-04-17
   price $414,990

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Move in Ready! Homeownership made easy at a price you'll love at South Mills. Featuring large homes, a pool, clubhouse and Camden County schools off Route 17. Lower taxes mean lower payments near Chesapeake. The Elder has it all. Step inside this 2-car garage single-family home, where a sprawling great room adjoins a gourmet kitchen with a large island that overlooks the dining area. A versatile flex room is ideal for a home office, hobby area or play space. Upstairs, two bedrooms each feature a large closet and share a hall bath with a third bedroom. Inside your owner's suite, you'll find a luxurious dual-vanity bath and two large closets.

4. 2026-04-17
   price $414,990 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Move in Ready! Homeownership made easy at a price you'll love at South Mills. Featuring large homes, a pool, clubhouse and Camden County schools off Route 17. Lower taxes mean lower payments near Chesapeake. The Elder has it all. Step inside this 2-car garage single-family home, where a sprawling great room adjoins a gourmet kitchen with a large island that overlooks the dining area. A versatile flex room is ideal for a home office, hobby area or play space. Upstairs, two bedrooms each feature a large closet and share a hall bath with a third bedroom. Inside your owner's suite, you'll find a luxurious dual-vanity bath and two large closets.

5. 2026-04-13
   price $424,990
6. 2026-04-02
   historical

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Move in Ready! Homeownership made easy at a price you'll love at South Mills. Featuring large homes, a pool, clubhouse and Camden County schools off Route 17. Lower taxes mean lower payments near Chesapeake. The Elder has it all. Step inside this 2-car garage single-family home, where a sprawling great room adjoins a gourmet kitchen with a large island that overlooks the dining area. A versatile flex room is ideal for a home office, hobby area or play space. Upstairs, two bedrooms each feature a large closet and share a hall bath with a third bedroom. Inside your owner's suite, you'll find a luxurious dual-vanity bath and two large closets.

7. 2026-04-02
   listed $434,990 Active 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Move in Ready! Homeownership made easy at a price you'll love at South Mills. Featuring large homes, a pool, clubhouse and Camden County schools off Route 17. Lower taxes mean lower payments near Chesapeake. The Elder has it all. Step inside this 2-car garage single-family home, where a sprawling great room adjoins a gourmet kitchen with a large island that overlooks the dining area. A versatile flex room is ideal for a home office, hobby area or play space. Upstairs, two bedrooms each feature a large closet and share a hall bath with a third bedroom. Inside your owner's suite, you'll find a luxurious dual-vanity bath and two large closets.

8. 2026-04-02
   listed $434,990 Active

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Move in Ready! Homeownership made easy at a price you'll love at South Mills. Featuring large homes, a pool, clubhouse and Camden County schools off Route 17. Lower taxes mean lower payments near Chesapeake. The Elder has it all. Step inside this 2-car garage single-family home, where a sprawling great room adjoins a gourmet kitchen with a large island that overlooks the dining area. A versatile flex room is ideal for a home office, hobby area or play space. Upstairs, two bedrooms each feature a large closet and share a hall bath with a third bedroom. Inside your owner's suite, you'll find a luxurious dual-vanity bath and two large closets.

9. 2025-08-28
   price $410,755
10. 2025-08-28
    listed $410,755
11. 2025-08-28
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$6,225
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,168
• − Management: −$3,168
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$12,072
• Taxable loss: −$11,134
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,672
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camden County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700600
• Math proficiency: 56% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $59,622
• Composite: 51.97/100
• National rank: #1643
• State rank: #29 of 178 in NC

Livability — South Mills

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #612
• US rank: #22229

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Mills, NC
• Population (ZIP): 4,237

Population outlook (Camden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,980 people
• By 2030: 11,246 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 11,562 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 11,572 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 11,450 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 10,648 · -3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Portuguese 3% Romanian 3%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Camden

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.8) · D 24.2% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -32.0pp · 2024: -50.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.8 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+45.8 2012: R+34.0 2008: R+32.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.39%
• Current HPI: 174.2102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $414,990 REINMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $414,990 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $424,990 REINMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $434,990 REINMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $434,990 Hive MLS
• 2025-08-28 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $410,755 REINMLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $410,755 REINMLS