9717 Alamo · Lake Don Pedro, CA 95329

$246,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 244 Days on market

Built 1980 1.40 ac lot $161/sqft · 29% below area Est $350k · 29% under $12/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Back on market. Great opportunity to own a property with 1.4 acres with gorgeous views all around. This 2 bedroom (possible 3rd bedroom, 2 bath home boasts 1536 sq feet of living space. Open floor plan with cathedral ceilings. Sit on back deck and enjoy the sunset view. Club house for only $12.00 per month offers full gym, pool, spa, play ground area with full equipment and more. Don't miss out. Need some work in home and property, but at this price its worth it. NEWER Solar lease only $201.00 per month offers substantial savings.

Key facts

• 1.4 acres
• Full gym
• Sunset view

Tags

• 1.4 ACRES
• GORGEOUS VIEWS
• BACK DECK
• SUNSET VIEW
• CLUB HOUSE
• FULL GYM

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $246,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$349,670) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $247k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $247k).
• Recommended offer: $217k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Don Pedro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#867 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, housing B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mariposa County Unified (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 89 units permitted in Mariposa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Mariposa County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,272 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.55%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,670
• List price: $246,900
• Delta: -26.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9844 Banderilla Dr	0.60mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,547 (+1%)	0mo	$340,000	$220	61
9539-9539 Paraiso	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,603 (+4%)	8mo	$442,000	$276	48
9573 Dolorosa St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (-2%)	23mo	$339,000	$225	46
9791 Villarreal	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,386 (-10%)	13mo	$312,000	$225	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $39,342
• Equity at exit: $91,819

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $124,974
• Equity at exit: $128,073

Cash invested: $69,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95329

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,295
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,564/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,949

Max offer price $246,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,725
• Closing costs: $7,407
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14575 Avenida Central La Grange, CA	3.0	2.0	1982	$2,500	$1.26	13d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on market $246,900 Active 244 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $256,750 Active 243 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $256,750 Active 242 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $256,750 Active 241 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $256,750 Active 240 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   remarks 536-char remark
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $256,750 Active 238 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $256,750 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $256,750 Active 235 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $256,750 Active 234 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $256,750 Active 233 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $256,750 Active 232 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $256,750 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $256,750 Active 228 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $256,750 Active 227 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $256,750 Active 226 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $256,750 Active 225 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $256,750 Active 224 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,564 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,876 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$313/yr (+$26/mo · 20.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 44 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,830
• − Property taxes: −$1,564
• − Insurance: −$1,234
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$7,183
• Taxable income: $1,245
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$299
• After-tax cash flow: $4,922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mariposa County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623940
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,669
• Composite: 29.75/100
• National rank: #6438
• State rank: #282 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Don Pedro

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #867
• US rank: #23601

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Don Pedro, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,339

Population outlook (Mariposa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,956 people
• By 2030: 15,078 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 13,413 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 12,232 · -23.3%
• By 2075: 11,143 · -30.2%
• By 2100: 10,187 · -36.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mariposa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.1% · R 59.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+18.1 2016: R+23.2 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.58%
• Current HPI: 163.9206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,564 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.