357 E Kincaid Rd · Atoka, NM 88210

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,150 sqft · SingleFamily · 215 Days on market

Built 1975 Fair condition 4.98 ac lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are looking for a house on 5 acres, this is the one for you. With an affordable price tag, this home sitting on a nice pice of land comes to you along side 2 wells and 2 septic tanks. One with a new well pump and connections to the main home and another that is not connected but has potential to be used in conjunction with the secondary septic tank on the other half of the land that was intended for a mobile home set up. With the right dream and a little love this beautiful house can become your wonderful home.

Key facts

• New well pump
• 2 wells
• 5 acres

Tags

• 5 ACRES
• 2 WELLS
• 2 SEPTIC TANKS
• NEW WELL PUMP
• SECONDARY SEPTIC TANK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $675 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#99 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Artesia Public Schools (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #17 of 95 in NM (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.79%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $9,034
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $63,431
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88210

• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,692 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $675

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 215 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $210,000 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $210,000 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 201 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 200 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 199 DOM
13. 2026-04-06
    price $210,000 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    If you are looking for a house on 5 acres, this is the one for you. With an affordable price tag, this home sitting on a nice pice of land comes to you along side 2 wells and 2 septic tanks. One with a new well pump and connections to the main home and another that is not connected but has potential to be used in conjunction with the secondary septic tank on the other half of the land that was intended for a mobile home set up. With the right dream and a little love this beautiful house can become your wonderful home.

14. 2026-04-01
    status Active 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    If you are looking for a house on 5 acres, this is the one for you. With an affordable price tag, this home sitting on a nice pice of land comes to you along side 2 wells and 2 septic tanks. One with a new well pump and connections to the main home and another that is not connected but has potential to be used in conjunction with the secondary septic tank on the other half of the land that was intended for a mobile home set up. With the right dream and a little love this beautiful house can become your wonderful home.

15. 2026-03-17
    status Pending 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    If you are looking for a house on 5 acres, this is the one for you. With an affordable price tag, this home sitting on a nice pice of land comes to you along side 2 wells and 2 septic tanks. One with a new well pump and connections to the main home and another that is not connected but has potential to be used in conjunction with the secondary septic tank on the other half of the land that was intended for a mobile home set up. With the right dream and a little love this beautiful house can become your wonderful home.

16. 2026-01-26
    price $220,000 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    If you are looking for a house on 5 acres, this is the one for you. With an affordable price tag, this home sitting on a nice pice of land comes to you along side 2 wells and 2 septic tanks. One with a new well pump and connections to the main home and another that is not connected but has potential to be used in conjunction with the secondary septic tank on the other half of the land that was intended for a mobile home set up. With the right dream and a little love this beautiful house can become your wonderful home.

17. 2025-11-19
    price $225,000 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    If you are looking for a house on 5 acres, this is the one for you. With an affordable price tag, this home sitting on a nice pice of land comes to you along side 2 wells and 2 septic tanks. One with a new well pump and connections to the main home and another that is not connected but has potential to be used in conjunction with the secondary septic tank on the other half of the land that was intended for a mobile home set up. With the right dream and a little love this beautiful house can become your wonderful home.

18. 2025-10-27
    listed $245,000 Active 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    If you are looking for a house on 5 acres, this is the one for you. With an affordable price tag, this home sitting on a nice pice of land comes to you along side 2 wells and 2 septic tanks. One with a new well pump and connections to the main home and another that is not connected but has potential to be used in conjunction with the secondary septic tank on the other half of the land that was intended for a mobile home set up. With the right dream and a little love this beautiful house can become your wonderful home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,584
• − Management: −$2,584
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $5,064
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,215
• After-tax cash flow: $6,891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property is in fair condition with moderate repairs and maintenance needed. Improvements to landscaping and organization would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen clutter — Cluttered kitchen counters and floor
• Minor Bathroom clutter — Cluttered bathroom counters and floor
• Moderate Landscaping — Sparse and desert-like landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improving landscaping and curb appeal would increase both resale and rental value
• Both Kitchen and bathroom organization — Organizing the kitchen and bathroom would increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen clutter · Cluttered kitchen counters and floor	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom clutter · Cluttered bathroom counters and floor	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Sparse and desert-like landscaping	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$4,000–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improving landscaping and curb appeal would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom organization — Organizing the kitchen and bathroom would increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Artesia Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500120
• Math proficiency: 29% —
• Reading proficiency: 42% —
• Median HH income: $51,397
• Composite: 33.48/100
• National rank: #10522
• State rank: #17 of 95 in NM

Livability — Atoka

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #18287

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 18,542
• Household income: $79,632
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 159.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 40% Two or more races 19% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -238.85%
• Current HPI: 115.6107
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $210,000 NMMLS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — NMMLS
• 2026-03-17 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $220,000 NMMLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $225,000 NMMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $245,000 NMMLS