135 #54 Dr Unit Hillview 54 · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$73,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,117 sqft · Condo · 104 Days on market

Built 1975 Good condition $65/sqft · 27% below area Est $100k · 27% under $364/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready & a great value, this well-maintained Lakewood condo features brand-new carpet and fresh paint throughout. Located in a private setting backing up to a wooded area, this condo offers the perfect combination of comfort and convenience. Excellent full-time residence, vacation getaway, or investment property. Energy-efficient windows help keep utility costs low, while tile flooring in key areas adds durability and style. An additional sleeping nook adjoining one bedroom provides flexible space for guests or a home office.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• Tile flooring
• Private setting

Tags

• BRAND-NEW CARPET
• FRESH PAINT
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• TILE FLOORING
• ADDITIONAL SLEEPING NOOK
• PRIVATE SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $73k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($59/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.5% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shirley Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #419 of 454 statewide, top 93%, 180 students, 100% FRL); Shirley High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 139 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 73% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 43% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shirley School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 339 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $157 of equity ($505 loan paydown + $-348 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.

Recommended offer $66,430 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.29%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,721
• List price: $73,000
• Delta: -26.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Hillview Unit Dr68	0.11mi	2/1.5	1,117 (0%)	0mo	$90,000	$81	95
135 Hillview Dr #20	0.11mi	2/1.5	1,117 (0%)	1mo	$97,000	$87	94
135 Hillview Dr #19	0.11mi	2/1.5	1,117 (0%)	2mo	$97,000	$87	93
135 Hillview Dr #29	0.11mi	2/1.5	1,117 (0%)	3mo	$77,000	$69	92
127 Short Haven Ln	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,130 (+1%)	2mo	$119,000	$105	81
158 Dunn Holw	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+2%)	2mo	$107,500	$94	74
224 Pine Knot Rd	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,176 (+5%)	1mo	$150,000	$128	74
234 Snead Dr	1.42mi	2/2.0	1,176 (+5%)	1mo	$155,000	$132	54
601 Dave Creek Pkwy #82	0.63mi	2/1.5	938 (-16%)	1mo	$85,000	$91	45
601 Dave Creek Pkwy #81	0.63mi	2/1.5	938 (-16%)	1mo	$78,000	$83	45
601 Woodlawn Dr #23	1.04mi	2/2.0	1,300 (+16%)	0mo	$77,600	$60	38
232 Snead Dr	1.44mi	2/2.0	1,374 (+23%)	2mo	$159,000	$116	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-3,203
• Equity at exit: $19,475

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $6,375
• Equity at exit: $22,076

Cash invested: $20,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 2 under contract
• Median asking: $101,000 ($90/sqft)
• Median days on market: 65 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -1.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,106 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$383
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$91 /mo · $1,095/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$364
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,099

Max offer price $73,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $55	-5% $30	+0% $5	+5% $-20	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-39	+0% $5	+5% $49	+10% $92
Rate	-1.0pp $42	-0.5pp $23	base $5	+0.5pp $-14	+1.0pp $-33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,250
• Closing costs: $2,190
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 Ambrose Ln Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,000	$0.78	62d	1	0.32mi
104 Chelsea Dr #49 Fairfield Bay, AR	2.0	1.5	938	$950	$1.01	62d	1	0.41mi
104 Chelsea Dr Fairfield Bay, AR	2.0	1.5	938	$950	$1.01	0d	1	0.63mi
601 Dave Creek Pkwy #86 Fairfield Bay, AR	1.0	1.0	750	$795	$1.06	0d	1	0.63mi
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	140d	1	0.67mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $46Additional association fee listed as $156

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking pads for 2 cars
• Utilities: Public waterCommunity sewerElectric via cooperative
• Home design: Condo (Lakewood Hills Condo)Inside city limits
• Construction: Metal/vinyl sidingArchitectural shingle roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road accessResort property with extra landscapingLocated in a subdivisionRiver/lake area

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stoveElectric rangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalRefrigerator stays
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatCentral electric cooling
• Interior features: Carpet and tile flooringBonus room

HOA detail $364/mo · $4,368/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $73,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $73,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $73,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $73,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $73,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $73,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $73,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $73,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $73,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $73,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $73,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $73,000 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $73,000 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $73,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $73,000 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $73,000 Active 83 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $73,000 Active 82 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $73,000 Active 79 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $73,000 Active 78 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $73,000 Active 77 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $73,000 Active 76 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $73,000 Active 75 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $73,000 Active 74 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $73,000 Active 73 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $73,000 Active 72 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $73,000 Active 71 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $73,000 Active 70 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $73,000 Active 69 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $73,000 Active 68 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $73,000 Active 67 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $73,000 Active 66 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $73,000 Active 65 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $73,000 Active 64 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $73,000 Active 63 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $73,000 Active 62 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $73,000 Active 61 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $73,000 Active 60 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $73,000 Active 59 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $73,000 Active 58 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $73,000 Active 57 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $73,000 Active 56 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $73,000 Active 55 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $73,000 Active 54 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $73,000 Active 53 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $73,000 Active 52 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $73,000 Active 49 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $73,000 Active 48 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $73,000 Active 47 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $73,000 Active 45 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $73,000 Active 43 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,089
• − Property taxes: −$1,095
• − Insurance: −$365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,061
• − Management: −$1,061
• − HOA: −$4,368
• − Depreciation: −$2,124
• Taxable loss: −$897
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$215
• After-tax cash flow: $274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,585–$16,755 screening

This move-in ready townhouse is in good condition with minor repairs needed. It offers a great value with a private setting and access to a pool.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Standard cabinets with minor wear
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Standard fixtures with minor wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Shirley Elementary School F AR #419/454 Nat'l #38,100/41,679 High Shirley High School F AR #164/292 Nat'l #11,887/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• County: Van Buren · 15,459 people
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264
• Household income: $54,508
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $46Additional association fee listed as $156

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking pads for 2 cars
• Utilities: Public waterCommunity sewerElectric via cooperative
• Home design: Condo (Lakewood Hills Condo)Inside city limits
• Construction: Metal/vinyl sidingArchitectural shingle roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road accessResort property with extra landscapingLocated in a subdivisionRiver/lake area

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stoveElectric rangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalRefrigerator stays
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatCentral electric cooling
• Interior features: Carpet and tile flooringBonus room

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $73,000 CARMLS