Chestnut II Plan · Crandall, TX 75114

$242,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily · 786 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home has a classic layout with everything a growing family needs. The open living area includes a family room, dining area and modern kitchen which has a door to the backyard. Three bedrooms connect to the living area, including the owner's suite, which has a private bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open living area
• Private bathroom

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• CLASSIC LAYOUT
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $242,499 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $260,423.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $242k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nola Kathryn Wilson El (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 596 students, 59% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 41% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 956 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 786 days — a 12% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,506 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 786 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,423
• List price: $242,499
• Delta: -6.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2228 Starling St	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-0%)	2mo	$264,000	$181	88
2071 Wildcat Trl	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+1%)	2mo	$244,900	$165	88
2222 Kingfisher	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,614 (+10%)	0mo	$250,000	$155	76
2076 Puma St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,515 (+4%)	2mo	$230,000	$152	64
2529 Talus Run	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-4%)	3mo	$267,240	$191	64
3113 Prairie Hill Grv	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,514 (+4%)	0mo	$214,900	$142	62
2905 Mourning Dove Trl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+4%)	0mo	$220,000	$145	62
2319 Felly Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-9%)	2mo	$245,740	$184	53
2810 Bakers Bnd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-9%)	2mo	$275,740	$207	53
2210 Bosque Trl	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-9%)	1mo	$248,740	$186	52
2205 Bosque Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-9%)	1mo	$249,730	$187	50
2220 Bosque Trl	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,582 (+8%)	1mo	$324,240	$205	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-53,392
• Equity at exit: $38,830

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-60,820
• Equity at exit: $22,517

Cash invested: $72,918 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 53 active · 33 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.8 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $250,000 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 98 d
• This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 956
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,055 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,366
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$326 /mo · $3,906/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,278

Max offer price $234,923

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4	-5% $-86	+0% $-176	+5% $-266	+10% $-356
Rent	-10% $-339	-5% $-257	+0% $-176	+5% $-95	+10% $-14
Rate	-1.0pp $-45	-0.5pp $-110	base $-176	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-312

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,106
• Closing costs: $7,813
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2014 Serval Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$2,545	$1.58	2d	1	0.35mi
2043 Serval Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$2,100	$1.36	93d	1	0.47mi
2505 Milne Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	43d	1	0.48mi
3324 Price Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,995	$1.54	66d	1	0.72mi
2117 Ocelot St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,875	$1.27	93d	1	0.73mi
2127 Ocelot St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,200	$1.59	93d	1	0.77mi
2960 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	93d	1	0.79mi
2530 Russell St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,100	$1.36	26d	1	0.80mi
2530 Russell St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,100	$1.36	28d	1	0.80mi
3104 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,675	$1.32	74d	1	0.81mi
2961 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,855	$1.47	43d	1	0.81mi
3101 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,645	$1.30	38d	1	0.83mi
3103 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,579	$1.10	32d	1	0.84mi
2973 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,665	$1.16	93d	1	0.84mi
2980 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,860	$1.47	37d	1	0.85mi
2980 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,860	$1.47	40d	1	0.85mi
3121 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	93d	1	0.86mi
2983 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,649	$1.15	23d	1	0.87mi
3352 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	48d	1	0.89mi
2991 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,895	$1.50	43d	1	0.90mi
4171 Silverstein St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,900	$1.45	43d	1	0.93mi
4152 Silverstein St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,925	$1.52	74d	1	0.94mi
2204 Boiling Springs Rd Crandall, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1533	$2,331	$1.52	0d	6	0.95mi
3007 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,950	$1.35	43d	1	0.96mi
3315 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,685	$1.17	93d	1	1.01mi
3702 Haydon Hill Rd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	4d	1	1.03mi
3072 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,500	$1.47	74d	1	1.20mi
2306 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	93d	1	1.23mi
2302 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	52d	1	1.24mi
2294 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,815	$1.43	74d	1	1.25mi
2402 Hesperus Ave Crandall, TX	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,745	$1.73	2d	1	1.26mi
1322 Olivewood Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,100	$1.44	48d	1	1.27mi
1322 Olivewood Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,100	$1.44	56d	1	1.27mi
2403 Hesperus Ave Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,750	$1.21	21d	1	1.27mi
2603 Khaju Grv Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,699	$1.34	52d	1	1.31mi
2504 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,799	$1.25	93d	1	1.33mi
2511 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,844	$1.49	17d	1	1.33mi
307 E Trunk St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$2,200	$1.40	21d	1	1.35mi
204 Fox Run Crandall, TX	3.0	1.5	1034	$1,450	$1.40	54d	1	1.36mi
4624 Verdin St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,850	$1.33	30d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $242,499 Active 786 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $242,499 Active 784 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $242,499 Active 783 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $242,499 Active 782 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $242,499 Active 781 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $242,499 Active 778 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $242,499 Active 777 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $242,499 Active 776 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $242,499 Active 775 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $242,499 Active 773 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $242,499 Active 771 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $242,499 Active 770 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $242,499 Active 769 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $242,499 Active 768 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $242,499 Active 767 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $242,499 Active 765 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $242,499 Active 764 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $242,499 Active 763 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $242,499 Active 762 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $242,499 Active 761 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $242,499 Active 760 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $242,499 Active 759 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $242,499 Active 758 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $242,499 Active 757 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $242,499 Active 756 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $242,499 Active 754 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $242,499 Active 753 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $242,499 Active 752 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $242,499 Active 751 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $242,499 Active 750 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $242,499 Active 749 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $242,499 Active 748 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $242,499 Active 747 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $242,499 Active 746 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $242,499 Active 745 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $242,499 Active 743 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $242,499 Active 741 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $242,499 Active 739 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $242,499 Active 738 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $242,499 Active 735 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $242,499 Active 734 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $242,499 Active 733 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $242,499 Active 732 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $242,499 Active 730 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $242,499 Active 726 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $242,499 Active 725 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $242,499 Active 724 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $242,499 Active 721 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $242,499 Active 720 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $242,499 Active 719 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,661
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,588
• − Property taxes: −$3,906
• − Insurance: −$1,302
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,973
• − Management: −$1,973
• − Depreciation: −$7,576
• Taxable loss: −$6,657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,598
• After-tax cash flow: $-517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with a classic layout and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Nola Kathryn Wilson El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Crandall Middle F TX #646/1,662 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Crandall H S F TX #713/1,632 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Crandall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #10022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 9,333
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2024-09-29 Price Changed $242,499 Zillow
• 2024-09-03 Price Changed $239,499 Zillow
• 2024-09-01 Price Changed $237,499 Zillow
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $234,999 Zillow
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $233,999 Zillow
• 2024-06-27 Price Changed $229,999 Zillow
• 2024-06-18 Price Changed $227,999 Zillow
• 2024-06-13 Listed $224,999 Zillow