4121 Chesapeake Ln · North Highlands, CA 95660

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 214 Days on market

Built 1972 Est $102k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home comes with a 2 year roof certification. Welcome to the all age Fairway Estates Gated MHP. Amenities include pool, spa, laundry facilities, guest parking, secured gate, club house and onsite property management. Spacious 2 bedroom (could make a 3rd room) 2 bath home with brand new laminate floors, large open windows, built-in wall dining buffet. Large galley style kitchen with newly installed beautiful wood counter tops, breakfast bar area, all appliances stay. Off the kitchen is another living area (family room) with an area for a full size washer and dryer, patio door that leads to your outside patio area. Both bedrooms are generous in size with built-in cabinets within the closets, a

Key facts

• Laundry facilities
• Guest parking
• Spa

Tags

• FAIRWAY ESTATES GATED MHP
• POOL
• SPA
• LAUNDRY FACILITIES
• GUEST PARKING
• SECURED GATE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community: No
• Financial info: Land lease in place
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; Off-street parking; Guest parking available
• Security: Gated park entry
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Individual electric meter; 220V in laundry; Cable available; Internet available
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Double wide; Entry through gated park (gate open 7am–7pm)
• Construction: Built in 1972; Shingle roof; Vinyl skirting; Updated/remodeled condition
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Corner lot; Regular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Gas cooktop; Range hood; Dishwasher; Disposal; Breakfast area; Kitchen island; Wood counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible 3)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double sinks; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Porch steps with railing; Covered and uncovered patio areas; Window coverings and window screens; Dining/Living combo
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with hookups; Inside laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $898 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 4.1% in North Highlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#523 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, crime F.
• Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.47%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $102,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5040 Jackson St #60	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$75,000	$52	78
5064 - 5477 S Valley Forge Ln #25	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-3%)	7mo	$88,900	$64	72
5040 Jackson St #110	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$81,500	$57	71
4133 Potomac Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,298 (-10%)	10mo	$100,000	$77	68
5040 Jackson St #44	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	9mo	$74,000	$48	67
5040 Jackson St #54	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+5%)	10mo	$75,000	$50	61
4139 Minute Man Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,283 (-11%)	11mo	$92,000	$72	60
4130 Annapolis Ln #159	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,225 (-15%)	9mo	$107,500	$88	59
3655 N Ohio Ln #87	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,522 (+6%)	13mo	$120,000	$79	53
5040 Jackson St #149	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	12mo	$88,000	$71	52
5040 Jackson St #76	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (+10%)	9mo	$85,000	$54	51
4963 Eleven Oaks Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+7%)	6mo	$140,000	$91	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $46,151
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $136,289
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95660

• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $237/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $898

Break-even live

Break-even rent $742

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4020 Tricia Way Unit 4688001002 North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	43d	1	0.15mi
4008 Tricia Way North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	12d	1	0.17mi
5123 Shell St North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	912	$1,950	$2.14	1d	1	0.48mi
4930 Polk St North Highlands, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$1,795	$1.91	1d	3	0.50mi
3731 Scallop Ct North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$2,150	$2.33	43d	1	0.55mi
4561 Ashcroft Ave Unit 52 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,395	$1.55	1d	1	0.63mi
4561 Ashcroft Ave Apt 49 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	888	$1,499	$1.69	1d	1	0.63mi
3609 Myrtle Ave North Highlands, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	1d	2	0.66mi
5001 Date Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1106	$2,400	$2.17	1d	1	0.70mi
3517 Myrtle Ave North Highlands, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,750	$1.94	3d	1	0.76mi
5048 Date Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,588	$1.59	43d	1	0.78mi
4716 Tulane Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1303	$2,450	$1.88	23d	1	0.79mi
5516 Palmdale Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1115	$2,250	$2.02	20d	1	0.85mi
4255 Winding Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,995	$1.53	7d	1	0.92mi
4815 College Oak Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	1000	$1,662	$1.66	7d	2	0.92mi
4215 Palm Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,660	$2.14	1d	3	1.02mi
5625 San Vincente Way North Highlands, CA	3.0	1.0	875	$2,150	$2.46	1d	1	1.08mi
4901 Little Oak Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,540	$1.68	1d	7	1.10mi
5415 College Oak Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,725	$2.03	1d	3	1.11mi
5614 Hillsdale Blvd Unit A Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	933	$1,450	$1.55	22d	1	1.12mi
5443 College Oak Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	821	$1,850	$2.25	43d	3	1.16mi
5012 Sunshine Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	970	$1,775	$1.83	10d	1	1.16mi
5600 Walerga Rd #4 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$1,700	$1.84	1d	1	1.17mi
5800 Hamilton St Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	823	$1,770	$2.15	1d	4	1.17mi
4815 Mary Kate Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,850	$1.68	43d	1	1.18mi
4821 Mary Kate Dr Unit 4823 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,675	$1.60	1d	1	1.19mi
5674 Hillsdale Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	933	$1,600	$1.71	1d	1	1.21mi
5525 Missie Way Unit 8346003001/85 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,985	$1.99	1d	1	1.23mi
5733 San Vincente Way North Highlands, CA	3.0	1.0	925	$2,195	$2.37	2d	1	1.25mi
Venuto Way North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	906	$2,095	$2.31	10d	2	1.27mi
5129 Myrtle Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.5	1275	$1,895	$1.49	43d	1	1.28mi
3610 Auburn Blvd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1140	$2,395	$2.10	7d	1	1.36mi
4758 Greenholme Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$1,595	$1.73	43d	1	1.37mi
6037 N Haven Dr North Highlands, CA	3.0	1.0	884	$2,150	$2.43	1d	1	1.46mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $237 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$523/yr (+$44/mo · 220.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$237
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $9,681
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,323
• After-tax cash flow: $8,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twin Rivers Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601332
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,481
• Composite: 30.67/100
• National rank: #11437
• State rank: #970 of 1400 in CA

Livability — North Highlands

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #523
• US rank: #17613

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Highlands, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 56,900
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,451
• Household income: $68,235
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 25% Russian/Polish/Slavic 9% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -273.83%
• Current HPI: 438.1022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.69%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $237 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.