38 Open Range Trl · Willis, TX 77318

$94,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 221 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2025 Good condition $78/sqft · 21% below area Est $120k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.2

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this classic home nestled in the heart of a family-friendly area in Willis. With an open concept floor plan, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1153 sq. ft. of living space, there is plenty of room for everyone. Be in close proximity of great schools, shopping, and restaurants. SETTLE DOWN WITHOUT HAVING TO SETTLE FOR LESS. Come visit today to see why this is where you need to settle down. Be sure to ask about our current promotions.

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 220 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.2% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parmley El (math 39% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 625 students, 72% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1387 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.69%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,000
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -20.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11614 Vistawood St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	4mo	$139,900	$115	69
8786 Scarlet Oak	0.85mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	3mo	$62,900	$52	63
9871 Arbor Oak	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	4mo	$70,000	$58	62
15185 Ridgepoint Cir	0.86mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	5mo	$120,000	$99	61
12751 Paradise View Ct W	0.95mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-8%)	9mo	$140,000	$125	44
12602 Paradise View Ct	0.82mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+12%)	1mo	$200,000	$146	43
8888 Water Oak St	0.85mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-8%)	13mo	$195,000	$174	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $3,047
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $16,842
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 59 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 70.8 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $114,900 ($96/sqft)
• Median days on market: 221 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1387
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,270 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,424/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $830

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $413	-5% $380	+0% $347	+5% $315	+10% $282
Rent	-10% $247	-5% $297	+0% $347	+5% $398	+10% $448
Rate	-1.0pp $395	-0.5pp $372	base $347	+0.5pp $323	+1.0pp $298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10090 Calendar St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	920	$1,400	$1.52	7d	1	0.29mi
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	93d	1	0.49mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	93d	1	0.49mi
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	93d	1	0.50mi
9992 Calendar St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	93d	1	0.53mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	93d	1	0.63mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	52d	1	0.63mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	2d	1	1.35mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	53d	1	1.35mi
14541 Enchanted Waters Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,300	$0.96	7d	1	1.36mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	93d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-07-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 221 DOM
2. 2026-07-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 220 DOM
3. 2026-07-11
   days on market $94,900 Active 219 DOM
4. 2026-07-10
   days on market $94,900 Active 218 DOM
5. 2026-07-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 217 DOM
6. 2026-07-07
   days on market $94,900 Active 215 DOM
7. 2026-07-06
   days on market $94,900 Active 214 DOM
8. 2026-07-06
   days on market $94,900 Active 213 DOM
9. 2026-07-05
   days on market $94,900 Active 212 DOM
10. 2026-07-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-07-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-07-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-06-30
    days on market $94,900 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-06-29
    days on market $94,900 Active 207 DOM
15. 2026-06-28
    days on market $94,900 Active 206 DOM
16. 2026-06-27
    days on market $94,900 Active 205 DOM
17. 2026-06-26
    days on market $94,900 Active 204 DOM
18. 2026-06-24
    days on market $94,900 Active 202 DOM
19. 2026-06-22
    days on market $94,900 Active 200 DOM
20. 2026-06-21
    days on market $94,900 Active 199 DOM
21. 2026-06-18
    days on market $94,900 Active 196 DOM
22. 2026-06-17
    days on market $94,900 Active 195 DOM
23. 2026-06-16
    days on market $94,900 Active 194 DOM
24. 2026-06-15
    days on market $94,900 Active 193 DOM
25. 2026-06-13
    days on market $94,900 Active 191 DOM
26. 2026-06-09
    days on market $94,900 Active 187 DOM
27. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,900 Active 186 DOM
28. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 185 DOM
29. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,900 Active 182 DOM
30. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 181 DOM
31. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 180 DOM
32. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 179 DOM
33. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 178 DOM
34. 2025-12-04
    listed $94,900 Active 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    Welcome to this classic home nestled in the heart of a family-friendly area in Willis. With an open concept floor plan, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1153 sq. ft. of living space, there is plenty of room for everyone. Be in close proximity of great schools, shopping, and restaurants. SETTLE DOWN WITHOUT HAVING TO SETTLE FOR LESS. Come visit today to see why this is where you need to settle down. Be sure to ask about our current promotions.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,424
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,219
• − Management: −$1,219
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $2,826
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$678
• After-tax cash flow: $3,491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathroom. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for a new owner or tenant. Consider painting the exterior and interior, landscaping, and adding smart home features to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Smart locks can improve security and convenience for both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for both buyers and tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Parmley El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Lynn Lucas Middle F TX #1,156/1,662 Nat'l #9,659/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Listed $94,900 Zillow