905 Apple Grove Ct · Highland Springs, VA 23223

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1985 10,210 sqft lot Est $242k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

QUAINT, AND COZY 3 BEDROOM RANCH, WITH 2 DETACHED STORAGE SHEDS, CONVEYING AS IS, LARGER SHED IS ELECTRICALLY WIRED. LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN WITH NEWER RANGE, AND REFRIGERATOR DOES CONVEY. CARPET INSTALLED IN 2006, NEWER HOT WATER HEATER 2005, ROOF REPLACED IN 2005. BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED WITH FRUIT AND VEGETABLE PLANTS, AND TREES. DECK ON THE REAR, VINYL SIDED. HOUSE SITS IN CUL DE SAC. FENCED AREA IN REAR IDEAL FOR GARDENERS.

Key facts

• Ranch home
• Natural light
• Inviting interior

Tags

• RANCH HOME
• INVITING INTERIOR
• NATURAL LIGHT
• DECK FOR GRILLING
• PLENTIFUL PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-545/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.9% in Highland Springs — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#196 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Highland Springs Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,098 of 1,108 statewide, top 100%, 532 students, 88% FRL); Fairfield Middle (math 29% / reading 43%, grade F, #326 of 342 statewide, top 95%, 987 students, 85% FRL); Highland Springs High (math 33% / reading 67%, grade D+, #298 of 319 statewide, top 93%, 2,089 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 34% district-wide (53 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Henrico County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 343 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $225k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,734 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.87%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,920
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
905 Apple Grove Ct	0.00mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	1mo	$235,000	$245	100
936 Pleasant St	0.11mi	3/1.5	976 (+2%)	6mo	$245,500	$252	85
5711 Yates Ln	0.44mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	9mo	$235,000	$245	71
5517 Jefferson St	0.48mi	3/1.5	960 (0%)	13mo	$254,000	$265	65
6 Emerson St	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,057 (+10%)	1mo	$270,000	$255	58
214 Lowell St	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,104 (+15%)	2mo	$280,000	$254	49
302 Glinhurst Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,028 (+7%)	19mo	$200,000	$195	38
174 E Cedar Fork Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,052 (+10%)	24mo	$242,500	$231	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-33,304
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-6,093
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23223

• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 343
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,737 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,731/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,795

Max offer price $216,970

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $18	+0% $-45	+5% $-109	+10% $-173
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-114	+0% $-45	+5% $23	+10% $92
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $12	base $-45	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5951 Tiger Lily Ln Richmond, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1080	$1,592	$1.47	3d	12	0.70mi
500 S Laburnum Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,950	$1.95	21d	1	0.76mi
210 Natchez Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,850	$1.71	4d	1	0.81mi
11 N Laburnum Ave Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	784	$1,339	$1.71	4d	20	0.96mi
1005 W Nine Mile Rd Henrico, VA	2.0	1.0	783	$1,345	$1.72	45d	1	1.14mi
1005 W Nine Mile Rd Unit J Henrico, VA	2.0	1.0	783	$1,395	$1.78	25d	1	1.14mi
120 Barker Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,597	$1.50	4d	1	1.15mi
4431 Lakefield Mews Dr Henrico, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	899	$1,664	$1.85	3d	19	1.33mi
4123 E Wood Harbor Ct Henrico, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,726	$1.83	3d	16	1.38mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   status Active
3. 2026-03-04
   listed $225,000 Active
4. 2010-08-03
   historical
5. 2010-02-12
   listed $129,000
6. 2007-11-09
   soldstatus $127,000 428-char remark

   Show marketing remark (428 chars)

   QUAINT, AND COZY 3 BEDROOM RANCH, WITH 2 DETACHED STORAGE SHEDS, CONVEYING AS IS, LARGER SHED IS ELECTRICALLY WIRED. LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN WITH NEWER RANGE, AND REFRIGERATOR DOES CONVEY. CARPET INSTALLED IN 2006, NEWER HOT WATER HEATER 2005, ROOF REPLACED IN 2005. BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED WITH FRUIT AND VEGETABLE PLANTS, AND TREES. DECK ON THE REAR, VINYL SIDED. HOUSE SITS IN CUL DE SAC. FENCED AREA IN REAR IDEAL FOR GARDENERS.

7. 2007-11-09
   soldstatus $127,000

   Show marketing remark (428 chars)

   QUAINT, AND COZY 3 BEDROOM RANCH, WITH 2 DETACHED STORAGE SHEDS, CONVEYING AS IS, LARGER SHED IS ELECTRICALLY WIRED. LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN WITH NEWER RANGE, AND REFRIGERATOR DOES CONVEY. CARPET INSTALLED IN 2006, NEWER HOT WATER HEATER 2005, ROOF REPLACED IN 2005. BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED WITH FRUIT AND VEGETABLE PLANTS, AND TREES. DECK ON THE REAR, VINYL SIDED. HOUSE SITS IN CUL DE SAC. FENCED AREA IN REAR IDEAL FOR GARDENERS.

8. 2007-11-09
   soldstatus $127,000

   Show marketing remark (428 chars)

   QUAINT, AND COZY 3 BEDROOM RANCH, WITH 2 DETACHED STORAGE SHEDS, CONVEYING AS IS, LARGER SHED IS ELECTRICALLY WIRED. LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN WITH NEWER RANGE, AND REFRIGERATOR DOES CONVEY. CARPET INSTALLED IN 2006, NEWER HOT WATER HEATER 2005, ROOF REPLACED IN 2005. BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED WITH FRUIT AND VEGETABLE PLANTS, AND TREES. DECK ON THE REAR, VINYL SIDED. HOUSE SITS IN CUL DE SAC. FENCED AREA IN REAR IDEAL FOR GARDENERS.

9. 2007-08-13
   listed $129,950 428-char remark

   Show marketing remark (428 chars)

   QUAINT, AND COZY 3 BEDROOM RANCH, WITH 2 DETACHED STORAGE SHEDS, CONVEYING AS IS, LARGER SHED IS ELECTRICALLY WIRED. LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN WITH NEWER RANGE, AND REFRIGERATOR DOES CONVEY. CARPET INSTALLED IN 2006, NEWER HOT WATER HEATER 2005, ROOF REPLACED IN 2005. BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED WITH FRUIT AND VEGETABLE PLANTS, AND TREES. DECK ON THE REAR, VINYL SIDED. HOUSE SITS IN CUL DE SAC. FENCED AREA IN REAR IDEAL FOR GARDENERS.

10. 2007-08-13
    listed $129,950

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    QUAINT, AND COZY 3 BEDROOM RANCH, WITH 2 DETACHED STORAGE SHEDS, CONVEYING AS IS, LARGER SHED IS ELECTRICALLY WIRED. LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN WITH NEWER RANGE, AND REFRIGERATOR DOES CONVEY. CARPET INSTALLED IN 2006, NEWER HOT WATER HEATER 2005, ROOF REPLACED IN 2005. BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED WITH FRUIT AND VEGETABLE PLANTS, AND TREES. DECK ON THE REAR, VINYL SIDED. HOUSE SITS IN CUL DE SAC. FENCED AREA IN REAR IDEAL FOR GARDENERS.

11. 1985-08-01
    soldstatus $54,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,731 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$114/yr (+$9/mo · 6.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,731
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,668
• − Management: −$1,668
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,493
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,078
• After-tax cash flow: $533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Highland Springs

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #6085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Highland Springs, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• City population: 8,347
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 54,659
• Household income: $55,731
• Rent vs Own: 56.2% rent · 43.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3530.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -257.81%
• Current HPI: 324.0589
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.38%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+309.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-03-24 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $225,000 CVRMLS
• 2010-08-03 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-02-12 Listed $129,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 2007-11-09 Sold (MLS) $127,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-11-09 Sold (MLS) $127,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-08-13 Listed $129,950 CVRMLS
• 2007-08-13 Listed $129,950 CVRMLS
• 1985-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $54,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,731 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.