1540 N Jefferson Ave · Ajo, AZ 85321

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 305 Days on market

Built 1951 0.34 ac lot $55/sqft · 51% below area ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICED TO SELL Well cared-for 3-bedroom home on a large double lot with desirable east-west exposure. Enjoy the fully enclosed front patio with ceramic tile--perfect for relaxing. Inside, the home features a cozy living room, kitchen with gas range and electric fridge, and a spacious utility room with indoor washer and dryer. Mini-splits provide efficient heating and cooling. The front yard is nicely manicured, with an RV gate and ample RV parking. Out back, there's a generous yard with a large BBQ area and plenty of room to entertain or expand.

Key facts

• Double lot
• Ceramic tile
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• FULLY ENCLOSED FRONT PATIO
• CERAMIC TILE
• KITCHEN WITH GAS RANGE
• SPACIOUS UTILITY ROOM
• INDOOR WASHER AND DRYER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $691 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 6.9% in Ajo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, employment D-.
• Ajo Unified District (4409) (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #343 of 501 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ajo Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #888 of 1,109 statewide, top 81%, 268 students, 75% FRL); Ajo High School (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #298 of 381 statewide, top 90%, 135 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 12% at this address vs 25% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ajo Unified District (4409) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.31%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,110
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -50.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
411 W North St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,321 (+4%)	3mo	$155,000	$117	78
361 W Placer St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-4%)	5mo	$147,000	$121	69
251 W 8th St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,321 (+4%)	6mo	$210,000	$159	68
901 N Sartillion Ave	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-7%)	7mo	$147,000	$124	51
601 N Thompson Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+8%)	1mo	$157,000	$115	49
211 W 1st Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,082 (-15%)	2mo	$160,000	$148	46
801 N Cameron Ave N	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-12%)	9mo	$49,000	$44	44
230 W 1st Ave	0.55mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,400 (+10%)	3mo	$215,000	$154	44
920 N Thompson Ave	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,136 (-11%)	11mo	$60,000	$53	41
321 W 3rd Ave	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (+12%)	13mo	$140,000	$98	39
600 N Thompson Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+10%)	12mo	$153,000	$109	36
2160 N Ajo Gila Bend Hwy	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,430 (+12%)	14mo	$46,216	$32	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $32,675
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.34×
• Total profit: $85,134
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85321

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,442 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $621/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $691

Break-even live

Break-even rent $567

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $731	-5% $711	+0% $691	+5% $671	+10% $652
Rent	-10% $577	-5% $634	+0% $691	+5% $748	+10% $805
Rate	-1.0pp $726	-0.5pp $709	base $691	+0.5pp $673	+1.0pp $655

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-20
   price $70,000 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   PRICED TO SELL Well cared-for 3-bedroom home on a large double lot with desirable east-west exposure. Enjoy the fully enclosed front patio with ceramic tile--perfect for relaxing. Inside, the home features a cozy living room, kitchen with gas range and electric fridge, and a spacious utility room with indoor washer and dryer. Mini-splits provide efficient heating and cooling. The front yard is nicely manicured, with an RV gate and ample RV parking. Out back, there's a generous yard with a large BBQ area and plenty of room to entertain or expand.

2. 2026-05-09
   price $99,900 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   PRICED TO SELL Well cared-for 3-bedroom home on a large double lot with desirable east-west exposure. Enjoy the fully enclosed front patio with ceramic tile--perfect for relaxing. Inside, the home features a cozy living room, kitchen with gas range and electric fridge, and a spacious utility room with indoor washer and dryer. Mini-splits provide efficient heating and cooling. The front yard is nicely manicured, with an RV gate and ample RV parking. Out back, there's a generous yard with a large BBQ area and plenty of room to entertain or expand.

3. 2025-12-29
   price $125,000 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   PRICED TO SELL Well cared-for 3-bedroom home on a large double lot with desirable east-west exposure. Enjoy the fully enclosed front patio with ceramic tile--perfect for relaxing. Inside, the home features a cozy living room, kitchen with gas range and electric fridge, and a spacious utility room with indoor washer and dryer. Mini-splits provide efficient heating and cooling. The front yard is nicely manicured, with an RV gate and ample RV parking. Out back, there's a generous yard with a large BBQ area and plenty of room to entertain or expand.

4. 2025-07-23
   listed $140,000 Active 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   PRICED TO SELL Well cared-for 3-bedroom home on a large double lot with desirable east-west exposure. Enjoy the fully enclosed front patio with ceramic tile--perfect for relaxing. Inside, the home features a cozy living room, kitchen with gas range and electric fridge, and a spacious utility room with indoor washer and dryer. Mini-splits provide efficient heating and cooling. The front yard is nicely manicured, with an RV gate and ample RV parking. Out back, there's a generous yard with a large BBQ area and plenty of room to entertain or expand.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $621 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $621 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$621
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,384
• − Management: −$1,384
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $7,606
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,826
• After-tax cash flow: $6,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ajo Unified District (4409)
• NCES district ID: 0400520
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $34,237
• Composite: 23.59/100
• National rank: #13264
• State rank: #343 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Ajo

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ajo, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 4,313

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 19% Native American 15% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.38%
• Current HPI: 173.7704
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-50.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $70,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $99,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $125,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $140,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $621 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.