834 Fleming Ct · Gonzalez, FL 32514

$170,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1981 0.38 ac lot $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Mid-century modern flip opportunity in a strong Pensacola neighborhood! This 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,338 sqft 2-story home sits on a quiet cul-de-sac and features a pool, Florida room, and tons of potential. The property needs a full renovation, but the layout, character, size, and surrounding comps make this a prime investment play. Perfect for an investor looking for a high-upside project in a desirable area. Bring this one back to life and take advantage of the ARV potential!

Key facts

• Mid-century modern
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Florida room

Tags

• MID-CENTURY MODERN
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• POOL
• FLORIDA ROOM
• FULL RENOVATION
• DESIRABLE AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Roads are county maintained
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $45 (includes association)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Total of 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Circuit breaker electric service; Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Resale single-family home; Two levels; Not attached to another property; Slab foundation
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: In-ground pool; Located on a cul-de-sac; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (approximately 12' x 9')
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor (approximately 14' x 12')
• Flooring: Carpet; Simulated wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and simulated wood flooring; Living/dining combo; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $497 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 221 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $130k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,450 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.53%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $358,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
760 Boulder Crk	0.26mi	3/2.0	2,239 (-6%)	5mo	$365,000	$163	69
11624 Clear Creek Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,346 (-2%)	6mo	$480,000	$205	65
3104 Lost Creek Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,235 (-6%)	1mo	$329,000	$147	60
11739 Old Course Rd	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,320 (-3%)	1mo	$330,000	$142	59
10969 Country Ostrich Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,267 (-5%)	1mo	$320,000	$141	57
11820 Old Course Rd	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,330 (-2%)	5mo	$317,500	$136	55
896 Lexington Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	2,198 (-8%)	7mo	$295,000	$134	55
2924 Fallen Tree Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,543 (+6%)	6mo	$350,000	$138	53
10889 Country Ostrich Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,266 (-5%)	3mo	$355,000	$157	50
958 Bucyrus Ln	0.72mi	3/3.0	2,632 (+10%)	2mo	$525,000	$199	48
11841 Old Course Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	2,065 (-14%)	4mo	$309,900	$150	45
901 Shadow Ridge Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,239 (-6%)	6mo	$399,900	$179	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.76% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-518
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $22,140
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32514

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,117 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,511/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,488

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
404 Buxton Way Cantonment, FL	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,495	$1.13	23d	1	1.23mi
1232 Greystone Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,100	$1.29	23d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-14
   status $170,000 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $170,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $170,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $170,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $170,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $170,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-05-21
    listed $170,000 Active
12. 1999-08-27
    soldstatus $129,900
13. 1989-11-01
    soldstatus $74,500
14. 1981-11-01
    soldstatus $77,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,511 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,511 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,511
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,033
• − Management: −$2,033
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $3,466
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$832
• After-tax cash flow: $5,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,447
• Household income: $66,644
• Rent vs Own: 47.2% rent · 52.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1962.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 22% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.99%
• Current HPI: 266.7408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.76%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+118.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $170,000 PARMLS
• 1999-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $129,900 Public Records
• 1989-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $74,500 Public Records
• 1981-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $77,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,511 · +23.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.