12914 Lucas · San Antonio, TX 78252

$285,988

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,899 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 2021 5,052 sqft lot $151/sqft · at area comps Est $290k · at est. $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Modern MOVE-IN READY 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home built in 2021 on San Antonio's far west side. This spacious, open-concept layout offers seamless flow for living and entertaining. Designed with efficiency in mind, the home features SOLAR PANELS, a WATER SOFTENER, reverse osmosis system, and alkaline drinking water. Enjoy lower utility costs without sacrificing comfort. Generously sized rooms and contemporary finishes throughout make this home both functional and inviting. A great opportunity for buyers seeking newer construction with energy-saving upgrades already in place.

Key facts

• Water softener
• Solar panels
• 5,052 sq ft lot

Tags

• SOLAR PANELS
• WATER SOFTENER
• REVERSE OSMOSIS SYSTEM
• ALKALINE DRINKING WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $286k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 537 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-5 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,939 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.69%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,002
• List price: $285,988
• Delta: -1.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6210 Falsetto Voice	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,906 (+0%)	12mo	$289,700	$152	73
6039 Olson Blfs	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,070 (+9%)	11mo	$268,820	$130	69
12810 Olson Pt	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,070 (+9%)	10mo	$264,900	$128	69
13119 Maestro Spark	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,906 (+0%)	14mo	$269,500	$141	64
6602 Kingsley Edge	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,906 (+0%)	9mo	$275,000	$144	63
6403 Encore Oaks	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,703 (-10%)	1mo	$275,000	$161	55
13007 Minuet Sway	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,703 (-10%)	1mo	$285,500	$168	51
13014 Mezzo Breeze	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-13%)	14mo	$324,950	$197	47
6429 Hoffman Pln	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (-12%)	3mo	$289,900	$174	45
6419 Tempo Switch	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,631 (-14%)	2mo	$244,900	$150	35
13032 Minuet Sway	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (-12%)	9mo	$283,999	$171	33
13011 Minuet Sway	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (-12%)	17mo	$295,000	$177	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-30,025
• Equity at exit: $83,016

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-31,908
• Equity at exit: $99,769

Cash invested: $80,077 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78252

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 537
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,019 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,500
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,320/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,331

Max offer price $242,542

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,497
• Closing costs: $8,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12906 Olson Pt San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,780	$1.15	17d	1	0.17mi
6023 Macdona Rdg San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1474	$1,695	$1.15	43d	1	0.22mi
5565 Mansions Blfs San Antonio, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1326	$2,321	$1.75	1d	33	0.32mi
6441 Staccato Staff San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1906	$1,950	$1.02	4d	1	0.49mi
6436 Kingsley Edge San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$1,800	$1.06	43d	1	0.50mi
12530 Larissa San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,300	$1.38	23d	1	0.61mi
6518 Hoffman Pln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2237	$1,795	$0.80	23d	1	0.64mi
6518 Hoffman Pln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2237	$1,795	$0.80	17d	1	0.64mi
6621 Kingsley Edge San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1906	$1,850	$0.97	43d	1	0.64mi
5525 Mansions Blfs San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	869	$1,613	$1.86	1d	48	0.65mi
13078 Cygnus San Antonio, TX	4.0	1.0–3.0	1656	$2,014	$1.22	1d	8	0.66mi
12603 Antilia San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2058	$1,795	$0.87	4d	1	0.68mi
12667 Corona Borealis San Antonio, TX	5.0	3.0	2610	$2,250	$0.86	12d	1	0.68mi
12515 Antilia San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,800	$1.28	10d	1	0.70mi
12627 Corona Borealis San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,680	$1.19	43d	1	0.71mi
12507 Antilia San Antonio, TX	3.0	3.0	2060	$2,200	$1.07	43d	1	0.72mi
5010 Jovian San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$2,100	$1.37	4d	1	0.74mi
12879 Cygnus San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2121	$2,150	$1.01	21d	1	0.75mi
12879 Cygnus San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2120	$2,150	$1.01	43d	1	0.75mi
12528 Corona Borealis San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2058	$1,795	$0.87	23d	1	0.75mi
4931 Jovian San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2058	$1,795	$0.87	23d	1	0.75mi
13067 Whisper Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,750	$1.21	23d	1	0.77mi
6638 Hoffman Pln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,850	$1.11	23d	1	0.80mi
13107 Minuet Sway San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$1,800	$1.06	11d	1	0.81mi
6304 Masterson Rd Unit 3294 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1463	$2,209	$1.51	3d	1	0.81mi
13080 Whisper Bnd San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$1,850	$1.09	43d	1	0.82mi
13080 Whisper Bnd San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$1,850	$1.09	23d	1	0.82mi
6548 Dynamic Sound San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,495	$1.13	23d	1	0.82mi
13123 Minuet Sway San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2241	$2,050	$0.91	43d	1	0.84mi
4615 Serpens San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1747	$1,800	$1.03	23d	1	0.85mi
4715 Corona Australis San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2081	$1,950	$0.94	43d	1	0.86mi
6727 Hoffman Pln San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2327	$2,100	$0.90	43d	1	0.88mi
5115 Bay Breeze San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1512	$1,849	$1.22	43d	1	0.91mi
6528 Chevler Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,345	$0.92	43d	1	0.91mi
13310 Whisper Bnd San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$1,795	$0.94	21d	1	0.94mi
5035 Bay Breeze San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1834	$1,950	$1.06	23d	1	0.95mi
6522 Vivaldi Isle San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,500	$1.13	43d	1	0.96mi
6830 Whisper Grv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,900	$1.01	16d	1	0.97mi
6830 Whisper Grv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1901	$1,900	$1.00	3d	1	0.97mi
6550 Fledgely Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1562	$1,700	$1.09	43d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,988 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,988 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,988 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $285,988 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,988 Price Change 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,988 Price Change 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,988 Price Change 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on market $285,988 Price Change 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,988 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,988 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,988 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,988 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,988 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    price $289,988 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Modern MOVE-IN READY 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home built in 2021 on San Antonio's far west side. This spacious, open-concept layout offers seamless flow for living and entertaining. Designed with efficiency in mind, the home features SOLAR PANELS, a WATER SOFTENER, reverse osmosis system, and alkaline drinking water. Enjoy lower utility costs without sacrificing comfort. Generously sized rooms and contemporary finishes throughout make this home both functional and inviting. A great opportunity for buyers seeking newer construction with energy-saving upgrades already in place.

15. 2026-04-11
    price $299,988 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Modern MOVE-IN READY 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home built in 2021 on San Antonio's far west side. This spacious, open-concept layout offers seamless flow for living and entertaining. Designed with efficiency in mind, the home features SOLAR PANELS, a WATER SOFTENER, reverse osmosis system, and alkaline drinking water. Enjoy lower utility costs without sacrificing comfort. Generously sized rooms and contemporary finishes throughout make this home both functional and inviting. A great opportunity for buyers seeking newer construction with energy-saving upgrades already in place.

16. 2026-03-19
    listed $304,988 New 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Modern MOVE-IN READY 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home built in 2021 on San Antonio's far west side. This spacious, open-concept layout offers seamless flow for living and entertaining. Designed with efficiency in mind, the home features SOLAR PANELS, a WATER SOFTENER, reverse osmosis system, and alkaline drinking water. Enjoy lower utility costs without sacrificing comfort. Generously sized rooms and contemporary finishes throughout make this home both functional and inviting. A great opportunity for buyers seeking newer construction with energy-saving upgrades already in place.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,320 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,234 · $436/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,913/yr (+$243/mo · 125.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,020
• − Property taxes: −$2,320
• − Insurance: −$1,430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,939
• − Management: −$1,939
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,320
• Taxable loss: −$8,082
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,940
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,790
• Household income: $85,518
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% Two or more races 29% White 17% Black 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 38% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ -0.00%
• Current HPI: 183.6413
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $289,988 LERA
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $299,988 LERA
• 2026-03-19 Listed $304,988 LERA

Property tax history

+40.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,320 · -58.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.