1016 Morgan St · Keokuk, IA 52632

$56,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,116 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 212 Days on market

Built 1910 3,360 sqft lot $51/sqft · 9% above area Est $52k · 9% over ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well cared for 2 story home. This property features a living room, dining room kitchen and 1/4 bath on the main floor. Upper floor has 2 BDRMS , full bath and a finished crawl space. Full basement has a small, finished room and the washer/dryer hookups. GFA/ CA , detached 2 car garage and a fenced in yard. Several new floors and fresh paint. Newer front porch. LG washer/dryer stove and refrigerator all convey. Make your appointment today!

Key facts

• Finished crawl space
• New floors
• Living room

Tags

• LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• FINISHED CRAWL SPACE
• FULL BASEMENT
• FENCED IN YARD
• NEW FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($768 rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 8.2% in Keokuk — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#166 in IA, #3,002 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Keokuk Community School District (town): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #282 of 289 in IA (top 98%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $391 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.06%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,012
• List price: $56,500
• Delta: 8.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
508 N 9th St	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,112 (-0%)	4mo	$88,000	$79	87
1218 Fulton St	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,084 (-3%)	4mo	$8,000	$7	82
1025 Leighton St	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,124 (+1%)	6mo	$105,500	$94	77
722 Concert St	0.24mi	2/1.5	1,042 (-7%)	4mo	$24,000	$23	75
1528 Franklin St	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,140 (+2%)	4mo	$131,000	$115	70
1620 Johnson St	0.55mi	2/1.0	1,082 (-3%)	1mo	$20,000	$18	66
209 N 14th St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,026 (-8%)	4mo	$27,500	$27	64
1307 Timea St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,126 (+1%)	5mo	$6,000	$5	60
1721 Johnson St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,142 (+2%)	5mo	$30,000	$26	57
1428 Des Moines St	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,051 (-6%)	6mo	$48,000	$46	50
1901 Plank Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	986 (-12%)	8mo	$109,500	$111	39
819 Des Moines St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	950 (-15%)	10mo	$69,000	$73	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $7
• Equity at exit: $8,424

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $11,961
• Equity at exit: $4,885

Cash invested: $15,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52632

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$296
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,058/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$161
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $587

Max offer price $56,500

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,125
• Closing costs: $1,695
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Richards Dr Unit 1-8 Keokuk, IA	2.0	1.0	725	$795	$1.10	43d	1	0.67mi
212 Washington St Keokuk, IA	1.0–2.0	1.0	632	$715	$1.13	43d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $56,500 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $56,500 Active 211 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $56,500 Active 210 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $56,500 Active 209 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $56,500 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $56,500 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $56,500 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $56,500 Active 202 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $56,500 Active 201 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $56,500 Active 200 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $56,500 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $56,500 Active 196 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $56,500 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $56,500 Active 194 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $56,500 Active 193 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    status Active 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    Well cared for 2 story home. This property features a living room, dining room kitchen and 1/4 bath on the main floor. Upper floor has 2 BDRMS , full bath and a finished crawl space. Full basement has a small, finished room and the washer/dryer hookups. GFA/ CA , detached 2 car garage and a fenced in yard. Several new floors and fresh paint. Newer front porch. LG washer/dryer stove and refrigerator all convey. Make your appointment today!

17. 2026-03-30
    historical Active Under Contract 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    Well cared for 2 story home. This property features a living room, dining room kitchen and 1/4 bath on the main floor. Upper floor has 2 BDRMS , full bath and a finished crawl space. Full basement has a small, finished room and the washer/dryer hookups. GFA/ CA , detached 2 car garage and a fenced in yard. Several new floors and fresh paint. Newer front porch. LG washer/dryer stove and refrigerator all convey. Make your appointment today!

18. 2026-03-09
    price $56,500 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    Well cared for 2 story home. This property features a living room, dining room kitchen and 1/4 bath on the main floor. Upper floor has 2 BDRMS , full bath and a finished crawl space. Full basement has a small, finished room and the washer/dryer hookups. GFA/ CA , detached 2 car garage and a fenced in yard. Several new floors and fresh paint. Newer front porch. LG washer/dryer stove and refrigerator all convey. Make your appointment today!

19. 2025-12-18
    price $60,000 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    Well cared for 2 story home. This property features a living room, dining room kitchen and 1/4 bath on the main floor. Upper floor has 2 BDRMS , full bath and a finished crawl space. Full basement has a small, finished room and the washer/dryer hookups. GFA/ CA , detached 2 car garage and a fenced in yard. Several new floors and fresh paint. Newer front porch. LG washer/dryer stove and refrigerator all convey. Make your appointment today!

20. 2025-11-18
    listed $62,500 Active 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    Well cared for 2 story home. This property features a living room, dining room kitchen and 1/4 bath on the main floor. Upper floor has 2 BDRMS , full bath and a finished crawl space. Full basement has a small, finished room and the washer/dryer hookups. GFA/ CA , detached 2 car garage and a fenced in yard. Several new floors and fresh paint. Newer front porch. LG washer/dryer stove and refrigerator all convey. Make your appointment today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,058 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,058 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,165
• − Property taxes: −$1,058
• − Insurance: −$949
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$737
• − Management: −$737
• − Depreciation: −$1,644
• Taxable income: $923
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$222
• After-tax cash flow: $1,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keokuk Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1915630
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,973
• Composite: 42.35/100
• National rank: #3249
• State rank: #282 of 289 in IA

Livability — Keokuk

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #3002

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keokuk, IA
• Population (ZIP): 11,904

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,813 people
• By 2030: 32,835 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 30,690 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 28,777 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 25,568 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 21,983 · -35.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 35.0% · R 62.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: 16.0pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+16.1 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.80%
• Current HPI: 122.2866
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-9.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Relisted — IAR
• 2026-03-30 Contingent — IAR
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $56,500 IAR
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $60,000 IAR
• 2025-11-18 Listed $62,500 IAR

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,058 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.