10638 Oak Leaf Dr · Olive Branch, MS 38654

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,234 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1998 9,147 sqft lot Est $216k · 11% over $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This one owner home has been refreshed and is ready for a new owner. New paint - floor to ceiling inside, new carpet and pad, new flooring in bathrooms. The backyard is unique as no one can ever build behind this lot. Wood privacy fence on both sides and wire fence across the back. Freshly painted outside and even has a one-car attached garage. New refrigerator in kitchen stays with home. Great location for shopping, schools or commute.

Key facts

• 9,147 sq ft lot
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($43/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in Olive Branch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#29 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Olive Branch Elem (503 students, 99% FRL); Olive Branch Middle (math 48% / reading 32%, grade F, #68 of 179 statewide, top 38%, 726 students, 100% FRL); Olive Branch High School (math 54% / reading 48%, grade D+, #17 of 197 statewide, top 9%, 1,117 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 566 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,554 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,950
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6303 W Oak Run Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,170 (-5%)	2mo	$220,000	$188	78
6290 E Oak Run Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,298 (+5%)	7mo	$235,000	$181	76
6531 Kristen Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,134 (-8%)	4mo	$225,000	$198	73
10280 Yates Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,237 (+0%)	1mo	$210,000	$170	70
10158 Oak Leaf Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,298 (+5%)	1mo	$225,000	$173	66
10155 Riggan Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,293 (+5%)	6mo	$210,000	$162	65
5855 Hacks Cross Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-7%)	1mo	$125,000	$109	63
10153 Stephenson Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-3%)	2mo	$239,900	$200	63
10475 Courtney Cv	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+14%)	7mo	$215,000	$154	60
6931 Magnolia Trail Cv	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,277 (+4%)	6mo	$255,000	$200	58
10335 Yates Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,324 (+7%)	6mo	$220,000	$166	56
6916 Magnolia Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+14%)	1mo	$245,000	$175	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-44,167
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-59,462
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38654

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 566
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,846 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,029/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,841

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $72	+0% $4	+5% $-64	+10% $-132
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-69	+0% $4	+5% $77	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $65	base $4	+0.5pp $-59	+1.0pp $-122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10515 Oak Leaf Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,595	$1.37	44d	1	0.12mi
6213 Magnolia Lakes Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,675	$1.48	44d	1	0.21mi
10453 Kristen Dr S Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1264	$1,803	$1.43	3d	1	0.37mi
10257 Palmer Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,495	$1.32	24d	1	0.47mi
5746 Oakley Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1358	$1,835	$1.35	5d	1	0.50mi
6649 Magnolia Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,800	$1.66	44d	1	0.53mi
10233 Curtis Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,595	$1.38	44d	1	0.55mi
10378 Yates Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,780	$1.34	5d	1	0.58mi
6571 Ashland Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,723	$1.35	20d	1	0.70mi
6534 Valerie Dr Olive Branch, MS	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,923	$1.28	44d	1	0.72mi
9931 Adina Cv Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,723	$1.37	24d	1	0.76mi
6178 Morgan Manor Dr E Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,860	$1.32	12d	1	0.79mi
6763 Ashland Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,590	$1.32	12d	1	0.81mi
7104 Olive Ridge Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,895	$1.53	44d	1	0.84mi
7117 Goodman Ridge Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,755	$1.24	15d	1	0.85mi
6801 College Park Cv Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,660	$1.43	44d	1	0.89mi
6866 Valerie Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,795	$1.20	44d	1	0.91mi
6813 Maury Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1086	$1,395	$1.28	44d	1	0.98mi
9763 Riggan Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,695	$1.38	20d	1	1.00mi
6795 Blocker St Unit 10 Olive Branch, MS	2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	44d	1	1.36mi
6795 Blocker St Olive Branch, MS	2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	24d	1	1.36mi
9455 Goodman Rd Unit b 3 Olive Branch, MS	2.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	24d	1	1.40mi
7642 Fox Hunt Dr E Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,675	$1.30	24d	1	1.44mi
7665 Fox Hunt Dr E Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,695	$1.28	44d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $240,000 Active
3. 2021-10-11
   historical
4. 2018-09-10
   soldstatus
5. 2018-09-07
   soldstatus 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   This one owner home has been refreshed and is ready for a new owner. New paint - floor to ceiling inside, new carpet and pad, new flooring in bathrooms. The backyard is unique as no one can ever build behind this lot. Wood privacy fence on both sides and wire fence across the back. Freshly painted outside and even has a one-car attached garage. New refrigerator in kitchen stays with home. Great location for shopping, schools or commute.

6. 2018-08-02
   listed $135,000 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   This one owner home has been refreshed and is ready for a new owner. New paint - floor to ceiling inside, new carpet and pad, new flooring in bathrooms. The backyard is unique as no one can ever build behind this lot. Wood privacy fence on both sides and wire fence across the back. Freshly painted outside and even has a one-car attached garage. New refrigerator in kitchen stays with home. Great location for shopping, schools or commute.

7. 2001-09-14
   listed $93,000
8. 1998-07-15
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,029 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,896 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$867/yr (+$72/mo · 84.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,029
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,772
• − Management: −$1,772
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$4,172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,001
• After-tax cash flow: $1,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Olive Branch

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #6509

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olive Branch, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 57,898
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 57,898
• Household income: $103,092
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 801.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.27%
• Current HPI: 187.2114
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+158.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-16 Listed $240,000 MLSU
• 2021-10-11 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2018-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-09-07 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2018-08-02 Listed $135,000 MLSU
• 2001-09-14 Listed $93,000 MLSU
• 1998-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,029 · +18.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.