14619 Old Marysville Rd · Camptonville, CA 95922

$135,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 756 sqft · Manufactured · 11 Days on market

Built 1995 1.85 ac lot Est $130k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Just 5 minutes from Bullards Bar Reservoir, this 1 bedroom mobile home with an office sits on 1.8 acres and offers plenty of privacy and space to spread out. If you have been looking for a simple place to use as a basecamp for the lake or a getaway outside of town, this property is worth a look. The home has an open feel with vaulted ceilings and natural light throughout. There is a covered deck to enjoy the surrounding trees and landscape, along with a storage shed near the home for extra space. Nevada City is about 25 minutes away for restaurants, shopping, and everyday needs, while Bullards Bar is just minutes down the road for boating, fishing, and time on the water. A good opportunity

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Storage shed
• Lake access

Tags

• BULLARDS BAR RESERVOIR
• COVERED DECK
• STORAGE SHED
• LAKE ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#567 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 750 units permitted in Yuba County in 2024 (41 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $448 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Yuba County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $135k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.96%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,032
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14619 Old Marysville Rd	0.00mi	1/1.0	756 (0%)	1mo	$130,000	$172	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $16,134
• Equity at exit: $41,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $57,295
• Equity at exit: $51,668

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95922

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,474 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,417/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,117

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $359	-5% $320	+0% $282	+5% $244	+10% $206
Rent	-10% $166	-5% $224	+0% $282	+5% $340	+10% $399
Rate	-1.0pp $350	-0.5pp $317	base $282	+0.5pp $247	+1.0pp $212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2017-02-24
   soldstatus $80,000
2. 2014-04-07
   soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,417 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,417 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,417
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,415
• − Management: −$1,415
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,277
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$306
• After-tax cash flow: $3,080/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Camptonville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #567
• US rank: #18618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 495

Population outlook (Yuba County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,432 people
• By 2030: 75,358 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 74,643 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 72,937 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 66,368 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 54,524 · -27.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 24% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Yuba

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 35.7% · R 61.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.7pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+14.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Current HPI: 134.9661
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+14.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2017-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,417 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.