Altitude Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$291,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,310 sqft · SingleFamily · 246 Days on market

↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,310 Sq. Ft. The Altitude offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open-concept living with comfortable private spaces, creating a home that supports both everyday routines and easy entertaining. From the foyer, the first floor opens into a bright, connected living area where the kitchen, casual dining area, and great room come together naturally. The kitchen offers a center island, pantry storage, and generous counter space for everyday cooking, with the option to include a nearby built-in desk for homework or focused tasks. The great room leads directly to a covered patio, creating an easy transition to outdoor living. A mud room with optional lockers keeps daily essentials organized at the garage entry, while a powder room adds convenience for visitors. Upstairs, the primary suite is privately positioned and offers a spacious retreat with two spacious walk-in closet and a well-appointed bath. Buyers can personalize the bath with options that include an enlarged shower, shower seat, or a tub-and-shower combination to suit their preferences. Two additional bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged near a full bath, providing comfortable accommodations for family or guests. A centrally located game room anchors the second level, creating a flexible space for relaxation, play, or work-from-home needs. The nearby laundry room adds everyday efficiency, keeping household routines simple and organized. With its open main living spa

Key facts

• Front porch
• Covered patio
• Large island

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $291,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $284,327.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $292k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-279 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $213,406 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,327
• List price: $291,990
• Delta: 2.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40588 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,370 (+3%)	2mo	$328,990	$139	87
12871 Hannah Springs Ln	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,140 (-7%)	1mo	$299,990	$140	79
40619 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,149 (-7%)	11mo	$318,120	$148	72
40792 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,377 (+3%)	9mo	$329,990	$139	70
12811 Hannah Springs Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,149 (-7%)	10mo	$289,990	$135	68
12751 Dina Springs Ln	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,978 (-14%)	0mo	$269,990	$136	67
12735 Dina Springs Ln	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,026 (-12%)	3mo	$319,990	$158	66
12706 Dina Springs Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,087 (-10%)	6mo	$288,990	$138	65
40728 Pessi Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,140 (-7%)	9mo	$292,990	$137	64
40765 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,140 (-7%)	10mo	$299,990	$140	64
40533 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,608 (+13%)	10mo	$315,000	$121	58
40756 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.26mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,035 (-12%)	4mo	$309,000	$152	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $131,509
• Equity at exit: $256,144

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.91×
• Total profit: $391,138
• Equity at exit: $552,384

Cash invested: $79,611 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,134 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,491
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$355 /mo · $4,265/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,487

Max offer price $243,953

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,082
• Closing costs: $8,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $291,990 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $291,990 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $291,990 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $291,990 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $291,990 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $291,990 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $291,990 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $291,990 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $291,990 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $291,990 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $291,990 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $281,990 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $281,990 Active 228 DOM
14. 2026-03-22
    price $281,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,310 Sq. Ft. The Altitude offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open-concept living with comfortable private spaces, creating a home that supports both everyday routines and easy entertaining. From the foyer, the first floor opens into a bright, connected living area where the kitchen, casual dining area, and great room come together naturally. The kitchen offers a center island, pantry storage, and generous counter space for everyday cooking, with the option to include a nearby built-in desk for homework or focused tasks. The great room leads directly to a covered patio, creating an easy transition to outdoor living. A mud room with optional lockers keeps daily essentials organized at the garage entry, while a powder room adds convenience for visitors. Upstairs, the primary suite is privately positioned and offers a spacious retreat with two spacious walk-in closet and a well-appointed bath. Buyers can personalize the bath with options that include an enlarged shower, shower seat, or a tub-and-shower combination to suit their preferences. Two additional bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged near a full bath, providing comfortable accommodations for family or guests. A centrally located game room anchors the second level, creating a flexible space for relaxation, play, or work-from-home needs. The nearby laundry room adds everyday efficiency, keeping household routines simple and organized. With its open main living spa

15. 2026-01-31
    price $291,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,310 Sq. Ft. The Altitude offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open-concept living with comfortable private spaces, creating a home that supports both everyday routines and easy entertaining. From the foyer, the first floor opens into a bright, connected living area where the kitchen, casual dining area, and great room come together naturally. The kitchen offers a center island, pantry storage, and generous counter space for everyday cooking, with the option to include a nearby built-in desk for homework or focused tasks. The great room leads directly to a covered patio, creating an easy transition to outdoor living. A mud room with optional lockers keeps daily essentials organized at the garage entry, while a powder room adds convenience for visitors. Upstairs, the primary suite is privately positioned and offers a spacious retreat with two spacious walk-in closet and a well-appointed bath. Buyers can personalize the bath with options that include an enlarged shower, shower seat, or a tub-and-shower combination to suit their preferences. Two additional bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged near a full bath, providing comfortable accommodations for family or guests. A centrally located game room anchors the second level, creating a flexible space for relaxation, play, or work-from-home needs. The nearby laundry room adds everyday efficiency, keeping household routines simple and organized. With its open main living spa

16. 2026-01-09
    price $289,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,310 Sq. Ft. The Altitude offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open-concept living with comfortable private spaces, creating a home that supports both everyday routines and easy entertaining. From the foyer, the first floor opens into a bright, connected living area where the kitchen, casual dining area, and great room come together naturally. The kitchen offers a center island, pantry storage, and generous counter space for everyday cooking, with the option to include a nearby built-in desk for homework or focused tasks. The great room leads directly to a covered patio, creating an easy transition to outdoor living. A mud room with optional lockers keeps daily essentials organized at the garage entry, while a powder room adds convenience for visitors. Upstairs, the primary suite is privately positioned and offers a spacious retreat with two spacious walk-in closet and a well-appointed bath. Buyers can personalize the bath with options that include an enlarged shower, shower seat, or a tub-and-shower combination to suit their preferences. Two additional bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged near a full bath, providing comfortable accommodations for family or guests. A centrally located game room anchors the second level, creating a flexible space for relaxation, play, or work-from-home needs. The nearby laundry room adds everyday efficiency, keeping household routines simple and organized. With its open main living spa

17. 2025-11-04
    price $287,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,310 Sq. Ft. The Altitude offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open-concept living with comfortable private spaces, creating a home that supports both everyday routines and easy entertaining. From the foyer, the first floor opens into a bright, connected living area where the kitchen, casual dining area, and great room come together naturally. The kitchen offers a center island, pantry storage, and generous counter space for everyday cooking, with the option to include a nearby built-in desk for homework or focused tasks. The great room leads directly to a covered patio, creating an easy transition to outdoor living. A mud room with optional lockers keeps daily essentials organized at the garage entry, while a powder room adds convenience for visitors. Upstairs, the primary suite is privately positioned and offers a spacious retreat with two spacious walk-in closet and a well-appointed bath. Buyers can personalize the bath with options that include an enlarged shower, shower seat, or a tub-and-shower combination to suit their preferences. Two additional bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged near a full bath, providing comfortable accommodations for family or guests. A centrally located game room anchors the second level, creating a flexible space for relaxation, play, or work-from-home needs. The nearby laundry room adds everyday efficiency, keeping household routines simple and organized. With its open main living spa

18. 2025-10-15
    listed $299,990 Active 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,310 Sq. Ft. The Altitude offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open-concept living with comfortable private spaces, creating a home that supports both everyday routines and easy entertaining. From the foyer, the first floor opens into a bright, connected living area where the kitchen, casual dining area, and great room come together naturally. The kitchen offers a center island, pantry storage, and generous counter space for everyday cooking, with the option to include a nearby built-in desk for homework or focused tasks. The great room leads directly to a covered patio, creating an easy transition to outdoor living. A mud room with optional lockers keeps daily essentials organized at the garage entry, while a powder room adds convenience for visitors. Upstairs, the primary suite is privately positioned and offers a spacious retreat with two spacious walk-in closet and a well-appointed bath. Buyers can personalize the bath with options that include an enlarged shower, shower seat, or a tub-and-shower combination to suit their preferences. Two additional bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged near a full bath, providing comfortable accommodations for family or guests. A centrally located game room anchors the second level, creating a flexible space for relaxation, play, or work-from-home needs. The nearby laundry room adds everyday efficiency, keeping household routines simple and organized. With its open main living spa

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,927
• − Property taxes: −$4,265
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,049
• − Management: −$2,049
• − Depreciation: −$8,271
• Taxable loss: −$8,373
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,010
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $281,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $291,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $287,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $299,990 Zillow