16998 SW 44th Cir · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$288,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,666 sqft · Land · 38 Days on market

Built 2026 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bed | 2 bath | 2-bay | 1665 sqft * Closing costs are additional and not included in the USDA 30 year fixed rate 100% financing. Terms and availability of this loan program, and the sales price, are examples only and are subject to change without notice. Loans are subject to credit approval. Restrictions and conditions may apply. USDA loans are subject to income and geographic eligibility criteria. Loan program is available through Inspire Home Loans® | NMLS # 1564276, click here for State Licensing Disclosures with additional information found at NMLS Consumer Access: www. nmlsconsumeraccess.org. ©02/2025 Century Communities, Inc.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open living room
• Elegant cabinetry

Tags

• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• DINING AREA
• KITCHEN
• ELEGANT CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.23 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre); Permit number: 2025062146; Builder license: CQ1061490; Living area reported as 1,666 sq ft
• HOA & community: Marion Oaks Civic Association (optional annual fees); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; New construction (projected completion July 27, 2026); One level; Faces northeast
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Century Complete Communities (model: Quail Ridge)
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry room

🏗️ New construction. The $288,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $271,029.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($897/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 43% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,017 students, 73% FRL); Horizon Academy At Marion Oaks (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,067 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1376 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,675 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,029
• List price: $288,990
• Delta: 6.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-45,476
• Equity at exit: $40,411

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-57,910
• Equity at exit: $23,434

Cash invested: $75,888 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1376
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,107 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,421
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $664/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,012

Max offer price $271,029

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $151	+0% $75	+5% $-2	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-92	-5% $-8	+0% $75	+5% $158	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $211	-0.5pp $144	base $75	+0.5pp $4	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,757
• Closing costs: $8,131
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4535 SW 172nd Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,150	$1.15	15d	1	0.19mi
4513 SW 170th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,950	$1.10	23d	1	0.25mi
4473 SW 168th Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$2,000	$1.11	15d	1	0.39mi
17191 SW 40th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	15d	1	0.44mi
17000 SW 41st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1640	$2,000	$1.22	15d	1	0.45mi
267 Marion Oaks Golf Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,799	$1.14	15d	1	0.59mi
550 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,850	$1.17	15d	1	0.64mi
566 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,100	$1.17	15d	1	0.73mi
393 Marion Oaks Golf Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	15d	1	0.81mi
333 Marion Oaks Golf Way Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,695	$1.05	15d	1	1.10mi
16094 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	15d	1	1.23mi
16090 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	15d	1	1.25mi
3540 SW 163rd Place Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,600	$1.32	23d	1	1.26mi
3022 SW 168th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,800	$1.22	15d	1	1.32mi
3087 SW 172nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,150	$1.28	15d	1	1.39mi
15944 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,850	$1.40	23d	1	1.39mi
16054 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	15d	1	1.41mi
15962 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	15d	1	1.41mi
16210 SW 59th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	15d	1	1.42mi
17029 SW 30th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,745	$1.33	15d	1	1.44mi
16690 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,725	$1.07	23d	1	1.48mi
16619 SW 31st Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,900	$1.24	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $288,990 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $288,990 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $288,990 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $288,990 Active 33 DOM

   Show marketing remark (650 chars)

   4 bed | 2 bath | 2-bay | 1665 sqft * Closing costs are additional and not included in the USDA 30 year fixed rate 100% financing. Terms and availability of this loan program, and the sales price, are examples only and are subject to change without notice. Loans are subject to credit approval. Restrictions and conditions may apply. USDA loans are subject to income and geographic eligibility criteria. Loan program is available through Inspire Home Loans® | NMLS # 1564276, click here for State Licensing Disclosures with additional information found at NMLS Consumer Access: www. nmlsconsumeraccess.org. ©02/2025 Century Communities, Inc.

5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $286,990 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $286,990 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $286,990 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $286,990 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $286,990 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $286,990 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $286,990 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $286,990 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $286,990 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $286,990 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $286,990 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $286,990 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $286,990 Active 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    4 bed | 2 bath | 2-bay | 1665 sqft * Closing costs are additional and not included in the USDA 30 year fixed rate 100% financing. Terms and availability of this loan program, and the sales price, are examples only and are subject to change without notice. Loans are subject to credit approval. Restrictions and conditions may apply. USDA loans are subject to income and geographic eligibility criteria. Loan program is available through Inspire Home Loans® | NMLS # 1564276, click here for State Licensing Disclosures with additional information found at NMLS Consumer Access: www. nmlsconsumeraccess.org. ©02/2025 Century Communities, Inc.

18. 2026-05-14
    listed $286,990 Active 838-char remark
19. 2024-12-10
    soldstatus $1,343,900
20. 2005-08-18
    soldstatus $410,000
21. 2004-09-21
    soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $664 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,399 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,734/yr (+$145/mo · 261.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,182
• − Property taxes: −$664
• − Insurance: −$1,355
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,022
• − Management: −$2,022
• − Depreciation: −$7,884
• Taxable loss: −$3,850
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$924
• After-tax cash flow: $1,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1706.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $288,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $288,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Listed $286,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Listed $286,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $1,343,900 Public Records
• 2005-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $410,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $664 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.