1428 Surrey Ln Unit D · St. Peters, MO 63304

$146,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Condo public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1988 $141/sqft · 14% below area Est $170k · 14% under $327/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Upper level condo with new flooring and freshly painted throughout. Living room into the large vaulted kitchen and breakfast rooms, breakfast bar, with all kitchen appliances staying, Laundry area off the kitchen. Breakfast room is large enough for table/chairs and extra furniture. Deck located off the breakfast room, back down hall way to second bedroom and hall bath. Primary suite with large bay windows, full bath. Come put your finishing touches on this gem and make it truly yours!

Key facts

• $327 HOA
• Built 1988
• Listed 123 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($790/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.2% in St. Peters — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Francis Howell R-III (suburban): math 53% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #11 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $107k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,480 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.93%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,157
• List price: $146,000
• Delta: -14.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-20,089
• Equity at exit: $21,769

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-14,634
• Equity at exit: $12,623

Cash invested: $40,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63304

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,773 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$327
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,689

Max offer price $146,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,500
• Closing costs: $4,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1360 Park Ashwood Dr St Charles, MO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1038	$1,510	$1.45	1d	5	0.52mi
11 Rose Dr St Charles, MO	2.0	1.5	860	$1,850	$2.15	7d	1	0.78mi
4507 Cambrook Dr Saint Charles, MO	3.0	2.0	1279	$2,300	$1.80	11d	1	0.89mi
4153 McClay Rd Saint Charles, MO	3.0	2.0	1096	$2,100	$1.92	43d	1	0.96mi
1400 Britain Way St Charles, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	762	$1,484	$1.95	1d	7	1.01mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $327 · $3,924/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $146,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $146,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $146,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $146,000 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $146,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $146,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $146,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $146,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $146,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $146,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $146,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $146,000 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 623-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    price $146,000 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 105 DOM
18. 2026-05-09
    price $150,000 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Upper level condo with new flooring and freshly painted throughout. Living room into the large vaulted kitchen and breakfast rooms, breakfast bar, with all kitchen appliances staying, Laundry area off the kitchen. Breakfast room is large enough for table/chairs and extra furniture. Deck located off the breakfast room, back down hall way to second bedroom and hall bath. Primary suite with large bay windows, full bath. Come put your finishing touches on this gem and make it truly yours!

19. 2026-04-21
    price $157,000 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Upper level condo with new flooring and freshly painted throughout. Living room into the large vaulted kitchen and breakfast rooms, breakfast bar, with all kitchen appliances staying, Laundry area off the kitchen. Breakfast room is large enough for table/chairs and extra furniture. Deck located off the breakfast room, back down hall way to second bedroom and hall bath. Primary suite with large bay windows, full bath. Come put your finishing touches on this gem and make it truly yours!

20. 2026-04-06
    status Active 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Upper level condo with new flooring and freshly painted throughout. Living room into the large vaulted kitchen and breakfast rooms, breakfast bar, with all kitchen appliances staying, Laundry area off the kitchen. Breakfast room is large enough for table/chairs and extra furniture. Deck located off the breakfast room, back down hall way to second bedroom and hall bath. Primary suite with large bay windows, full bath. Come put your finishing touches on this gem and make it truly yours!

21. 2026-04-06
    price $159,000 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Upper level condo with new flooring and freshly painted throughout. Living room into the large vaulted kitchen and breakfast rooms, breakfast bar, with all kitchen appliances staying, Laundry area off the kitchen. Breakfast room is large enough for table/chairs and extra furniture. Deck located off the breakfast room, back down hall way to second bedroom and hall bath. Primary suite with large bay windows, full bath. Come put your finishing touches on this gem and make it truly yours!

22. 2026-01-19
    listed $157,000 Active 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Upper level condo with new flooring and freshly painted throughout. Living room into the large vaulted kitchen and breakfast rooms, breakfast bar, with all kitchen appliances staying, Laundry area off the kitchen. Breakfast room is large enough for table/chairs and extra furniture. Deck located off the breakfast room, back down hall way to second bedroom and hall bath. Primary suite with large bay windows, full bath. Come put your finishing touches on this gem and make it truly yours!

23. 2026-01-15
    historical $157,000 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Upper level condo with new flooring and freshly painted throughout. Living room into the large vaulted kitchen and breakfast rooms, breakfast bar, with all kitchen appliances staying, Laundry area off the kitchen. Breakfast room is large enough for table/chairs and extra furniture. Deck located off the breakfast room, back down hall way to second bedroom and hall bath. Primary suite with large bay windows, full bath. Come put your finishing touches on this gem and make it truly yours!

24. 2007-05-15
    soldstatus $107,000
25. 2001-07-25
    soldstatus $77,000
26. 1998-05-07
    soldstatus $51,000
27. 1991-01-01
    soldstatus $45,080

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,175 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,175 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,178
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,702
• − Management: −$1,702
• − HOA: −$3,924
• − Depreciation: −$4,247
• Taxable loss: −$1,384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$332
• After-tax cash flow: $1,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Francis Howell R-III
• NCES district ID: 2928950
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $79,768
• Composite: 52.23/100
• National rank: #1602
• State rank: #11 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Peters

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Peters, MO
• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 74,876
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,195
• Household income: $114,442
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 560.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.72%
• Current HPI: 233.745
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.52%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+232.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $157,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $159,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-19 Listed $157,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Coming Soon $157,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records
• 2001-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 1998-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 1991-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,080 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,175 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.