124 Mount Air Rd · Mount Jackson, PA 16102

$155,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1910 Est $170k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Single family dwelling with 3-4 bedrooms. New windows, updated electric service, new well pump, and some flooring. City sewer and well water. Large back yard and shed. Quiet neighborhood and Mohawk Schools. Owner motivated to sell and will assist with closing costs. Wood burner for secondary heat source which is tied into duct work.

Key facts

• New well pump
• Large back yard
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• NEW WINDOWS
• UPDATED ELECTRIC SERVICE
• NEW WELL PUMP
• LARGE BACK YARD
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (35.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mohawk Area SD (rural): math 41% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #159 of 539 in PA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,500 (35.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.16%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,728
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
143 Old Hickory Rd	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,218 (+12%)	13mo	$190,000	$156	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-37,058
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-47,771
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16102

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,145/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $-187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,231

Max offer price $122,006

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
916 Mount Jackson Rd Apt 1 New Castle, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	43d	1	0.34mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 334-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $155,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,145 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,797 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$652/yr (+$54/mo · 57.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,145
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$955
• − Management: −$955
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$5,082
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,220
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mohawk Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215540
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $49,801
• Composite: 43.93/100
• National rank: #2908
• State rank: #159 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Jackson

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Jackson, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,933

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,781 people
• By 2030: 77,978 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 69,522 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 61,344 · -25.0%
• By 2075: 45,027 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 31,305 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.8% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 153.0061
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $155,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,145 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.