626 N Forest Ave · Springfield, MO 65802

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 733 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1962 9,583 sqft lot $136/sqft · 6% above area Est $135k · 26% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Immaculate and move-in ready! This may be the cleanest 2-bedroom, 1-bath home on the market. FHA-friendly and ready to sail through financing with ease. Features include newer windows, low-maintenance permanent siding, updated soffits and fascia, and a permanent heat source for peace of mind. The spacious backyard offers endless possibilities for entertaining, gardening, or play, and the attached carport provides convenient covered parking. A well-maintained home like this is hard to find at this price point!

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Attached carport
• Newer windows

Tags

• NEWER WINDOWS
• UPDATED SOFFITS AND FASCIA
• PERMANENT HEAT SOURCE
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• ATTACHED CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No additional amenities
• Financial info: No additional financial details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA details provided

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with 1 garage space
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: No construction material, year built, roof, or foundation details provided
• Exterior features: 0.22-acre lot; Subdivision: Haseltines Orchard; Public water; Public sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall furnace; Central heating; Has cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $91k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westport Elem. (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,007 of 1,115 statewide, top 91%, 384 students, 88% FRL); Pipkin Middle (math 20% / reading 29%, grade F, #324 of 391 statewide, top 83%, 340 students, 82% FRL); Central High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 1,464 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 46% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 520 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,362 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.85%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $134,852
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -25.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
810 N West Ave	0.20mi	2/1.0	768 (+5%)	3mo	$119,000	$155	80
906 N Brown Ave	0.27mi	2/1.0	796 (+9%)	3mo	$140,000	$176	71
1030 N Warren Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0	700 (-4%)	7mo	$95,000	$136	69
1122 N Brown Ave	0.44mi	2/1.0	704 (-4%)	6mo	$115,000	$163	68
1200 N Ethyl Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0	728 (-1%)	8mo	$69,900	$96	68
2435 W Calhoun St	0.54mi	2/1.0	700 (-4%)	3mo	$140,000	$200	65
612 N Park Ave	0.17mi	2/1.0	624 (-15%)	4mo	$89,900	$144	63
1106 N Clifton Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0	808 (+10%)	1mo	$135,000	$167	62
207 N Forest Ave	0.41mi	2/1.0	624 (-15%)	6mo	$125,000	$200	51
2546 W Walnut St	0.55mi	2/1.0	824 (+12%)	9mo	$108,000	$131	46
1016 N Wabash Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0	630 (-14%)	9mo	$89,900	$143	44
619 N Nettleton Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0	800 (+9%)	10mo	$133,400	$167	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-7,322
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $10,000
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65802

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 520
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $914 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $519/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$192
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $771

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $141	+0% $113	+5% $85	+10% $56
Rent	-10% $41	-5% $77	+0% $113	+5% $149	+10% $185
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $138	base $113	+0.5pp $87	+1.0pp $61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
522 N Park Ave Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	608	$950	$1.56	45d	1	0.18mi
2712 W Nichols St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	619	$795	$1.28	45d	1	0.46mi
2711 W Olive St Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	621	$750	$1.21	25d	1	0.51mi
1740 W Olive St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	736	$1,195	$1.62	15d	1	0.60mi
1911 W Elm St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	580	$875	$1.51	45d	1	0.68mi
520 S Scenic Ave Unit 101-A Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$650	$1.18	45d	1	0.70mi
916 N Kansas Expy Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	573	$595	$1.04	45d	1	0.72mi
1126 W Hamilton St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	648	$895	$1.38	25d	1	1.13mi
813 W Poplar St Unit 813 Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	560	$795	$1.42	15d	1	1.30mi
733 W College St Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$750	$1.07	15d	1	1.39mi
2115 N Grace Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	650	$850	$1.31	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $99,900 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    price $99,900 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,950 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,950 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,950 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $104,950 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    listed $104,950 Active 514-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $519 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$450/yr (+$38/mo · 86.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,963
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$519
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$877
• − Management: −$877
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$75
• After-tax cash flow: $1,431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 46,739
• Household income: $55,019
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1818.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.72%
• Current HPI: 212.9826
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.82%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $99,900 SOMO
• 2026-05-09 Listed $104,950 SOMO

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $519 · +22.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.