1640 Canary Ave · Lockwood, MT 59101

$238,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1957 0.41 ac lot Est $444k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come home to comfort and quiet! This cozy home reflects new from top to bottom, with a beautiful remodeled kitchen, and a cozy living room. Large main floor laundry room with a sink. You have plenty of room to play in the 18,000 sq ft lot. Long circular driveway. There is an easement for the neighbors to the back.

Key facts

• Large yard
• Main floor living
• 0.41 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• MAIN FLOOR LIVING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; 220V electric service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Built area above grade: 1,760; Construction materials and year built not provided; Foundation details not provided
• Exterior features: Storage; Deck; Patio; Storm doors; Fenced yard; Asphalt shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Cooktop
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Pantry; Window coverings and treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($679/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.7% in Lockwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#238 in MT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lockwood K-12 (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #86 of 116 in MT (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lockwood Primary (374 students, 0% FRL); Lockwood Middle School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #115 of 146 statewide, top 79%, 433 students, 0% FRL); Lockwood High School (546 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 35% district-wide (35 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 279 active listings in the ZIP; 1,401 units permitted in Yellowstone County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yellowstone County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,268 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.02%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $443,520
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1225 Full Moon Circle Cir	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,945 (+10%)	12mo	$490,000	$252	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-33,155
• Equity at exit: $35,487

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-16,661
• Equity at exit: $20,578

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59101

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,933 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,476/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,861

Max offer price $238,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $238,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   status $238,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,000 Active Under Contract 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,000 Active Under Contract 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,000 Active Under Contract 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,000 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $238,000 Active Under Contract 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $238,000 Active Under Contract 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $238,000 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $238,000 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $238,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $238,000 Active Under Contract 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,000 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,000 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,000 Active Under Contract 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,000 Active Under Contract 12 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $238,000 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
19. 2026-05-19
    listed $238,000 Active
20. 2018-03-30
    soldstatus 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Come home to comfort and quiet! This cozy home reflects new from top to bottom, with a beautiful remodeled kitchen, and a cozy living room. Large main floor laundry room with a sink. You have plenty of room to play in the 18,000 sq ft lot. Long circular driveway. There is an easement for the neighbors to the back.

21. 2018-03-30
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Come home to comfort and quiet! This cozy home reflects new from top to bottom, with a beautiful remodeled kitchen, and a cozy living room. Large main floor laundry room with a sink. You have plenty of room to play in the 18,000 sq ft lot. Long circular driveway. There is an easement for the neighbors to the back.

22. 2018-02-09
    listed $168,000 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Come home to comfort and quiet! This cozy home reflects new from top to bottom, with a beautiful remodeled kitchen, and a cozy living room. Large main floor laundry room with a sink. You have plenty of room to play in the 18,000 sq ft lot. Long circular driveway. There is an easement for the neighbors to the back.

23. 1995-11-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,999 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$524/yr (+$44/mo · 35.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥94°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$1,476
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$3,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$825
• After-tax cash flow: $1,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockwood K-12
• NCES district ID: 3000656
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,104
• Composite: 23.97/100
• National rank: #7779
• State rank: #86 of 116 in MT

Livability — Lockwood

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #238
• US rank: #20350

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockwood, MT
• County: Yellowstone County · 159,426 people
• Metro: Billings, MT
• Population (ZIP): 42,250
• Household income: $58,598
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1534.0

Population outlook (Yellowstone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,227 people
• By 2030: 185,619 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 203,543 · +15.5%
• By 2050: 221,100 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 266,931 · +51.5%
• By 2100: 301,141 · +70.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 9% Two or more races 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yellowstone

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 34.9% · R 62.0% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.74%
• Current HPI: 201.7039
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.96%
• Metro: Billings, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

+41.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $238,000 BMTMLS
• 2018-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-30 Sold (MLS) — BMTMLS
• 2018-02-09 Listed $168,000 BMTMLS
• 1995-11-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,476 · -29.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.