2848 Franklin Dr · Celina, TX 75009

$330,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,532 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 2021 4,182 sqft lot $215/sqft · 21% below area Est $416k · 21% under $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream home in the heart of Celina, Texas—one of the fastest-growing towns in the nation! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers a perfect blend of modern comfort and suburban serenity, ideal for families, first-time buyers, or those seeking a peaceful retreat just minutes from the bustling Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.Step inside to discover an open-concept layout flooded with natural light, featuring extensive luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring throughout the main living areas for a seamless, durable, and stylish flow. The spacious kitchen is a chef's delight, boasting sleek granite countertops, premium stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinetry—perfect for whipping up family meals or entertaining guests.The primary suite provides a private oasis with an en-suite bathroom, while the two additional bedrooms offer versatility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Both bathrooms are thoughtfully designed with modern fixtures and plenty of storage.Outside, enjoy a well-maintained yard with room for outdoor gatherings, all set in a vibrant community known for its top-rated schools, new developments, and easy access to highways, shopping, and dining. With Celina's explosive growth—fueled by tech jobs, new infrastructure, and family-friendly amenities—this home isn't just a place to live; it's a smart investment in one of America's hottest real estate markets.Don't miss out—schedule your showing today and make this Celina gem yours!

Key facts

• Well-maintained yard
• Granite countertops
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WELL-MAINTAINED YARD
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-509 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (27.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2895 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,151 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.61%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $416,465
• List price: $330,000
• Delta: -20.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1609 Princeton Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,532 (0%)	20mo	$369,900	$241	77
1512 Bennington Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+5%)	7mo	$349,000	$218	75
1601 Bennington Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+5%)	11mo	$369,900	$231	73
2724 Hale Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,532 (0%)	22mo	$375,000	$245	71
2905 Sunnyside Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,502 (-2%)	17mo	$410,000	$273	71
1510 Princeton Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+5%)	16mo	$385,000	$240	70
3001 Barefoot Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,693 (+10%)	4mo	$395,000	$233	68
2828 Hale Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+5%)	23mo	$360,000	$225	64
1513 Wayback Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,420 (-7%)	12mo	$410,000	$289	64
1529 Wayback Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,742 (+14%)	21mo	$450,000	$258	52
2608 Holland Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,597 (+4%)	23mo	$475,000	$297	45
2805 Epping Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,607 (+5%)	24mo	$475,000	$296	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-93,295
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -60.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-151,611
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2895
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,608 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$634 /mo · $7,609/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-509

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,252

Max offer price $240,151

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1613 Wayback Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1804	$2,795	$1.55	43d	1	0.12mi
1540 Princeton Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1947	$2,550	$1.31	43d	1	0.13mi
2926 Culver Ave Prosper, TX	4.0	2.0	2024	$2,900	$1.43	13d	1	0.18mi
1624 Seashore Ave Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1977	$3,095	$1.57	24d	1	0.34mi
2700 Rambling Rd Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	2004	$2,600	$1.30	19d	1	0.36mi
2608 Rambling Rd Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	1892	$2,500	$1.32	24d	1	0.38mi
2101 S Celina Pkwy Celina, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	1011	$2,820	$2.79	1d	59	0.63mi
2001 S Celina Pkwy Celina, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1057	$2,371	$2.24	2d	27	0.82mi
3100 W Punk Carter Pkwy Celina, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1248	$2,574	$2.06	1d	39	1.03mi
1704 Emilia Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1689	$2,400	$1.42	22d	1	1.07mi
505 W Ownsby Pkwy Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,485	$1.61	5d	1	1.13mi
505 W Ownsby Pkwy Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,396	$1.55	4d	1	1.13mi
717 Corner Post Path Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2058	$3,200	$1.55	13d	1	1.29mi
3817 Bennett Trl Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	1974	$2,500	$1.27	43d	1	1.35mi
438 Camille Xing Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	1974	$2,500	$1.27	13d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $330,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $330,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $330,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $330,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-04-11
    price $330,000 1523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1523 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home in the heart of Celina, Texas—one of the fastest-growing towns in the nation! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers a perfect blend of modern comfort and suburban serenity, ideal for families, first-time buyers, or those seeking a peaceful retreat just minutes from the bustling Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.Step inside to discover an open-concept layout flooded with natural light, featuring extensive luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring throughout the main living areas for a seamless, durable, and stylish flow. The spacious kitchen is a chef's delight, boasting sleek granite countertops, premium stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinetry—perfect for whipping up family meals or entertaining guests.The primary suite provides a private oasis with an en-suite bathroom, while the two additional bedrooms offer versatility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Both bathrooms are thoughtfully designed with modern fixtures and plenty of storage.Outside, enjoy a well-maintained yard with room for outdoor gatherings, all set in a vibrant community known for its top-rated schools, new developments, and easy access to highways, shopping, and dining. With Celina's explosive growth—fueled by tech jobs, new infrastructure, and family-friendly amenities—this home isn't just a place to live; it's a smart investment in one of America's hottest real estate markets.Don't miss out—schedule your showing today and make this Celina gem yours!

15. 2026-03-25
    price $335,000 1523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1523 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home in the heart of Celina, Texas—one of the fastest-growing towns in the nation! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers a perfect blend of modern comfort and suburban serenity, ideal for families, first-time buyers, or those seeking a peaceful retreat just minutes from the bustling Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.Step inside to discover an open-concept layout flooded with natural light, featuring extensive luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring throughout the main living areas for a seamless, durable, and stylish flow. The spacious kitchen is a chef's delight, boasting sleek granite countertops, premium stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinetry—perfect for whipping up family meals or entertaining guests.The primary suite provides a private oasis with an en-suite bathroom, while the two additional bedrooms offer versatility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Both bathrooms are thoughtfully designed with modern fixtures and plenty of storage.Outside, enjoy a well-maintained yard with room for outdoor gatherings, all set in a vibrant community known for its top-rated schools, new developments, and easy access to highways, shopping, and dining. With Celina's explosive growth—fueled by tech jobs, new infrastructure, and family-friendly amenities—this home isn't just a place to live; it's a smart investment in one of America's hottest real estate markets.Don't miss out—schedule your showing today and make this Celina gem yours!

16. 2026-03-11
    listed $340,000 Active 1523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1523 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home in the heart of Celina, Texas—one of the fastest-growing towns in the nation! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers a perfect blend of modern comfort and suburban serenity, ideal for families, first-time buyers, or those seeking a peaceful retreat just minutes from the bustling Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.Step inside to discover an open-concept layout flooded with natural light, featuring extensive luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring throughout the main living areas for a seamless, durable, and stylish flow. The spacious kitchen is a chef's delight, boasting sleek granite countertops, premium stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinetry—perfect for whipping up family meals or entertaining guests.The primary suite provides a private oasis with an en-suite bathroom, while the two additional bedrooms offer versatility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Both bathrooms are thoughtfully designed with modern fixtures and plenty of storage.Outside, enjoy a well-maintained yard with room for outdoor gatherings, all set in a vibrant community known for its top-rated schools, new developments, and easy access to highways, shopping, and dining. With Celina's explosive growth—fueled by tech jobs, new infrastructure, and family-friendly amenities—this home isn't just a place to live; it's a smart investment in one of America's hottest real estate markets.Don't miss out—schedule your showing today and make this Celina gem yours!

17. 2024-03-03
    historical $2,400
18. 2024-01-22
    listed $2,400
19. 2022-03-04
    soldstatus Closed 52-char remark

    Show marketing remark (52 chars)

    1 story, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car rear entry elevation B

20. 2022-03-02
    status Pending 52-char remark

    Show marketing remark (52 chars)

    1 story, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car rear entry elevation B

21. 2022-02-08
    status Pending 52-char remark

    Show marketing remark (52 chars)

    1 story, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car rear entry elevation B

22. 2022-01-28
    price $354,490 52-char remark

    Show marketing remark (52 chars)

    1 story, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car rear entry elevation B

23. 2022-01-26
    listed $352,490 Active 52-char remark

    Show marketing remark (52 chars)

    1 story, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car rear entry elevation B

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,609 · $634/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,609 · $634/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$7,609
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,504
• − Management: −$2,504
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$11,857
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,846
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $330,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $335,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $340,000 NTREIS
• 2024-03-03 Rental Removed $2,400 NTREIS
• 2024-01-22 Listed for Rent $2,400 NTREIS
• 2022-03-04 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-03-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-02-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-01-28 Price Changed $354,490 NTREIS
• 2022-01-26 Listed $352,490 NTREIS

Property tax history

+42.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,609 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.