5010 Creekside Ave · Cove, TX 77523

$259,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,762 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2009 6,838 sqft lot $94/sqft · 24% below area Est $342k · 24% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4 bedroom home is conveniently located close to I-10 for an easy commute to Houston or Beaumont. The home features a spacious formal dining area, large den, and a downstairs primary bedroom. Upstairs there is a large game room, 3 bedrooms with 2 bathrooms. In the backyard there is a storage shed and a nice playset which are included in the sale.

Key facts

• Extra storage
• Convenient access
• Kitchen island

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND
• EXTRA STORAGE
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Creekside homeowners association; Annual association fee of $500

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Located in a cul-de-sac within a subdivision; Full ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 2009; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced backyard; Private yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Kitchen with pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (sizes approximately 15x10, 13x12, 12x12); Den on the first floor (approximately 20x17)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen open to family room; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $259k).
• Recommended offer: $251k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.3% in Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.03%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,035
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: -24.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4815 Manila Bay Cir	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,692 (-2%)	0mo	$419,900	$156	85
8614 Briar Oaks Ln	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,778 (+1%)	2mo	$359,998	$130	85
4839 Echo Bay Dr	0.29mi	4/3.5	2,671 (-3%)	2mo	$259,900	$97	80
8611 Rocky River St	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,658 (-4%)	1mo	$345,000	$130	75
8511 Holly Spring Ln	0.06mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,069 (+11%)	2mo	$385,000	$125	68
4727 Bay Vista Dr	0.29mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,929 (+6%)	4mo	$384,600	$131	66
4703 Bay Vista Dr	0.34mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,929 (+6%)	4mo	$368,881	$126	64
4715 Bay Vista Dr	0.31mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,563 (-7%)	4mo	$367,000	$143	63
8407 Tranquil Bay Ct	0.34mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,563 (-7%)	3mo	$398,128	$155	63
8438 Bay Oaks Dr	0.37mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,929 (+6%)	4mo	$369,900	$126	62
8339 Hampton Bay Dr	0.33mi	4/3.5	2,359 (-15%)	0mo	$330,000	$140	60
14227 Angelina Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5	2,601 (-6%)	2mo	$399,000	$153	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-25,175
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $3,401
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,756 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$426 /mo · $5,114/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $390	-5% $317	+0% $243	+5% $170	+10% $97
Rent	-10% $26	-5% $134	+0% $243	+5% $352	+10% $461
Rate	-1.0pp $374	-0.5pp $309	base $243	+0.5pp $176	+1.0pp $108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	25d	1	0.41mi
8411 Hannah Rd Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,195	$0.94	25d	1	0.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $259,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $272,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $272,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $272,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $272,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $272,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $272,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $272,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $272,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    listed $272,000 Active 570-char remark
15. 2022-04-21
    soldstatus
16. 2022-04-18
    soldstatus Sold 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    This 4 bedroom home is conveniently located close to I-10 for an easy commute to Houston or Beaumont. The home features a spacious formal dining area, large den, and a downstairs primary bedroom. Upstairs there is a large game room, 3 bedrooms with 2 bathrooms. In the backyard there is a storage shed and a nice playset which are included in the sale.

17. 2022-03-31
    status Pending 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    This 4 bedroom home is conveniently located close to I-10 for an easy commute to Houston or Beaumont. The home features a spacious formal dining area, large den, and a downstairs primary bedroom. Upstairs there is a large game room, 3 bedrooms with 2 bathrooms. In the backyard there is a storage shed and a nice playset which are included in the sale.

18. 2022-03-15
    status Option Pending 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    This 4 bedroom home is conveniently located close to I-10 for an easy commute to Houston or Beaumont. The home features a spacious formal dining area, large den, and a downstairs primary bedroom. Upstairs there is a large game room, 3 bedrooms with 2 bathrooms. In the backyard there is a storage shed and a nice playset which are included in the sale.

19. 2022-03-11
    status Active 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    This 4 bedroom home is conveniently located close to I-10 for an easy commute to Houston or Beaumont. The home features a spacious formal dining area, large den, and a downstairs primary bedroom. Upstairs there is a large game room, 3 bedrooms with 2 bathrooms. In the backyard there is a storage shed and a nice playset which are included in the sale.

20. 2022-02-24
    status Option Pending 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    This 4 bedroom home is conveniently located close to I-10 for an easy commute to Houston or Beaumont. The home features a spacious formal dining area, large den, and a downstairs primary bedroom. Upstairs there is a large game room, 3 bedrooms with 2 bathrooms. In the backyard there is a storage shed and a nice playset which are included in the sale.

21. 2022-02-09
    listed $314,500 Active 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    This 4 bedroom home is conveniently located close to I-10 for an easy commute to Houston or Beaumont. The home features a spacious formal dining area, large den, and a downstairs primary bedroom. Upstairs there is a large game room, 3 bedrooms with 2 bathrooms. In the backyard there is a storage shed and a nice playset which are included in the sale.

22. 2009-07-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,114 · $426/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,114 · $426/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 48% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$5,114
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,646
• − Management: −$2,646
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$1,171
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$281
• After-tax cash flow: $3,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $272,000 HARMLS
• 2022-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-03-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-02-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-09 Listed $314,500 HARMLS
• 2009-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,114 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.