412 Poplar Grove St · Baltimore, MD 21223

$22,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Townhouse public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1925 1,013 sqft lot $21/sqft · 70% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special!! Property must be listed as active for 15 days as per lender guidelines. Opportunity knocks for savvy investors looking for their next project. This property is in need of a full renovation and is being sold strictly as-is and subject to short sale approval. Ideal for experienced investors looking to add value and maximize returns. Perfect for a fix-and-flip, rental portfolio addition, or redevelopment. Bring your vision and your contractor! Cash or hard money preferred. Property will require significant work. No utilities on. Use caution when entering. Buyer to verify all property condition, utilities, and potential use. Seller will make no repairs. Buyer will also need to pay up to $11,000 toward seller’s secondary liens including past city water bills.

Key facts

• Built 1925
• Listed 51 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $22k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $22k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 72.2% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,810/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 1755% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $156 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $675 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 12% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $21,825 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 72.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 235.24%
• DSCR: 11.47
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,499
• List price: $22,500
• Delta: -70.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3039 Harlem Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,070 (-2%)	1mo	$27,500	$26	84
537 Longwood St	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (+8%)	0mo	$60,000	$51	74
222 N Hilton St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+3%)	1mo	$89,775	$80	72
43 Wheeler Ave N	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,144 (+5%)	3mo	$34,000	$30	60
107 N Monastery Ave	0.67mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,080 (-1%)	2mo	$65,000	$60	58
3302 W Franklin St	0.44mi	3/1.0	960 (-12%)	2mo	$50,000	$52	58
119 Hilton St	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-5%)	0mo	$211,000	$203	57
133 N Monastery Ave	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-1%)	3mo	$142,000	$131	57
2576 W Baltimore St W	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+10%)	2mo	$152,000	$127	55
3306 W Franklin St	0.45mi	3/2.0	960 (-12%)	1mo	$51,500	$54	54
2544 W Fairmount Ave	0.49mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,204 (+10%)	2mo	$55,000	$46	51
1218 N Longwood St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (+9%)	2mo	$56,000	$47	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.28×
• Total profit: $83,653
• Equity at exit: $3,355

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 34.81×
• Total profit: $213,023
• Equity at exit: $1,945

Cash invested: $6,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21223

• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,810 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$118
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $812/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $1,235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $247

Max offer price $22,500

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,248	-5% $1,241	+0% $1,235	+5% $1,229	+10% $1,222
Rent	-10% $1,092	-5% $1,164	+0% $1,235	+5% $1,307	+10% $1,378
Rate	-1.0pp $1,246	-0.5pp $1,241	base $1,235	+0.5pp $1,229	+1.0pp $1,223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,625
• Closing costs: $675
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2815 W Mulberry St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1040	$2,050	$1.97	44d	1	0.12mi
2636 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1232	$1,900	$1.54	44d	1	0.26mi
3015 Rayner Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	44d	1	0.26mi
2609 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,675	$1.30	24d	1	0.29mi
2744 W Mosher St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1412	$2,100	$1.49	24d	1	0.46mi
709 Denison St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	840	$1,630	$1.94	24d	1	0.50mi
2806 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1412	$1,900	$1.35	4d	1	0.52mi
3423 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1400	$1,710	$1.22	44d	1	0.53mi
405 N Edgewood St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1408	$2,950	$2.10	5d	1	0.55mi
1042 Ellicott Dr Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	44d	1	0.56mi
41 N Kossuth St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,800	$1.48	24d	1	0.57mi
3507 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1428	$2,300	$1.61	44d	1	0.59mi
780 Linnard St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,590	$1.30	44d	1	0.60mi
3310 Elbert St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	920	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	0.60mi
2537 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	24d	1	0.60mi
2516 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	0.60mi
2728 Winchester St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$1,800	$1.43	4d	1	0.61mi
787 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,575	$1.41	24d	1	0.62mi
730 Linnard St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1360	$1,750	$1.29	24d	1	0.63mi
798 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,295	$1.69	24d	1	0.64mi
3336 W Caton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,625	$1.31	24d	1	0.64mi
3238 Westmont Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1280	$1,600	$1.25	44d	1	0.65mi
62 N Gorman Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	18d	1	0.66mi
623 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	24d	1	0.66mi
2303 Calverton Heights Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1314	$2,250	$1.71	24d	1	0.67mi
3607 W Lexington St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,895	$1.80	5d	1	0.67mi
110 S Catherine St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1330	$1,500	$1.13	44d	1	0.71mi
918 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1485	$1,750	$1.18	44d	1	0.73mi
3706 W Franklin St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	735	$1,100	$1.50	5d	1	0.75mi
2232 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,875	$1.50	24d	1	0.75mi
2225 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,600	$1.33	24d	1	0.77mi
2301 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,600	$1.49	24d	1	0.78mi
3712 Gelston Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	24d	1	0.79mi
3003 Presstman St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	45d	1	0.79mi
3003 Presstman St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1450	$1,300	$0.90	24d	1	0.79mi
332 S Franklintown Rd Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	776	$795	$1.02	24d	1	0.79mi
2540 Frederick Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,400	$1.30	24d	1	0.82mi
2800 Presstman St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,799	$1.23	24d	1	0.82mi
2012 W Saratoga St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	24d	1	0.84mi
3309 Brighton St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,700	$1.50	44d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $22,500 Pending 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $22,500 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $22,500 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $22,500 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $20,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $20,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $20,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $20,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $20,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-04-22
    listed $20,000 Active 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Investor Special!! Property must be listed as active for 15 days as per lender guidelines. Opportunity knocks for savvy investors looking for their next project. This property is in need of a full renovation and is being sold strictly as-is and subject to short sale approval. Ideal for experienced investors looking to add value and maximize returns. Perfect for a fix-and-flip, rental portfolio addition, or redevelopment. Bring your vision and your contractor! Cash or hard money preferred. Property will require significant work. No utilities on. Use caution when entering. Buyer to verify all property condition, utilities, and potential use. Seller will make no repairs. Buyer will also need to pay up to $11,000 toward seller’s secondary liens including past city water bills.

11. 2004-04-12
    soldstatus $28,905
12. 2003-01-24
    historical
13. 2002-08-19
    listed
14. 1999-04-09
    soldstatus $55,000
15. 1987-04-15
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,260
• − Property taxes: −$812
• − Insurance: −$112
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,738
• − Management: −$1,738
• − Depreciation: −$655
• Taxable income: $15,408
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,698
• After-tax cash flow: $11,123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 19,572
• Household income: $45,840
• Rent vs Own: 68.0% rent · 32.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1755.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 72% White 16% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.99%
• Current HPI: 140.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $20,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $28,905 Public Records
• 2003-01-24 Delisted — MRIS
• 2002-08-19 Listed — MRIS
• 1999-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1987-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $812 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.