731-733 Lincoln Ave · Erie, PA 16505

$200,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,788 sqft · MultiFamily · 266 Days on market

Built 1907 6,098 sqft lot Est $159k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

SPACIOUS 3 UNIT INVESTMENT PROPERTY IN DESIREABLE FRONTIER NEIGHBORHOOD! 1ST FLOOR HAS BEEN USED AS A BUSINESS/COMMERCIAL RENTAL IN THE PAST, WOULD BE NICE 3 BEDROOM APARTMENT. 2ND FLOOR A TWO BEDROOM UNIT & 3RD FLOOR A ONE BEDROOM UNIT. ALL 3 UNITS ARE READY FOR YOUR TENANTS OR GREAT OWNER OCCUPIED OPPORTUNITY & CASH FLOW FROM OTHER TWO UNITS. OFF STREET PARKING FOR ALL WITH PAVED DRIVEWAYS ON THE NORTH AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE BUILDING. NEW WINDOWS THROUGHOUT AND 2 NEWER FURNACES. 1 CAR GARAGE!

Key facts

• Off street parking
• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1907

Tags

• OFF STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive. Per door: $540/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 5.1% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.15%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,916
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1402 W 8th St	0.42mi	6/2.0	2,646 (-5%)	19mo	$150,000	$57	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $36,442
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $120,519
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16505

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,117 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $1,080

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,218	-5% $1,149	+0% $1,080	+5% $1,011	+10% $942
Rent	-10% $834	-5% $957	+0% $1,080	+5% $1,203	+10% $1,327
Rate	-1.0pp $1,181	-0.5pp $1,131	base $1,080	+0.5pp $1,028	+1.0pp $976

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	—	$3,116
Total (2 units)			$3,117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 266 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 264 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   status $200,000 Active 263 DOM
4. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-06
   price $200,000
6. 2025-07-08
   listed $220,000 Active
7. 2022-10-21
   soldstatus $182,000 Closed 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   SPACIOUS 3 UNIT INVESTMENT PROPERTY IN DESIREABLE FRONTIER NEIGHBORHOOD! 1ST FLOOR HAS BEEN USED AS A BUSINESS/COMMERCIAL RENTAL IN THE PAST, WOULD BE NICE 3 BEDROOM APARTMENT. 2ND FLOOR A TWO BEDROOM UNIT & 3RD FLOOR A ONE BEDROOM UNIT. ALL 3 UNITS ARE READY FOR YOUR TENANTS OR GREAT OWNER OCCUPIED OPPORTUNITY & CASH FLOW FROM OTHER TWO UNITS. OFF STREET PARKING FOR ALL WITH PAVED DRIVEWAYS ON THE NORTH AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE BUILDING. NEW WINDOWS THROUGHOUT AND 2 NEWER FURNACES. 1 CAR GARAGE!

8. 2022-10-08
   status Pending 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   SPACIOUS 3 UNIT INVESTMENT PROPERTY IN DESIREABLE FRONTIER NEIGHBORHOOD! 1ST FLOOR HAS BEEN USED AS A BUSINESS/COMMERCIAL RENTAL IN THE PAST, WOULD BE NICE 3 BEDROOM APARTMENT. 2ND FLOOR A TWO BEDROOM UNIT & 3RD FLOOR A ONE BEDROOM UNIT. ALL 3 UNITS ARE READY FOR YOUR TENANTS OR GREAT OWNER OCCUPIED OPPORTUNITY & CASH FLOW FROM OTHER TWO UNITS. OFF STREET PARKING FOR ALL WITH PAVED DRIVEWAYS ON THE NORTH AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE BUILDING. NEW WINDOWS THROUGHOUT AND 2 NEWER FURNACES. 1 CAR GARAGE!

9. 2022-10-03
   listed $155,000 Active 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   SPACIOUS 3 UNIT INVESTMENT PROPERTY IN DESIREABLE FRONTIER NEIGHBORHOOD! 1ST FLOOR HAS BEEN USED AS A BUSINESS/COMMERCIAL RENTAL IN THE PAST, WOULD BE NICE 3 BEDROOM APARTMENT. 2ND FLOOR A TWO BEDROOM UNIT & 3RD FLOOR A ONE BEDROOM UNIT. ALL 3 UNITS ARE READY FOR YOUR TENANTS OR GREAT OWNER OCCUPIED OPPORTUNITY & CASH FLOW FROM OTHER TWO UNITS. OFF STREET PARKING FOR ALL WITH PAVED DRIVEWAYS ON THE NORTH AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE BUILDING. NEW WINDOWS THROUGHOUT AND 2 NEWER FURNACES. 1 CAR GARAGE!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,992
• − Management: −$2,992
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $10,398
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,496
• After-tax cash flow: $10,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,631

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.22%
• Current HPI: 240.6976
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+29.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $200,000 GEBOR
• 2025-07-08 Listed $220,000 GEBOR
• 2022-10-21 Sold (MLS) $182,000 GEBOR
• 2022-10-08 Pending — GEBOR
• 2022-10-03 Listed $155,000 GEBOR