626 W River Rd · Dalton, MI 49445

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2008 1.51 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 626 W. River Road. 1.5 acres surrounded by trees. Shared driveway with 1 other home. If you like your privacy you have found it!! Close to all the ammenities you need. Within 5 minutes to highways, grocery stores, restaurants. Spacious and open and bright with a slider to large deck and wooded back yard. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home is neat and clean and welcoming. A few bumps and bruises on the walls of which most were there at purchase. Recent upgrades include connection to City water, central air, front storm door. (Note shower head recently broke and will be replaced). Septic inspection completed and there are no issues. Security system and Ring system to stay. All appliances stay (except portable microwave). Hurry don't miss out.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Wooded back yard
• 1.5 acres

Tags

• 1.5 ACRES
• SHARED DRIVEWAY
• LARGE DECK
• WOODED BACK YARD
• CONNECTION TO CITY WATER
• CENTRAL AIR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Ranch-style homeSingle-story (ranch)
• Construction: Built in 2008Vinyl sidingComposition roofCrawl space basement
• Exterior features: Paved road access1.51-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroomBedroom 2Bedroom 3Bedroom 4
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerLaundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-179 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Reeths-Puffer Schools (suburban): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #254 of 540 in MI (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Reethspuffer Middle School (math 29% / reading 54%, grade F, #192 of 493 statewide, top 39%, 542 students, 55% FRL); Reethspuffer High School (math 25% / reading 54%, grade F, #304 of 713 statewide, top 46%, 1,177 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 438 units permitted in Muskegon County in 2024 (115 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Muskegon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $225k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,463 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.40%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $111,083
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $335,902
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49445

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,313/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $-179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,751

Max offer price $193,449

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-51	-5% $-115	+0% $-179	+5% $-242	+10% $-306
Rent	-10% $-299	-5% $-239	+0% $-179	+5% $-118	+10% $-58
Rate	-1.0pp $-65	-0.5pp $-121	base $-179	+0.5pp $-237	+1.0pp $-296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $225,000 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $225,000 Active 17 DOM

   Show marketing remark (754 chars)

   Welcome to 626 W. River Road. 1.5 acres surrounded by trees. Shared driveway with 1 other home. If you like your privacy you have found it!! Close to all the ammenities you need. Within 5 minutes to highways, grocery stores, restaurants. Spacious and open and bright with a slider to large deck and wooded back yard. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home is neat and clean and welcoming. A few bumps and bruises on the walls of which most were there at purchase. Recent upgrades include connection to City water, central air, front storm door. (Note shower head recently broke and will be replaced). Septic inspection completed and there are no issues. Security system and Ring system to stay. All appliances stay (except portable microwave). Hurry don't miss out.

3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $225,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $225,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-05-21
   status Active 701-char remark

   Show marketing remark (754 chars)

   Welcome to 626 W. River Road. 1.5 acres surrounded by trees. Shared driveway with 1 other home. If you like your privacy you have found it!! Close to all the ammenities you need. Within 5 minutes to highways, grocery stores, restaurants. Spacious and open and bright with a slider to large deck and wooded back yard. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home is neat and clean and welcoming. A few bumps and bruises on the walls of which most were there at purchase. Recent upgrades include connection to City water, central air, front storm door. (Note shower head recently broke and will be replaced). Septic inspection completed and there are no issues. Security system and Ring system to stay. All appliances stay (except portable microwave). Hurry don't miss out.

7. 2026-05-21
   status Active 701-char remark

   Show marketing remark (754 chars)

   Welcome to 626 W. River Road. 1.5 acres surrounded by trees. Shared driveway with 1 other home. If you like your privacy you have found it!! Close to all the ammenities you need. Within 5 minutes to highways, grocery stores, restaurants. Spacious and open and bright with a slider to large deck and wooded back yard. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home is neat and clean and welcoming. A few bumps and bruises on the walls of which most were there at purchase. Recent upgrades include connection to City water, central air, front storm door. (Note shower head recently broke and will be replaced). Septic inspection completed and there are no issues. Security system and Ring system to stay. All appliances stay (except portable microwave). Hurry don't miss out.

8. 2026-05-21
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (754 chars)

   Welcome to 626 W. River Road. 1.5 acres surrounded by trees. Shared driveway with 1 other home. If you like your privacy you have found it!! Close to all the ammenities you need. Within 5 minutes to highways, grocery stores, restaurants. Spacious and open and bright with a slider to large deck and wooded back yard. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home is neat and clean and welcoming. A few bumps and bruises on the walls of which most were there at purchase. Recent upgrades include connection to City water, central air, front storm door. (Note shower head recently broke and will be replaced). Septic inspection completed and there are no issues. Security system and Ring system to stay. All appliances stay (except portable microwave). Hurry don't miss out.

9. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 701-char remark

   Show marketing remark (754 chars)

   Welcome to 626 W. River Road. 1.5 acres surrounded by trees. Shared driveway with 1 other home. If you like your privacy you have found it!! Close to all the ammenities you need. Within 5 minutes to highways, grocery stores, restaurants. Spacious and open and bright with a slider to large deck and wooded back yard. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home is neat and clean and welcoming. A few bumps and bruises on the walls of which most were there at purchase. Recent upgrades include connection to City water, central air, front storm door. (Note shower head recently broke and will be replaced). Septic inspection completed and there are no issues. Security system and Ring system to stay. All appliances stay (except portable microwave). Hurry don't miss out.

10. 2026-05-12
    status Pending 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Welcome to 626 W. River Road. 1.5 acres surrounded by trees. Shared driveway with 1 other home. If you like your privacy you have found it!! Close to all the ammenities you need. Within 5 minutes to highways, grocery stores, restaurants. Spacious and open and bright with a slider to large deck and wooded back yard. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home is neat and clean and welcoming. A few bumps and bruises on the walls of which most were there at purchase. Recent upgrades include connection to City water, central air, front storm door. (Note shower head recently broke and will be replaced). Septic inspection completed and there are no issues. Security system and Ring system to stay. All appliances stay (except portable microwave). Hurry don't miss out.

11. 2026-05-12
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Welcome to 626 W. River Road. 1.5 acres surrounded by trees. Shared driveway with 1 other home. If you like your privacy you have found it!! Close to all the ammenities you need. Within 5 minutes to highways, grocery stores, restaurants. Spacious and open and bright with a slider to large deck and wooded back yard. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home is neat and clean and welcoming. A few bumps and bruises on the walls of which most were there at purchase. Recent upgrades include connection to City water, central air, front storm door. (Note shower head recently broke and will be replaced). Septic inspection completed and there are no issues. Security system and Ring system to stay. All appliances stay (except portable microwave). Hurry don't miss out.

12. 2026-05-08
    listed $240,000 Active 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Welcome to 626 W. River Road. 1.5 acres surrounded by trees. Shared driveway with 1 other home. If you like your privacy you have found it!! Close to all the ammenities you need. Within 5 minutes to highways, grocery stores, restaurants. Spacious and open and bright with a slider to large deck and wooded back yard. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home is neat and clean and welcoming. A few bumps and bruises on the walls of which most were there at purchase. Recent upgrades include connection to City water, central air, front storm door. (Note shower head recently broke and will be replaced). Septic inspection completed and there are no issues. Security system and Ring system to stay. All appliances stay (except portable microwave). Hurry don't miss out.

13. 2026-05-08
    listed $240,000 Active 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Welcome to 626 W. River Road. 1.5 acres surrounded by trees. Shared driveway with 1 other home. If you like your privacy you have found it!! Close to all the ammenities you need. Within 5 minutes to highways, grocery stores, restaurants. Spacious and open and bright with a slider to large deck and wooded back yard. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home is neat and clean and welcoming. A few bumps and bruises on the walls of which most were there at purchase. Recent upgrades include connection to City water, central air, front storm door. (Note shower head recently broke and will be replaced). Septic inspection completed and there are no issues. Security system and Ring system to stay. All appliances stay (except portable microwave). Hurry don't miss out.

14. 2026-05-08
    listed $240,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Welcome to 626 W. River Road. 1.5 acres surrounded by trees. Shared driveway with 1 other home. If you like your privacy you have found it!! Close to all the ammenities you need. Within 5 minutes to highways, grocery stores, restaurants. Spacious and open and bright with a slider to large deck and wooded back yard. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home is neat and clean and welcoming. A few bumps and bruises on the walls of which most were there at purchase. Recent upgrades include connection to City water, central air, front storm door. (Note shower head recently broke and will be replaced). Septic inspection completed and there are no issues. Security system and Ring system to stay. All appliances stay (except portable microwave). Hurry don't miss out.

15. 2019-02-13
    soldstatus $71,070
16. 2019-02-13
    soldstatus $71,070 Sold
17. 2019-01-16
    status Pending
18. 2018-12-07
    price $74,900
19. 2018-11-15
    price $79,900
20. 2018-10-12
    listed $74,900
21. 2018-10-12
    listed $89,900 Active
22. 2018-10-12
    listed $74,900
23. 2013-03-07
    soldstatus $30,000
24. 2013-03-07
    soldstatus $30,000
25. 2013-01-29
    listed $32,000
26. 2013-01-29
    listed $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,313 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,389 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,076/yr (+$90/mo · 82.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,313
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,464
• − Management: −$1,464
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$6,218
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,492
• After-tax cash flow: $-651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reeths-Puffer Schools
• NCES district ID: 2629540
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,223
• Composite: 31.62/100
• National rank: #5942
• State rank: #254 of 540 in MI

Livability — Dalton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 21,090

Population outlook (Muskegon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,032 people
• By 2030: 173,365 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 168,877 · -3.0%
• By 2050: 160,306 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 134,426 · -22.8%
• By 2100: 98,836 · -43.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 10% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Muskegon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.4% · R 50.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 29.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.6 2016: D+0.9 2012: D+17.8 2008: D+29.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.82%
• Current HPI: 605.31
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+603.1% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-02 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-06-02 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $225,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $225,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $225,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-21 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-21 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-21 Relisted — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-12 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $240,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $240,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-08 Listed $240,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-02-13 Sold (MLS) $71,070 SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-02-13 Sold (MLS) $71,070 REALCOMP
• 2019-01-16 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-12-07 Price Changed $74,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-11-15 Price Changed $79,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-10-12 Listed $74,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-10-12 Listed $89,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-10-12 Listed $74,900 REALCOMP
• 2013-03-07 Sold (MLS) $30,000 REALCOMP
• 2013-03-07 Sold (MLS) $30,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2013-01-29 Listed $32,000 REALCOMP
• 2013-01-29 Listed $32,000 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,313 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.