194 Northcrest Dr · Marysville, OH 43040

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 62 Days on market

Built 2019 $66/sqft · at area comps Est $81k · at est. $619/mo HOA · 42% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Thoughtfully designed single-story living on a quiet cul-de-sac in sought-after Hillcrest Estates. Built in 2019, this meticulously maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features a split bedroom design and an open floor plan with crown molding throughout. A generous front porch and additional concrete patio areas extend your living space outdoors. The upgraded kitchen showcases a breakfast bar, modern fixtures, and newer appliances - ideal for everyday meals and effortless entertaining. New upgraded microwave and dishwasher. A convenient laundry room with rear door access is located just off the kitchen. The primary suite serves as a true retreat, offering a spacious walk-in closet, walk-in shower, and a relaxing soaking tub. Every room features wired overhead lighting, and ample storage is found throughout the home. An 8'x10' storage shed in the yard rounds out this turnkey property. Community amenities include a clubhouse, basketball court, and playground. Schedule your private tour today.

Key facts

• Generous front porch
• Open floor plan
• Split bedroom design

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LIVING
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• SPLIT BEDROOM DESIGN
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GENEROUS FRONT PORCH
• ADDITIONAL CONCRETE PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-56/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $79k (0.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.2% in Marysville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#157 in OH, #2,377 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Marysville Exempted Village (town): math 67% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #137 of 656 in OH (top 21%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 222 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,498 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (831 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $80k implies a 332% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent.

Recommended offer $75,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,905
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -1.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-16,130
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-25,625
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43040

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,477 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$619
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,483

Max offer price $79,323

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $23	+0% $-5	+5% $-32	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-121	-5% $-63	+0% $-5	+5% $54	+10% $112
Rate	-1.0pp $36	-0.5pp $16	base $-5	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-46

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14200 Industrial Pkwy Marysville, OH	2.0–3.0	2.0	1216	$1,075	$0.88	2d	1	0.10mi
1000 Kenmore Xing Marysville, OH	2.0	2.0	957	$1,310	$1.37	2d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $619 · $7,428/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-18
    listed $80,000 Active 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    Thoughtfully designed single-story living on a quiet cul-de-sac in sought-after Hillcrest Estates. Built in 2019, this meticulously maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features a split bedroom design and an open floor plan with crown molding throughout. A generous front porch and additional concrete patio areas extend your living space outdoors. The upgraded kitchen showcases a breakfast bar, modern fixtures, and newer appliances - ideal for everyday meals and effortless entertaining. New upgraded microwave and dishwasher. A convenient laundry room with rear door access is located just off the kitchen. The primary suite serves as a true retreat, offering a spacious walk-in closet, walk-in shower, and a relaxing soaking tub. Every room features wired overhead lighting, and ample storage is found throughout the home. An 8'x10' storage shed in the yard rounds out this turnkey property. Community amenities include a clubhouse, basketball court, and playground. Schedule your private tour today.

16. 2025-12-09
    listed $89,100 Active 1343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1343 chars)

    Hillcrest Estates in Marysville, Ohio is a beautiful manufactured home community owned and operated by UMH Properties, Inc. Enjoy living in the peace and quiet of the scenic countryside, while being close to many luxuries. Our high-quality affordable homes at Hillcrest Estates offer open concept floor plans with spacious living rooms, walk-in closets and primary suites. Each home has high-end attractive kitchens with wood kitchen cabinets, full kitchen appliances package and optional kitchen islands. Our turnkey ready homes also have a yard for those who love to garden or BBQ, a two-car driveway and an 8 x 10 storage shed. Hillcrest Estates is more than just a neighborhood; it is a community, featuring high-end amenities, free for our residents to use. Our amenities include a clubhouse, basketball court, and playground. Come see why Hillcrest Estates is somewhere you want to be! Hillcrest Estates community is situated near the cities of Columbus, Delaware, Bellefontaine, and Marion. Whatever your passion, Hillcrest Estates community puts you on the doorstep of many enjoyable attractions, including shopping, food stores, and gyms. Happiness extends well beyond our community grounds, making Hillcrest Estates a great home option. The residents of Hillcrest Estates community are located in the Marysville EVSD School District.

17. 2000-02-17
    soldstatus $18,500
18. 2000-02-02
    historical
19. 1999-09-22
    listed $18,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,729
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,418
• − Management: −$1,418
• − HOA: −$7,428
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable loss: −$944
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$227
• After-tax cash flow: $170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marysville Exempted Village
• NCES district ID: 3904547
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,329
• Composite: 60.81/100
• National rank: #819
• State rank: #137 of 656 in OH

Livability — Marysville

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #157
• US rank: #2377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marysville, OH
• County: Union County · 57,133 people
• City population: 38,990
• Metro: Columbus, OH
• Population (ZIP): 38,990
• Household income: $99,321
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,316 people
• By 2030: 60,024 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 62,846 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 64,195 · +10.1%
• By 2075: 65,468 · +12.3%
• By 2100: 60,748 · +4.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.6) · D 34.7% · R 64.3% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -29.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.6 2020: R+31.5 2016: R+38.0 2012: R+29.7 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -266.67%
• Current HPI: 237.0968
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.75%
• Metro: Columbus, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+323.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $80,000 CBRMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $89,100 Zillow
• 2000-02-17 Sold (MLS) $18,500 CBRMLS
• 2000-02-02 Listing Removed — CBRMLS
• 1999-09-22 Listed $18,900 CBRMLS