Meridian Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$333,290

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,366 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The collection's only two-story plan centers on convenience. On the first floor, a flex room offers a place to explore hobbies, while the open design of the living room and nook provide a contemporary style that leads to an extensive lanai. The nearby owner's suite is a tranquil escape, and upstairs, an additional bedroom and loft are perfect for guests.

Key facts

• Additional bedroom
• Open design
• Loft

Tags

• FLEX ROOM
• OPEN DESIGN
• EXTENSIVE LANAI
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ADDITIONAL BEDROOM
• LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Virtual tour available (external link)
• Financial info: Listing status: Active; List price: $331,290

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces; 3‑car garage
• Home design: Meridian plan (new construction plan); Single‑family residence (Plan)
• Exterior features: Located at 12025 Prosperity Lakes Blvd, Parrish FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area of 2366

🏗️ New construction. The $333,290 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $390,390.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $333k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($323k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $292,021 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.29%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $390,390
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11562 Violet Jasper Dr	0.27mi	3/3.0	2,366 (0%)	1mo	$368,000	$156	86
12035 Violet Jasper Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5	2,350 (-1%)	2mo	$405,900	$173	73
11854 Sparkling Topaz Cv	0.37mi	3/3.0	2,366 (0%)	12mo	$401,290	$170	73
12208 Violet Jasper Dr	0.26mi	3/3.0	2,599 (+10%)	1mo	$405,000	$156	71
12010 Violet Jasper Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,350 (-1%)	2mo	$510,390	$217	70
11804 Sparkling Topaz Cv	0.48mi	3/3.0	2,366 (0%)	10mo	$360,000	$152	70
11714 Lilac Pearl Ln	0.39mi	3/3.0	2,366 (0%)	15mo	$380,000	$161	69
12055 Violet Jasper Dr	0.43mi	3/3.0	2,611 (+10%)	1mo	$415,000	$159	62
11865 Sparkling Topaz Cv	0.38mi	3/2.5	2,145 (-9%)	13mo	$354,900	$165	54
11845 Sparkling Topaz Cv	0.41mi	3/2.5	2,145 (-9%)	12mo	$359,900	$168	54
11707 Lilac Pearl Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5	2,145 (-9%)	14mo	$340,000	$159	53
11710 Lilac Pearl Ln	0.40mi	3/2.5	2,145 (-9%)	14mo	$354,900	$165	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-96,673
• Equity at exit: $58,208

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-149,136
• Equity at exit: $33,754

Cash invested: $109,309 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,920 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,047
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$488 /mo · $5,856/yr
• Insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $-391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,415

Max offer price $333,822

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,598
• Closing costs: $11,712
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	12d	1	1.01mi
12215 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2584	$3,000	$1.16	16d	1	1.08mi
12067 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,495	$1.22	3d	1	1.21mi
12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,800	$1.30	3d	1	1.28mi
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,250	$1.27	3d	1	1.38mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	3d	1	1.40mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Unit NA Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,689	$1.19	10d	1	1.49mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,789	$1.23	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $333,290 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $333,290 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $332,990 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $332,990 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $332,990 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $332,990 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $332,990 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $332,890 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $332,890 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $332,890 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $332,790 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $331,890 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $331,890 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $331,690 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    price $331,690 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $331,490 Active 39 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,868
• − Property taxes: −$5,856
• − Insurance: −$1,952
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,803
• − Management: −$2,803
• − Depreciation: −$11,357
• Taxable loss: −$11,597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,783
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good foundation and structure, and the HVAC system appears to be in good condition. The property has a good curb appeal and landscaping. Painting the exterior siding and landscaping improvements would be the highest-ROI updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B