N18708 Short Cut Rd · Pembine, WI 54156

$74,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 656 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1950 Fair condition 1.06 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Your Northwoods escape awaits. Tucked among towering pines, this cozy 3 SEASONS cabin offers the ideal basecamp for all the outdoor fun the Northwoods is known for. Charming cabin is set up to where rustic character meets everyday comfort. Enjoy cabin life watching wildlife, morning walks in the woods, playing games at the dining room table, telling stories by the campfire and enjoying the year round recreation this location has to offer. Numerous waterfalls, Lakes, trout streams and public land with-in a few miles. Access the main ATV trail system from your front door. Short jaunt to town for the necessities, entertainment and fabulous restaurants. Start making MEMORIES today!

Key facts

• Trout streams
• Towering pines
• Numerous waterfalls

Tags

• TOWERING PINES
• YEAR ROUND RECREATION
• NUMEROUS WATERFALLS
• TROUT STREAMS
• PUBLIC LAND
• MAIN ATV TRAIL SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Some household items included (refrigerator, microwave, hot plate, furniture and various tools — see listing inclusions); Seller's personal items and unspecified items excluded

Exterior

• Utilities: Shared well; Private septic system; Electric service
• Home design: Single-family, 1-story; Year built: public/assessor record
• Construction: Wood construction
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Garden shed; Over 1 acre to 2 acres lot (approx. 1.06 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Hot plate
• Bedrooms: Main level master bedroom (8 x 8); Main level second bedroom (7 x 8)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat; Window/wall air conditioning (window unit)
• Interior features: Crawl space; Mud room
• Laundry & utility: Electric heating equipment (radiant electric heaters, 240V electric heater); Hearth heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($826 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#728 in WI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Beecher-Dunbar-Pembine School District (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #237 of 426 in WI (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pembine Elementary (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #705 of 1,041 statewide, top 71%, 142 students, 66% FRL); Pembine High (math 5% / reading 34%, grade F, #376 of 483 statewide, top 79%, 93 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 50% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Beecher-Dunbar-Pembine School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 145 units permitted in Marinette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marinette County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $73,776 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.71%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $49,388
• Equity at exit: $67,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.61×
• Total profit: $138,715
• Equity at exit: $145,514

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 54156

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $826 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $161	+0% $135	+5% $109	+10% $83
Rent	-10% $70	-5% $102	+0% $135	+5% $167	+10% $200
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $154	base $135	+0.5pp $115	+1.0pp $96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $74,900 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $74,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $74,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-28
    listed $74,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,910
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$793
• − Management: −$793
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $452
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$108
• After-tax cash flow: $1,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This cabin has potential for significant value increase with moderate renovations, including updating the kitchen and bathroom, and replacing the flooring.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Older cabinets with some wear and tear, but not in need of immediate replacement.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Outdated fixtures that could be replaced with modern ones to improve the appearance and functionality.
• Moderate Flooring — Carpeted flooring that may need to be replaced or refreshed to improve the overall appearance.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New kitchen cabinets and countertops — Updating the kitchen with new cabinets and countertops can significantly improve the home's resale value.
• Resale Modern bathroom fixtures — Replacing outdated bathroom fixtures with modern ones can improve the home's resale value.
• Resale New flooring — Updating the flooring can improve the home's resale value and make it more appealing to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Older cabinets with some wear and tear, but not in need of immediate replacement.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Outdated fixtures that could be replaced with modern ones to improve the appearance and functionality.	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · Carpeted flooring that may need to be replaced or refreshed to improve the overall appearance.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$4,000–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New kitchen cabinets and countertops — Updating the kitchen with new cabinets and countertops can significantly improve the home's resale value. ↑
• Resale Modern bathroom fixtures — Replacing outdated bathroom fixtures with modern ones can improve the home's resale value. ↑
• Resale New flooring — Updating the flooring can improve the home's resale value and make it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beecher-Dunbar-Pembine School District
• NCES district ID: 5511550
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,275
• Composite: 37.67/100
• National rank: #8792
• State rank: #237 of 426 in WI

Livability — Pembine

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #728
• US rank: #20311

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,514

Population outlook (Marinette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,716 people
• By 2030: 37,015 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 32,824 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 28,502 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 20,562 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 15,072 · -61.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marinette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.4% · R 68.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.9pp toward R · 2008: 6.9pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+34.5 2016: R+33.8 2012: R+3.6 2008: D+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.31%
• Current HPI: 301.2889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $74,900 METROMLS