222 Hickman Creek Rd · Dover, TN 37178

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 118 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1985 0.71 ac lot ↓ 47% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Mobile Home just minuets to the Lake Discover this cozy 2-BR, 1-bath mobile home nestled in a desirable location. The kitchen features an island and open concept design, perfect for entertaining. Situated on a level 0.7-acre lot, the property offers plenty of space, including an outbuilding and a carport for your convenience. Enjoy the proximity to a public boat ramp & LBL with in minutes , making this home ideal for outdoor enthusiasts. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway or a permanent residence, this property has it all. Great investment opportunity for rental. Property is unrestricted.

Key facts

• Outbuilding
• Level lot
• Carport

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• LEVEL LOT
• OUTBUILDING
• CARPORT
• PUBLIC BOAT RAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $72k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $63k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $63k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#98 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Stewart County (rural): math 36% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #30 of 139 in TN (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dover Elementary (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #226 of 952 statewide, top 24%, 495 students, 0% FRL); Stewart County Middle School (math 41% / reading 30%, grade F, #64 of 333 statewide, top 19%, 448 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Stewart County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Stewart County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,686 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.65%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $7,304
• Equity at exit: $41,334

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $30,732
• Equity at exit: $66,236

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37178

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$132
• Net cashflow: $-92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $71,659

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-33	-5% $-63	+0% $-92	+5% $-122	+10% $-151
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-117	+0% $-92	+5% $-67	+10% $-43
Rate	-1.0pp $-49	-0.5pp $-71	base $-92	+0.5pp $-114	+1.0pp $-137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2025-09-29
   soldstatus $80,000 Closed 625-char remark

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   Charming Mobile Home just minuets to the Lake Discover this cozy 2-BR, 1-bath mobile home nestled in a desirable location. The kitchen features an island and open concept design, perfect for entertaining. Situated on a level 0.7-acre lot, the property offers plenty of space, including an outbuilding and a carport for your convenience. Enjoy the proximity to a public boat ramp & LBL with in minutes , making this home ideal for outdoor enthusiasts. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway or a permanent residence, this property has it all. Great investment opportunity for rental. Property is unrestricted.

2. 2025-09-20
   status Pending
3. 2025-09-19
   status Pending 625-char remark

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   Charming Mobile Home just minuets to the Lake Discover this cozy 2-BR, 1-bath mobile home nestled in a desirable location. The kitchen features an island and open concept design, perfect for entertaining. Situated on a level 0.7-acre lot, the property offers plenty of space, including an outbuilding and a carport for your convenience. Enjoy the proximity to a public boat ramp & LBL with in minutes , making this home ideal for outdoor enthusiasts. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway or a permanent residence, this property has it all. Great investment opportunity for rental. Property is unrestricted.

4. 2025-08-28
   price $85,000

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   Charming Mobile Home just minuets to the Lake Discover this cozy 2-BR, 1-bath mobile home nestled in a desirable location. The kitchen features an island and open concept design, perfect for entertaining. Situated on a level 0.7-acre lot, the property offers plenty of space, including an outbuilding and a carport for your convenience. Enjoy the proximity to a public boat ramp & LBL with in minutes , making this home ideal for outdoor enthusiasts. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway or a permanent residence, this property has it all. Great investment opportunity for rental. Property is unrestricted.

5. 2025-08-28
   price $85,000 625-char remark

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   Charming Mobile Home just minuets to the Lake Discover this cozy 2-BR, 1-bath mobile home nestled in a desirable location. The kitchen features an island and open concept design, perfect for entertaining. Situated on a level 0.7-acre lot, the property offers plenty of space, including an outbuilding and a carport for your convenience. Enjoy the proximity to a public boat ramp & LBL with in minutes , making this home ideal for outdoor enthusiasts. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway or a permanent residence, this property has it all. Great investment opportunity for rental. Property is unrestricted.

6. 2025-08-07
   price $94,900

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   Charming Mobile Home just minuets to the Lake Discover this cozy 2-BR, 1-bath mobile home nestled in a desirable location. The kitchen features an island and open concept design, perfect for entertaining. Situated on a level 0.7-acre lot, the property offers plenty of space, including an outbuilding and a carport for your convenience. Enjoy the proximity to a public boat ramp & LBL with in minutes , making this home ideal for outdoor enthusiasts. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway or a permanent residence, this property has it all. Great investment opportunity for rental. Property is unrestricted.

7. 2025-08-07
   price $94,900 625-char remark

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   Charming Mobile Home just minuets to the Lake Discover this cozy 2-BR, 1-bath mobile home nestled in a desirable location. The kitchen features an island and open concept design, perfect for entertaining. Situated on a level 0.7-acre lot, the property offers plenty of space, including an outbuilding and a carport for your convenience. Enjoy the proximity to a public boat ramp & LBL with in minutes , making this home ideal for outdoor enthusiasts. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway or a permanent residence, this property has it all. Great investment opportunity for rental. Property is unrestricted.

8. 2025-05-24
   listed $99,900 Active
9. 2025-05-21
   listed $99,900 Active 625-char remark

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   Charming Mobile Home just minuets to the Lake Discover this cozy 2-BR, 1-bath mobile home nestled in a desirable location. The kitchen features an island and open concept design, perfect for entertaining. Situated on a level 0.7-acre lot, the property offers plenty of space, including an outbuilding and a carport for your convenience. Enjoy the proximity to a public boat ramp & LBL with in minutes , making this home ideal for outdoor enthusiasts. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway or a permanent residence, this property has it all. Great investment opportunity for rental. Property is unrestricted.

10. 2025-05-19
    historical $99,900 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (625 chars)

    Charming Mobile Home just minuets to the Lake Discover this cozy 2-BR, 1-bath mobile home nestled in a desirable location. The kitchen features an island and open concept design, perfect for entertaining. Situated on a level 0.7-acre lot, the property offers plenty of space, including an outbuilding and a carport for your convenience. Enjoy the proximity to a public boat ramp & LBL with in minutes , making this home ideal for outdoor enthusiasts. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway or a permanent residence, this property has it all. Great investment opportunity for rental. Property is unrestricted.

11. 2025-02-14
    historical
12. 2024-09-30
    price $140,000
13. 2024-09-26
    price $140,000
14. 2024-08-30
    listed $150,000 Active
15. 2024-08-19
    listed $150,000 Active
16. 2024-08-15
    historical $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $7,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$602
• − Management: −$602
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable loss: −$2,615
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$628
• After-tax cash flow: $-479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stewart County
• NCES district ID: 4703960
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,035
• Composite: 29.92/100
• National rank: #6383
• State rank: #30 of 139 in TN

Livability — Dover

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #10364

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,027

Population outlook (Stewart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,019 people
• By 2030: 12,780 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 12,152 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 11,484 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 10,249 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 9,338 · -28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Stewart

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.9) · D 17.5% · R 81.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -55.1pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.9 2020: R+59.0 2016: R+50.0 2012: R+17.5 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Current HPI: 336.4553
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-46.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-29 Sold (MLS) $80,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-20 Pending — TVAR
• 2025-09-19 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $85,000 TVAR
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $85,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $94,900 TVAR
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $94,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-24 Listed $99,900 TVAR
• 2025-05-21 Listed $99,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-19 Coming Soon $99,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-14 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-30 Price Changed $140,000 TVAR
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $140,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-30 Listed $150,000 TVAR
• 2024-08-19 Listed $150,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-15 Coming Soon $150,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2021): $57 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.