216 Smith Rd · Stamford, NY 12167

$220,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,240 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1986 1.72 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in the woods on 1.72 acre private acres. This 4 bedroom 3 bath home holds rustic charm created by the owners grandparents. The open concept kitchen, living and dining area creates a bright and inviting space for entertaining or everyday living. The floor to ceiling windows give so much natural light to watch the wildlife roam out your front windows. The home offers dedicated office and storage room perfect for remote work or hobbies. The finished walkout basement features a spacious rec-room for entertaining or additional living space. The full attic offers exciting potential expansion or customization. Surrounded by nature, sitting on the full front porch would provide so much peace for your morning coffee or evening relaxing.

Key facts

• Private acres
• Open concept kitchen
• Dedicated office

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• FLOOR TO CEILING WINDOWS
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• FINISHED WALKOUT BASEMENT
• FULL ATTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $915 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $213k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 5.3% in Stamford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#574 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Stamford Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #675 of 755 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.

Recommended offer $213,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.83%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $111,819
• Equity at exit: $127,447

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $286,869
• Equity at exit: $222,287

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12167

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$525 /mo · $6,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$714
• Net cashflow: $915

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,241

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,040	-5% $978	+0% $915	+5% $853	+10% $791
Rent	-10% $647	-5% $781	+0% $915	+5% $1,050	+10% $1,184
Rate	-1.0pp $1,026	-0.5pp $971	base $915	+0.5pp $858	+1.0pp $800

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   Tucked away in the woods on 1.72 acre private acres. This 4 bedroom 3 bath home holds rustic charm created by the owners grandparents. The open concept kitchen, living and dining area creates a bright and inviting space for entertaining or everyday living. The floor to ceiling windows give so much natural light to watch the wildlife roam out your front windows. The home offers dedicated office and storage room perfect for remote work or hobbies. The finished walkout basement features a spacious rec-room for entertaining or additional living space. The full attic offers exciting potential expansion or customization. Surrounded by nature, sitting on the full front porch would provide so much peace for your morning coffee or evening relaxing.

2. 2026-04-06
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   Tucked away in the woods on 1.72 acre private acres. This 4 bedroom 3 bath home holds rustic charm created by the owners grandparents. The open concept kitchen, living and dining area creates a bright and inviting space for entertaining or everyday living. The floor to ceiling windows give so much natural light to watch the wildlife roam out your front windows. The home offers dedicated office and storage room perfect for remote work or hobbies. The finished walkout basement features a spacious rec-room for entertaining or additional living space. The full attic offers exciting potential expansion or customization. Surrounded by nature, sitting on the full front porch would provide so much peace for your morning coffee or evening relaxing.

3. 2026-03-10
   listed $220,000 Active 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   Tucked away in the woods on 1.72 acre private acres. This 4 bedroom 3 bath home holds rustic charm created by the owners grandparents. The open concept kitchen, living and dining area creates a bright and inviting space for entertaining or everyday living. The floor to ceiling windows give so much natural light to watch the wildlife roam out your front windows. The home offers dedicated office and storage room perfect for remote work or hobbies. The finished walkout basement features a spacious rec-room for entertaining or additional living space. The full attic offers exciting potential expansion or customization. Surrounded by nature, sitting on the full front porch would provide so much peace for your morning coffee or evening relaxing.

4. 2026-02-16
   listed $220,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,300 · $525/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,300 · $525/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$6,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,264
• − Management: −$3,264
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $8,145
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,955
• After-tax cash flow: $9,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stamford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,968
• Composite: 34.29/100
• National rank: #10231
• State rank: #675 of 755 in NY

Livability — Stamford

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #574
• US rank: #10332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,257

Population outlook (Delaware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,668 people
• By 2030: 40,337 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 35,514 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 31,265 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -42.7%
• By 2100: 19,529 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Delaware

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 40.1% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+9.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Current HPI: 368.4492
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-06 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $220,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $220,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,300 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.