3106 Kay St · Houston, TX 77093

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 904 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1950 5,000 sqft lot $127/sqft · 30% below area Est $165k · 30% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a very good property with a lot of potential. It has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. It has plenty of space to expand and make beautiful upgrades. It's ready for a new owner.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 70 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.22%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,707
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -30.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7806 Magna St	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-4%)	12mo	$82,500	$95	57
3607 Penn St	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	996 (+10%)	5mo	$115,000	$115	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,085
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $21,795
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77093

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,217 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,723/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7506 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	772	$1,160	$1.50	3d	12	0.26mi
7320 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,176	$1.26	1d	5	0.33mi
7301 Jensen Dr Apt 12 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$930	$1.06	7d	1	0.42mi
7301 Jensen Dr Unit 50 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$999	$1.14	7d	1	0.42mi
4422 Weaver Rd Apt 707 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	765	$1,110	$1.45	43d	1	0.87mi
3107 Melbourne St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	956	$1,500	$1.57	43d	1	0.88mi
4442 Weaver Rd Unit 707 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	765	$1,110	$1.45	24d	1	0.94mi
6869 Arto St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	16d	6	0.95mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 17 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	24d	1	1.04mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	5d	1	1.04mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 16 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	43d	1	1.04mi
2110 Melbourne St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	24d	1	1.07mi
4679 Weaver Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$990	$1.16	43d	1	1.07mi
2530 Aldon St Unit 2530B Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,300	$1.18	43d	1	1.36mi
6918 Irvington Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	43d	1	1.41mi
2006 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1035	$1,075	$1.04	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Pending 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Pending 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $115,000 Pending 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $115,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $115,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-05-06
    price $115,000 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    This is a very good property with a lot of potential. It has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. It has plenty of space to expand and make beautiful upgrades. It's ready for a new owner.

12. 2026-04-08
    listed $125,000 Active 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    This is a very good property with a lot of potential. It has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. It has plenty of space to expand and make beautiful upgrades. It's ready for a new owner.

13. 1996-01-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,723 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$381/yr (+$32/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,723
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,169
• − Management: −$1,169
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $184
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$44
• After-tax cash flow: $1,960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,407
• Household income: $46,766
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1815.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 24% Black 11% White 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 70%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 70%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.53%
• Current HPI: 277.4914
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 1996-01-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,723 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.