5118 River Birch Ave · Holiday, FL 34690

$50,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1971 4,300 sqft lot Est $50k · at est. $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1 Bed 1 Bath, FL 34690

Key facts

• 4,300 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.1 acre; Asphalt road access
• HOA & community: HOA required; $200 annual fee ($16.67 monthly); Community clubhouse; Community pool; Senior community; Dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces north; Entry level: One
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Roof over; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Screened side porch; Awning(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Aluminum-framed windows; Awning(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $655 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.0% vs local median 4.7% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $50k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.14%
• DSCR: 3.50
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $49,920
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2453 Santiago Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	660 (+6%)	2mo	$53,000	$80	81
5200 Darlington Rd	0.18mi	2/2.0	672 (+8%)	18mo	$86,600	$129	63
1834 Sparkle Ln	0.48mi	2/1.5	600 (-4%)	9mo	$25,000	$42	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $29,750
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $64,699
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,337 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,230/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $655

Break-even live

Break-even rent $508

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2122 Ranchita Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	648	$1,399	$2.16	24d	1	0.49mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,200	$1.69	5d	1	0.56mi
5409 Oceanic Rd Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,225	$1.96	24d	1	0.64mi
5419 Oceanic Rd Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,200	$1.92	13d	1	0.65mi
5441 Oceanic Rd Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	24d	1	0.67mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	15d	1	0.75mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit G Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	24d	1	0.75mi
4318 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	24d	1	0.78mi
2133 Melody Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	510	$1,078	$2.11	15d	1	0.83mi
5633 Golden Nugget Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,175	$1.96	24d	1	0.91mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	3d	9	0.91mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	3d	13	0.93mi
5603 Cheyenne Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	525	$1,100	$2.10	24d	1	0.97mi
5709 Silver Spur Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	727	$1,095	$1.51	15d	1	0.99mi
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	24d	1	1.00mi
1525 Swordbill Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,090	$1.56	20d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $50,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-04-20
    listed $50,000 Active
15. 2025-09-12
    soldstatus $10,000 Closed 23-char remark

    Show marketing remark (23 chars)

    1 Bed 1 Bath, FL 34690

16. 2025-09-05
    status Pending 23-char remark

    Show marketing remark (23 chars)

    1 Bed 1 Bath, FL 34690

17. 2025-04-08
    listed $72,000 Active 23-char remark

    Show marketing remark (23 chars)

    1 Bed 1 Bath, FL 34690

18. 2008-09-08
    soldstatus $36,000 536-char remark

    Show marketing remark (536 chars)

    Cute and cozy. This home has been lovingly cared for by the owner. Being sold totally furnished. Just bring your personal items. Don't let the size fool you; ;; must see; ;; very roomly layout. Main home is central heat and air; Large Florida room has a A. C. also and is not counted in the total square foot space. Immaculate. Pick oranges from your own tree. Home is located in the active over 55 community of Buena Vista Manor. Pets allowed!! NO FLOOD OR WIND INSURANCENEEDED ON THIS SIDE OF US19. OWNER FINANCING MAY BE AVAILABLE.

19. 2008-04-15
    listed $39,900 536-char remark

    Show marketing remark (536 chars)

    Cute and cozy. This home has been lovingly cared for by the owner. Being sold totally furnished. Just bring your personal items. Don't let the size fool you; ;; must see; ;; very roomly layout. Main home is central heat and air; Large Florida room has a A. C. also and is not counted in the total square foot space. Immaculate. Pick oranges from your own tree. Home is located in the active over 55 community of Buena Vista Manor. Pets allowed!! NO FLOOD OR WIND INSURANCENEEDED ON THIS SIDE OF US19. OWNER FINANCING MAY BE AVAILABLE.

20. 1995-02-14
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$1,230
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,284
• − Management: −$1,284
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $7,554
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,813
• After-tax cash flow: $6,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+194.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Sold (MLS) $10,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-08 Listed $72,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-08 Sold (MLS) $36,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-15 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,230 · +24.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.