23419 Bayleaf Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$229,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1978 7,200 sqft lot Est $216k · 6% over $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice Split level home. Laminate Wood-floors throughout the home, Split Floor-plan with Master Down, Master Bathroom with Whirlpool tub and separate shower. Downstairs entertainment area with fireplace. Split floor-plan. Deck area terrace. Crown Molding, Board, Built-ins, Ceiling Fans, 2'' Blinds, Designer Paint inside and out, ample Kitchen with plenty of storage space. Oversize garage. Backyard with 2 sitting areas. Seller is motivated.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Large deck
• Primary suite

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• LARGE DECK
• COVERED PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-48/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (0.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $226k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pearl M Hirsch El (math 15% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,470 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 647 students, 86% FRL); Twin Creeks Middle (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 973 students, 83% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 603 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,451 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,888
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2351 Loyanne Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,125 (+1%)	8mo	$190,000	$89	72
22811 Briarcreek Blvd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (-6%)	21mo	$285,000	$145	39
23710 Prairie Bird Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,789 (-15%)	8mo	$185,000	$103	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-44,243
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-64,834
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 603
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,370 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$539 /mo · $6,466/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,375

Max offer price $229,189

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $61	+0% $-4	+5% $-69	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $-191	-5% $-98	+0% $-4	+5% $90	+10% $183
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $54	base $-4	+0.5pp $-64	+1.0pp $-124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2911 Cypress Island Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2240	$1,961	$0.88	0d	1	1.17mi
2802 Mesquite Ridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1902	$2,045	$1.08	14d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-13
   listed $229,900 Active
4. 2017-07-10
   soldstatus Sold 441-char remark

   Show marketing remark (441 chars)

   Nice Split level home. Laminate Wood-floors throughout the home, Split Floor-plan with Master Down, Master Bathroom with Whirlpool tub and separate shower. Downstairs entertainment area with fireplace. Split floor-plan. Deck area terrace. Crown Molding, Board, Built-ins, Ceiling Fans, 2'' Blinds, Designer Paint inside and out, ample Kitchen with plenty of storage space. Oversize garage. Backyard with 2 sitting areas. Seller is motivated.

5. 2017-05-10
   soldstatus
6. 2017-04-18
   status Pending 441-char remark

   Show marketing remark (441 chars)

   Nice Split level home. Laminate Wood-floors throughout the home, Split Floor-plan with Master Down, Master Bathroom with Whirlpool tub and separate shower. Downstairs entertainment area with fireplace. Split floor-plan. Deck area terrace. Crown Molding, Board, Built-ins, Ceiling Fans, 2'' Blinds, Designer Paint inside and out, ample Kitchen with plenty of storage space. Oversize garage. Backyard with 2 sitting areas. Seller is motivated.

7. 2017-04-11
   status Option Pending 441-char remark

   Show marketing remark (441 chars)

   Nice Split level home. Laminate Wood-floors throughout the home, Split Floor-plan with Master Down, Master Bathroom with Whirlpool tub and separate shower. Downstairs entertainment area with fireplace. Split floor-plan. Deck area terrace. Crown Molding, Board, Built-ins, Ceiling Fans, 2'' Blinds, Designer Paint inside and out, ample Kitchen with plenty of storage space. Oversize garage. Backyard with 2 sitting areas. Seller is motivated.

8. 2017-02-01
   listed $144,900 Active 441-char remark

   Show marketing remark (441 chars)

   Nice Split level home. Laminate Wood-floors throughout the home, Split Floor-plan with Master Down, Master Bathroom with Whirlpool tub and separate shower. Downstairs entertainment area with fireplace. Split floor-plan. Deck area terrace. Crown Molding, Board, Built-ins, Ceiling Fans, 2'' Blinds, Designer Paint inside and out, ample Kitchen with plenty of storage space. Oversize garage. Backyard with 2 sitting areas. Seller is motivated.

9. 2014-04-07
   soldstatus
10. 2014-04-04
    soldstatus Sold 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Well Maintained 4 Bedroom 2 bathroom home! This property Boast with Ownership PRIDE! Laminate Woodfloors throughout the home, Split Floorplan with Master Down, Remodeled Master Bathroom w/ OVERSIZED Whirlpool tub! Great Den with lots of Natural light! Secondary Bedroom are good in size. Crown Molding, Bead Board, Built-ins, Ceiling Fans, 2'' Blinds, Recent Paint inside and out, Kitchen Countertops and sink, HVAC/Heater, and Fence! Awesome Backyard with 2 sitting areas and Storage Shed!

11. 2014-03-17
    status Pending, Continue to Show 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Well Maintained 4 Bedroom 2 bathroom home! This property Boast with Ownership PRIDE! Laminate Woodfloors throughout the home, Split Floorplan with Master Down, Remodeled Master Bathroom w/ OVERSIZED Whirlpool tub! Great Den with lots of Natural light! Secondary Bedroom are good in size. Crown Molding, Bead Board, Built-ins, Ceiling Fans, 2'' Blinds, Recent Paint inside and out, Kitchen Countertops and sink, HVAC/Heater, and Fence! Awesome Backyard with 2 sitting areas and Storage Shed!

12. 2014-03-03
    status Option Pending 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Well Maintained 4 Bedroom 2 bathroom home! This property Boast with Ownership PRIDE! Laminate Woodfloors throughout the home, Split Floorplan with Master Down, Remodeled Master Bathroom w/ OVERSIZED Whirlpool tub! Great Den with lots of Natural light! Secondary Bedroom are good in size. Crown Molding, Bead Board, Built-ins, Ceiling Fans, 2'' Blinds, Recent Paint inside and out, Kitchen Countertops and sink, HVAC/Heater, and Fence! Awesome Backyard with 2 sitting areas and Storage Shed!

13. 2014-02-25
    listed $119,900 Active 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Well Maintained 4 Bedroom 2 bathroom home! This property Boast with Ownership PRIDE! Laminate Woodfloors throughout the home, Split Floorplan with Master Down, Remodeled Master Bathroom w/ OVERSIZED Whirlpool tub! Great Den with lots of Natural light! Secondary Bedroom are good in size. Crown Molding, Bead Board, Built-ins, Ceiling Fans, 2'' Blinds, Recent Paint inside and out, Kitchen Countertops and sink, HVAC/Heater, and Fence! Awesome Backyard with 2 sitting areas and Storage Shed!

14. 2002-05-21
    soldstatus
15. 1988-01-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,466 · $539/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,466 · $539/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$6,466
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,275
• − Management: −$2,275
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$3,725
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$894
• After-tax cash flow: $846/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+91.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2017-07-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-04-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-04-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-02-01 Listed $144,900 HARMLS
• 2014-04-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-04-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-03-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-03-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-02-25 Listed $119,900 HARMLS
• 2002-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,466 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.