88020 Amboy · Twentynine Palms, CA 92277

$85,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 738 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1958 5.00 ac lot $115/sqft · 66% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity! This property is in need of a complete rehab and offers a blank canvas for buyers ready to bring their vision to life. Situated on 5 acres in a beautiful location with amazing views, the setting provides space, privacy, and endless possibilities. Enjoy easy access to a paved highway and a prime location just minutes from Joshua Tree, making this a rare opportunity to restore and reimagine a home surrounded by natural desert beauty.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Amazing views
• 5 acres

Tags

• 5 ACRES
• AMAZING VIEWS
• EASY ACCESS
• PRIME LOCATION
• NATURAL DESERT BEAUTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 4.1% in Twentynine Palms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#622 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, employment D-.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 734 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.95%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,483
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -65.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5045 Lelia Ln	0.41mi	2/1.0 (+1)	748 (+1%)	14mo	$245,000	$328	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $14,554
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $54,638
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92277

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 734
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,255 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,134/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $729

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $464	-5% $439	+0% $415	+5% $391	+10% $367
Rent	-10% $316	-5% $366	+0% $415	+5% $465	+10% $515
Rate	-1.0pp $458	-0.5pp $437	base $415	+0.5pp $393	+1.0pp $371

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-02-09
    listed $85,000 Active 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Investor opportunity! This property is in need of a complete rehab and offers a blank canvas for buyers ready to bring their vision to life. Situated on 5 acres in a beautiful location with amazing views, the setting provides space, privacy, and endless possibilities. Enjoy easy access to a paved highway and a prime location just minutes from Joshua Tree, making this a rare opportunity to restore and reimagine a home surrounded by natural desert beauty.

16. 2025-08-26
    historical
17. 2025-03-31
    price $90,000
18. 2024-08-30
    status Active
19. 2024-08-23
    historical
20. 2024-08-17
    status Active
21. 2024-08-16
    historical
22. 2024-08-09
    listed $100,000 Active
23. 2024-04-24
    listed $100,000 Active
24. 2024-03-31
    historical
25. 2023-07-10
    listed $124,900 Active
26. 2023-07-10
    historical
27. 2023-04-13
    price $124,900
28. 2023-02-28
    price $134,790
29. 2022-10-11
    price $134,800
30. 2022-09-06
    listed $149,900 Active
31. 2021-05-03
    soldstatus $75,000
32. 2010-11-12
    soldstatus $15,000
33. 2010-10-16
    historical
34. 2009-10-05
    historical
35. 2009-09-21
    listed $19,500
36. 2008-10-05
    listed $30,000
37. 2005-07-20
    soldstatus $35,000
38. 2005-04-22
    historical
39. 2005-04-19
    listed $38,500
40. 1985-05-31
    soldstatus $17,000
41. 1980-12-05
    soldstatus $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,134 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,134 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,054
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,134
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,204
• − Management: −$1,204
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,853
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$925
• After-tax cash flow: $4,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Twentynine Palms

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #622
• US rank: #19731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 26,277
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 26,277
• Household income: $60,901
• Rent vs Own: 56.7% rent · 43.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Two or more races 24% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 9% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.15%
• Current HPI: 380.5083
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+529.6% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Listed $85,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-03-31 Price Changed $90,000 CRMLS
• 2024-08-30 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-08-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-08-17 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-08-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-08-09 Listed $100,000 CRMLS
• 2024-04-24 Listed $100,000 CRMLS
• 2024-03-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-07-10 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-07-10 Listed $124,900 CRMLS
• 2023-04-13 Price Changed $124,900 CRMLS
• 2023-02-28 Price Changed $134,790 CRMLS
• 2022-10-11 Price Changed $134,800 CRMLS
• 2022-09-06 Listed $149,900 CRMLS
• 2021-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2010-11-12 Sold (MLS) $15,000 CRMLS
• 2010-10-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-10-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-09-21 Listed $19,500 CRMLS
• 2008-10-05 Listed $30,000 CRMLS
• 2005-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-22 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2005-04-19 Listed $38,500 GPSMLS
• 1985-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records
• 1980-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,134 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.