135 Ponderosa Way #2 · Colfax, CA 95713

$86,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 43 Days on market

Built 1992 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss your chance to live in this all-ages park tucked away in Weimar, just 10 minutes from Auburn and Colfax. Space Rent is only $945/month (buyer to verify with management). You have easy freeway access to ski resorts, hiking trails, the American River and Rollins Lake. This move-in ready manufactured home, built in 1992, offers comfortable living with an open living area, functional kitchen, and two bedrooms, each with its own bathroom. You'll enjoy the peace of mind with a newer roof and carport, along with other many other updates. Spend time in your private yard, or enjoy the park-like setting of the community. Perfect for those looking to downsize or enjoy simple living.

Key facts

• Easy freeway access
• Private yard
• Park-like setting

Tags

• EASY FREEWAY ACCESS
• PRIVATE YARD
• PARK-LIKE SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association; Land lease (monthly) of $945

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Propane; Individual electric meter; Public water; Septic system
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Single wide; Built in 1992
• Construction: Wood skirting; Shingle roof; Manufactured by Skyline
• Exterior features: Backyard; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fans; Wall units; Window units; Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Great room; Dining bar; Laminate countertops; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry hookups; Inside laundry room/area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $844 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 2.5% in Colfax — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#216 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Placer Union High (suburban): math 39% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #98 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $595 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,420 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.07%
• DSCR: 2.87
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $39,865
• Equity at exit: $12,823

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.32×
• Total profit: $104,067
• Equity at exit: $7,436

Cash invested: $24,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95713

• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,821 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$108 /mo · $1,290/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $844

Break-even live

Break-even rent $752

Max offer price $86,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $904	-5% $874	+0% $844	+5% $815	+10% $785
Rent	-10% $700	-5% $772	+0% $844	+5% $916	+10% $988
Rate	-1.0pp $888	-0.5pp $866	base $844	+0.5pp $822	+1.0pp $799

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,500
• Closing costs: $2,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
987 Timber Hills Rd Colfax, CA	3.0	1.0	1124	$2,550	$2.27	2d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $86,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $86,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $86,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $86,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $86,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $86,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $86,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $86,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $86,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $86,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $86,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $86,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $86,000 Active 25 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 41 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,817
• − Property taxes: −$1,290
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,748
• − Management: −$1,748
• − Depreciation: −$2,502
• Taxable income: $9,317
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,236
• After-tax cash flow: $7,895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value
• Both Replace countertops — Modern countertops increase value
• Both Replace appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Modern countertops increase value ↑
• Both Replace appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Placer Union High
• NCES district ID: 0630750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,119
• Composite: 49.04/100
• National rank: #2060
• State rank: #98 of 517 in CA

Livability — Colfax

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #6827

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Placer County · 390,510 people
• City population: 9,448
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 9,448
• Household income: $87,839
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Placer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 422,709 people
• By 2030: 444,249 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 480,192 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 506,390 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 550,219 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 547,760 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Placer

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.3% · R 52.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -11.3pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.7 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+11.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.00%
• Current HPI: 238.8248
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B