7150 Lake Tahoe · Brownsville, TX 78520

$319,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,902 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,387 sqft lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand New Home, Features 4 bedrooms 3.5 Bathrooms, corner Lot, experience indoor-outdoor living with a stunning interior courtyard. lot of storage.

Key facts

• Corner lot
• 6,387 sq ft lot
• Built 2026

Tags

• INDOOR-OUTDOOR LIVING
• STUNNING INTERIOR COURTYARD
• CORNER LOT

🏗️ New construction. The $319,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $311,928.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $319k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-621/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Los Fresnos CISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #444 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Los Fresnos El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 561 students, 76% FRL); Resaca Middle (math 29% / reading 44%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 857 students, 77% FRL); Los Fresnos H S (math 41% / reading 55%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 3,272 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 43% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.4%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,663/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 1800% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $266,315 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.71%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $311,928
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7121 Lake Tahoe	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,927 (+1%)	20mo	$316,000	$164	74
7246 Lake Shasta	0.05mi	4/3.5	2,027 (+7%)	18mo	$329,000	$162	72
7417 Lake Havasu	0.13mi	4/3.5	2,090 (+10%)	13mo	$329,900	$158	67
8830 Wentz Lk	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,847 (-3%)	0mo	$305,000	$165	66
8879 Wentz Lk	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,917 (+1%)	6mo	$309,000	$161	63
7122 Lake Tahoe	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,750 (-8%)	13mo	$289,000	$165	63
8648 Verbena Ln	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,796 (-6%)	18mo	$275,000	$153	62
7026 Lake Almanor Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,757 (-8%)	15mo	$305,900	$174	62
8723 Ashford	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,815 (-5%)	8mo	$289,000	$159	59
7423 Converse Lk	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,148 (+13%)	10mo	$365,000	$170	56
8827 Wentz Lk	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,066 (+9%)	9mo	$336,000	$163	50
8867 Wentz Lk	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,835 (-4%)	18mo	$320,000	$174	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-39,729
• Equity at exit: $46,509

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $25,379
• Equity at exit: $26,970

Cash invested: $87,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78520

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.4%
• Active inventory: 348
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,663 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,636
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$390 /mo · $4,679/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,729

Max offer price $304,436

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $56	+0% $-52	+5% $-160	+10% $-267
Rent	-10% $-262	-5% $-157	+0% $-52	+5% $53	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $28	base $-52	+0.5pp $-133	+1.0pp $-215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,982
• Closing costs: $9,358
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7425 Lake Havasu Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,700	$1.51	23d	1	0.08mi
7425 Lake Havasu Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,700	$1.51	15d	1	0.08mi
7072 Lago Vista Blvd Brownsville, TX	3.0	3.0	2473	$3,200	$1.29	23d	1	0.55mi
7180 Dominica Dr Brownsville, TX	4.0	4.0	2287	$3,400	$1.49	23d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-02
   price $319,000
3. 2026-03-02
   listed $329,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,473
• − Property taxes: −$4,679
• − Insurance: −$1,560
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,557
• − Management: −$2,557
• − Depreciation: −$9,074
• Taxable loss: −$5,941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,426
• After-tax cash flow: $805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand new home is move-in ready with modern finishes and a fresh exterior. It offers excellent curb appeal and is ideal for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and rental appeal
• Both Adding a smart home system — Enhances convenience and value
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and rental appeal ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Enhances convenience and value ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Fresnos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4828290
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,586
• Composite: 32.92/100
• National rank: #5601
• State rank: #444 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 64,740
• Household income: $50,116
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1800.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 44% White 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 88%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.91%
• Current HPI: 214.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.41%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $319,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $329,000 RGVMLS