3184 Stringfellow Rd · St. James City, FL 33956

$409,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,367 sqft · Condo public records · 162 Days on market

Built 2001

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your beautiful GULF ACCESS home with Private GUEST SUITE! Slide open the glass doors & enjoy the breezes and sunsets of the GULF! The main home makes a grand statement with vaulted ceiling, an abundance of windows and natural light. New Stainless appliances in the CHEFS Kitchen. The master suite offers sliding glass doors to the screened lanai, a large walk in shower and a walk in closet. An expansive screened lanai offers room for relaxing, dining and entertaining . The private attached two car garage includes plenty of room for bicycles, golf carts and more. The lower guest suite has a private entrance with kitchen and full bath. This piece of paradise sits on the can

Key facts

• Boat lift
• Canal with boat dock
• Gulf access

Tags

• GULF ACCESS
• PRIVATE GUEST SUITE
• CHEFS KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE SCREENED LANAI
• CANAL WITH BOAT DOCK
• BOAT LIFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Community has 4 units; Boat facilities; Non-gated community; No association fee indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Paved parking; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors; Security/high impact doors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable not available
• Home design: 2 stories; Entry level: 1; West-facing; Has view; Waterfront with canal access to the Gulf; East exposure
• Construction: Built with block, concrete, stucco and vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Security/high impact doors; Room for pool; Storage; Water feature; Balcony; Lanai; Porch; Screened porch; Apartment (separate structure); Smoke detector(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dryer; Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Freezer; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Self-cleaning oven
• Bedrooms: Multiple primary suites
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Impact glass windows; Wheelchair access; Breakfast bar; Separate/formal dining room; Kitchen island; Living/dining room; Multiple primary suites; Pantry; Shower only with separate shower; Vaulted ceilings; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $410k).
• Recommended offer: $360k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($360k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $240k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $317k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $360,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.29%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-42,856
• Equity at exit: $61,058

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-6,377
• Equity at exit: $35,406

Cash invested: $114,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,413 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,147
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,521/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$927
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,951

Max offer price $409,500

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,375
• Closing costs: $12,285
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2951 York Rd Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	23d	1	0.22mi
3103 Harpoon Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$3,000	$2.74	23d	1	0.34mi
4011 Galt Island Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,000	$2.72	23d	1	0.55mi
3864 Royal Palm Dr Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	23d	1	0.60mi
3811 Emerald Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,500	$3.67	23d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   price $409,500
3. 2026-03-20
   price $489,500
4. 2026-02-21
   price $575,900
5. 2026-01-31
   price $625,000
6. 2025-11-21
   listed $649,800 Active
7. 2022-03-10
   status Pending
8. 2022-03-10
   historical
9. 2022-02-04
   listed $749,990 Active
10. 2022-01-31
    historical
11. 2022-01-13
    listed $784,900 Active
12. 2020-06-26
    soldstatus $317,000
13. 2019-03-01
    historical
14. 2019-02-16
    price $310,000
15. 2019-01-04
    listed $339,900 Active
16. 2018-07-10
    historical
17. 2018-06-26
    price $359,900
18. 2018-05-04
    listed $369,500 Active
19. 2016-03-15
    soldstatus $350,000
20. 2004-08-02
    soldstatus $329,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,521 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,521 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,938
• − Property taxes: −$4,521
• − Insurance: −$7,166
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,237
• − Management: −$4,237
• − Depreciation: −$11,913
• Taxable loss: −$2,052
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$493
• After-tax cash flow: $4,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+24.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $409,500 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $489,500 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $575,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $625,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $649,800 FORTMLS
• 2022-03-10 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2022-03-10 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2022-02-04 Listed $749,990 FORTMLS
• 2022-01-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-13 Listed $784,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $317,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-01 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2019-02-16 Price Changed $310,000 FORTMLS
• 2019-01-04 Listed $339,900 FORTMLS
• 2018-07-10 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2018-06-26 Price Changed $359,900 FORTMLS
• 2018-05-04 Listed $369,500 FORTMLS
• 2016-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-02 Sold (MLS) $329,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,521 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.