8054 S Bending Birch Cir · Knik River, AK 99645

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Other public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2002 0.98 ac lot ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Two lots totaling close to 1 acre with approx. 1400 sf fixer up cabin. Located at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac near the base of Pioneer Peak. Eklutna Tail Race, Jim Creek Recreational Area and many hiking trails are just a few minutes away! Close drive to Palmer or Wasilla and excellent commute location to Anchorage. Adjoining approx. 4 acre lot, 10720 S Old Glenn Hwy also available for sale.

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Eklutna tail race
• Near pioneer peak

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• NEAR PIONEER PEAK
• EKLUTNA TAIL RACE
• JIM CREEK RECREATIONAL AREA
• HIKING TRAILS
• COMMUTE LOCATION TO ANCHORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank sewage
• Home design: Residential property; Not attached to another unit; Built in 2002; Wood frame construction; Other type of foundation; Gravel road access
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Metal roof; Foundation: other; Year built: 2002
• Exterior features: Covenant/restriction on the property; Serviced by a road service area; Metal roof; Waterfront property

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Bedroom and bathroom on the main level; Telephone service; Vaulted ceilings; Wood stove

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#243 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Butte Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #61 of 156 statewide, top 41%, 274 students, 43% FRL); Palmer Middle School (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #24 of 36 statewide, top 69%, 594 students, 46% FRL); Palmer High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #28 of 61 statewide, top 50%, 760 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 377 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.43%
• DSCR: 3.64
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $61,329
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.31×
• Total profit: $150,187
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99645

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 377
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,224 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,161/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $1,179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $731

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,227	-5% $1,203	+0% $1,179	+5% $1,155	+10% $1,131
Rent	-10% $1,003	-5% $1,091	+0% $1,179	+5% $1,267	+10% $1,354
Rate	-1.0pp $1,222	-0.5pp $1,200	base $1,179	+0.5pp $1,157	+1.0pp $1,134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   remarks 397-char remark
5. 2026-06-10
   listed $85,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,161 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,161 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,161
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,135
• − Management: −$2,135
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $13,594
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,263
• After-tax cash flow: $10,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Knik River

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #25626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime F Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knik River, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 32,103
• Household income: $100,455
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 539.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.20%
• Current HPI: 210.5448
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-34.6% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $85,000 AKMLS
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $235,000 AKMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $258,000 AKMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $260,000 AKMLS
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $265,000 AKMLS
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $271,000 AKMLS
• 2025-02-02 Price Changed $273,000 AKMLS
• 2024-10-16 Price Changed $276,000 AKMLS
• 2024-09-21 Listed $279,000 AKMLS
• 2024-02-12 Listed $99,000 AKMLS
• 2023-12-12 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2023-11-29 Pending — AKMLS
• 2023-11-23 Price Changed $104,500 AKMLS
• 2023-09-08 Listed $110,000 AKMLS
• 2021-08-07 Pending — AKMLS
• 2021-07-08 Listed $50,000 AKMLS
• 2020-10-01 Pending — AKMLS
• 2020-09-14 Price Changed $55,000 AKMLS
• 2020-08-29 Price Changed $65,000 AKMLS
• 2020-08-06 Listed $75,000 AKMLS
• 2006-05-31 Listed $80,000 AKMLS
• 2005-01-17 Listed $130,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,161 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.