Kimbell Plan · Josephine, TX 75173

$284,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Designed for modern living with a graceful layout and smart flexibility, the Kimbell is a single-story home that lives large. The open kitchen, casual dining area, and great room come together in a wide, welcoming space that encourages connection - perfect for entertaining friends, sharing everyday meals, or simply relaxing at home. From the heart of the home, views extend to the covered patio, inviting outdoor living into your daily routine. The owner's suite is a true sanctuary, offering a serene retreat tucked away at the rear of the home. A spacious bath and generous walk-in closet complete the suite, with choices to personalize the space even further for added luxury.

Key facts

• Casual dining area
• Covered patio
• Great room

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• CASUAL DINING AREA
• GREAT ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• SPACIOUS BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $284,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $342,322.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-691 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 485 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$59k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,948 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.65%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,322
• List price: $284,990
• Delta: -16.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21639 County Road 850	0.59mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,980 (+1%)	1mo	$515,000	$260	60
201 East St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,860 (-5%)	12mo	$374,999	$202	53
101 Monarch	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,876 (-4%)	23mo	$372,700	$199	48
204 Swallowtail Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-11%)	20mo	$325,000	$186	34
315 East St	0.75mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,085 (+6%)	20mo	$339,900	$163	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $142,439
• Equity at exit: $308,390

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $454,149
• Equity at exit: $665,055

Cash invested: $95,850 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 78 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 33.4 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $287,990 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 47% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 485
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,119 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,795
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$428 /mo · $5,135/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-691

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,995

Max offer price $242,288

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-455	-5% $-573	+0% $-691	+5% $-810	+10% $-928
Rent	-10% $-859	-5% $-775	+0% $-691	+5% $-608	+10% $-524
Rate	-1.0pp $-519	-0.5pp $-604	base $-691	+0.5pp $-780	+1.0pp $-870

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,580
• Closing costs: $10,270
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	20d	1	0.22mi
414 Main St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,650	$0.96	1d	1	0.51mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	73d	1	0.74mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	42d	1	0.91mi
716 Mallard Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.5	2119	$2,300	$1.09	0d	1	1.02mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,095	$1.15	0d	1	1.03mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,095	$1.15	21d	1	1.03mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	59d	1	1.12mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	56d	1	1.13mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	3d	1	1.13mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	61d	1	1.19mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	59d	1	1.19mi
805 Martingale Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,300	$1.19	38d	1	1.20mi
1309 Brook LN Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,675	$1.31	0d	1	1.23mi
819 Rustic Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,000	$1.11	32d	1	1.24mi
1117 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	5.0	2.5	1954	$2,095	$1.07	93d	1	1.24mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	93d	1	1.25mi
1128 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,775	$1.24	0d	1	1.26mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,950	$1.24	4d	1	1.28mi
503 Northern Red Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1916	$1,925	$1.00	12d	1	1.29mi
1141 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,725	$1.35	93d	1	1.29mi
505 Lansdowne Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,795	$1.13	1d	1	1.30mi
505 Lansdowne Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,795	$1.13	0d	1	1.30mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,000	$1.09	17d	1	1.31mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	56d	1	1.31mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	48d	1	1.31mi
1153 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	0d	1	1.31mi
1153 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	4d	1	1.31mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,300	$1.35	26d	1	1.31mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	54d	1	1.31mi
1121 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	23d	1	1.32mi
1121 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	32d	1	1.32mi
1121 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	20d	1	1.32mi
1121 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	0d	1	1.32mi
1128 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	15d	1	1.33mi
1128 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	30d	1	1.33mi
1128 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	7d	1	1.33mi
1128 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	12d	1	1.33mi
1165 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,595	$1.25	59d	1	1.33mi
601 Barlow Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2090	$2,075	$0.99	93d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $284,990 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $284,990 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $284,990 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $284,990 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $284,990 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $284,990 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $284,990 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $284,990 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $284,990 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $284,990 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $284,990 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $284,990 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $284,990 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $284,990 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $284,990 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $284,990 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $284,990 Active 32 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $284,990 Active 31 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $284,990 Active 30 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $284,990 Active 29 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $284,990 Active 28 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $284,990 Active 27 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $284,990 Active 26 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $284,990 Active 25 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $284,990 Active 23 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $284,990 Active 22 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $284,990 Active 21 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $284,990 Active 20 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $284,990 Active 19 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $284,990 Active 18 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $284,990 Active 17 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $284,990 Active 16 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $284,990 Active 15 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $284,990 Active 14 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $284,990 Active 12 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $284,990 Active 10 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $284,990 Active 8 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $284,990 Active 7 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    statusdays on market $284,990 Active 4 DOM
40. 2026-05-15
    listed $284,990 Active 1392-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,175
• − Property taxes: −$5,135
• − Insurance: −$1,712
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − Depreciation: −$9,958
• Taxable loss: −$14,616
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,508
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious and open floor plan with a good layout for entertaining and relaxing. The home is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Updating light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Upgrading to newer, more energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's value and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Leland E Edge Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• County: Collin · 1,210,074 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284
• Household income: $100,373
• Rent vs Own: 6.7% rent · 93.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B