Kimbell Plan · Josephine, TX 75173

$284,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Designed for modern living with a graceful layout and smart flexibility, the Kimbell is a single-story home that lives large. The open kitchen, casual dining area, and great room come together in a wide, welcoming space that encourages connection - perfect for entertaining friends, sharing everyday meals, or simply relaxing at home. From the heart of the home, views extend to the covered patio, inviting outdoor living into your daily routine. The owner's suite is a true sanctuary, offering a serene retreat tucked away at the rear of the home. A spacious bath and generous walk-in closet complete the suite, with choices to personalize the space even further for added luxury. Two secondary bed

Key facts

• Casual dining area
• Covered patio
• Great room

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• CASUAL DINING AREA
• GREAT ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• SPACIOUS BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $284,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $342,348.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-556 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$59k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,148 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.96%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,348
• List price: $284,990
• Delta: -16.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 East St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,860 (-5%)	11mo	$374,999	$202	54
101 Monarch	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,876 (-4%)	21mo	$372,700	$199	49
104 Swallowtail	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,800 (-8%)	23mo	$378,500	$210	37
204 Swallowtail Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-11%)	18mo	$325,000	$186	35
315 East St	0.75mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,085 (+6%)	18mo	$339,900	$163	34
200 Swallowtail Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,160 (+10%)	22mo	$395,000	$183	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $151,099
• Equity at exit: $308,414

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $472,858
• Equity at exit: $665,106

Cash invested: $95,857 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,291 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,795
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$428 /mo · $5,135/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-556

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,995

Max offer price $261,949

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-319	-5% $-437	+0% $-556	+5% $-674	+10% $-792
Rent	-10% $-737	-5% $-646	+0% $-556	+5% $-465	+10% $-375
Rate	-1.0pp $-383	-0.5pp $-469	base $-556	+0.5pp $-644	+1.0pp $-735

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,587
• Closing costs: $10,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	0d	1	0.22mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	24d	1	0.74mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	0d	1	0.91mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	11d	1	1.12mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	8d	1	1.13mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	11d	1	1.19mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	13d	1	1.19mi
1117 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	5.0	2.5	1954	$2,095	$1.07	44d	1	1.24mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	44d	1	1.25mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	2d	1	1.28mi
1141 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,725	$1.35	44d	1	1.29mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	0d	1	1.31mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	8d	1	1.31mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	5d	1	1.31mi
1165 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,595	$1.25	11d	1	1.33mi
601 Barlow Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2090	$2,075	$0.99	44d	1	1.34mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	2d	1	1.36mi
813 Cottonwood Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2347	$2,350	$1.00	13d	1	1.43mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	6d	1	1.43mi
304 Red Stream Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	19d	1	1.44mi
1208 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2088	$2,095	$1.00	44d	1	1.45mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	25d	1	1.48mi
1216 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,000	$1.24	2d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $284,990 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $284,990 Active 1392-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,177
• − Property taxes: −$5,135
• − Insurance: −$1,712
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,200
• − Management: −$2,200
• − Depreciation: −$9,959
• Taxable loss: −$12,885
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,092
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious and open floor plan with a good layout for entertaining and relaxing. The home is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Updating light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading appliances — Upgrading to newer, more energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's value and attract more buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Updating light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Upgrading to newer, more energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's value and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B