14754 Melody Ln · Forney, TX 75126

$289,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,888 sqft · Manufactured public records · 156 Days on market

Built 2008 1.61 ac lot $100/sqft · 7% above area Est $290k · at est. ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER. PRICED BELOW MARKET. BRING ALL OFFERS!Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 3,040 square feet of living space on a 1.61-acre lot with no HOA. Come bring your ideas to make this your own. Features include two large living areas, a spacious kitchen, and oversized bedrooms, providing plenty of room for a large or growing family. The expansive lot allows for future development or customization. A large shed in the backyard offers additional storage or workspace potential. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from downtown Forney and approximately 25 minutes from downtown Dallas, with easy access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. Buyer and buyers agent to verify schools and measurements.

Key facts

• 1.61 acre lot
• Built 2008
• Listed 156 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,895 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.69%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,999
• List price: $289,999
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14754 Melody Ln	0.00mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,040 (+5%)	0mo	$289,999	$95	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-66,706
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-93,700
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,569 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$637 /mo · $7,646/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,885

Max offer price $245,895

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-86	-5% $-168	+0% $-250	+5% $-332	+10% $-414
Rent	-10% $-453	-5% $-351	+0% $-250	+5% $-148	+10% $-47
Rate	-1.0pp $-104	-0.5pp $-176	base $-250	+0.5pp $-325	+1.0pp $-401

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Spruce Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2934	$2,350	$0.80	44d	1	0.30mi
315 Red Oak Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$2,100	$1.09	44d	1	0.36mi
107 Huckleberry Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2186	$2,900	$1.33	44d	1	0.42mi
2140 Florence Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2032	$2,600	$1.28	44d	1	1.12mi
2302 Doe Branch Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2457	$2,750	$1.12	23d	1	1.13mi
2503 Blue Oasis Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2127	$2,499	$1.17	8d	1	1.21mi
1308 Middlebrooks Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,650	$1.19	45d	1	1.32mi
4170 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$3,573	$1.70	44d	1	1.39mi
1021 Ellis Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	3155	$2,995	$0.95	44d	1	1.40mi
4186 Rim Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2060	$2,750	$1.33	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $289,999 Pending 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,999 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $289,999 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $289,999 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,999 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,999 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-05-19
   status Active 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER. PRICED BELOW MARKET. BRING ALL OFFERS!Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 3,040 square feet of living space on a 1.61-acre lot with no HOA. Come bring your ideas to make this your own. Features include two large living areas, a spacious kitchen, and oversized bedrooms, providing plenty of room for a large or growing family. The expansive lot allows for future development or customization. A large shed in the backyard offers additional storage or workspace potential. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from downtown Forney and approximately 25 minutes from downtown Dallas, with easy access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. Buyer and buyers agent to verify schools and measurements.

8. 2026-05-12
   historical Active Option Contract 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER. PRICED BELOW MARKET. BRING ALL OFFERS!Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 3,040 square feet of living space on a 1.61-acre lot with no HOA. Come bring your ideas to make this your own. Features include two large living areas, a spacious kitchen, and oversized bedrooms, providing plenty of room for a large or growing family. The expansive lot allows for future development or customization. A large shed in the backyard offers additional storage or workspace potential. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from downtown Forney and approximately 25 minutes from downtown Dallas, with easy access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. Buyer and buyers agent to verify schools and measurements.

9. 2026-04-30
   price $299,999 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER. PRICED BELOW MARKET. BRING ALL OFFERS!Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 3,040 square feet of living space on a 1.61-acre lot with no HOA. Come bring your ideas to make this your own. Features include two large living areas, a spacious kitchen, and oversized bedrooms, providing plenty of room for a large or growing family. The expansive lot allows for future development or customization. A large shed in the backyard offers additional storage or workspace potential. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from downtown Forney and approximately 25 minutes from downtown Dallas, with easy access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. Buyer and buyers agent to verify schools and measurements.

10. 2026-04-29
    price $309,999 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. PRICED BELOW MARKET. BRING ALL OFFERS!Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 3,040 square feet of living space on a 1.61-acre lot with no HOA. Come bring your ideas to make this your own. Features include two large living areas, a spacious kitchen, and oversized bedrooms, providing plenty of room for a large or growing family. The expansive lot allows for future development or customization. A large shed in the backyard offers additional storage or workspace potential. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from downtown Forney and approximately 25 minutes from downtown Dallas, with easy access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. Buyer and buyers agent to verify schools and measurements.

11. 2026-04-09
    price $316,000 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. PRICED BELOW MARKET. BRING ALL OFFERS!Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 3,040 square feet of living space on a 1.61-acre lot with no HOA. Come bring your ideas to make this your own. Features include two large living areas, a spacious kitchen, and oversized bedrooms, providing plenty of room for a large or growing family. The expansive lot allows for future development or customization. A large shed in the backyard offers additional storage or workspace potential. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from downtown Forney and approximately 25 minutes from downtown Dallas, with easy access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. Buyer and buyers agent to verify schools and measurements.

12. 2026-03-26
    price $319,999 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. PRICED BELOW MARKET. BRING ALL OFFERS!Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 3,040 square feet of living space on a 1.61-acre lot with no HOA. Come bring your ideas to make this your own. Features include two large living areas, a spacious kitchen, and oversized bedrooms, providing plenty of room for a large or growing family. The expansive lot allows for future development or customization. A large shed in the backyard offers additional storage or workspace potential. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from downtown Forney and approximately 25 minutes from downtown Dallas, with easy access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. Buyer and buyers agent to verify schools and measurements.

13. 2026-03-18
    price $325,000 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. PRICED BELOW MARKET. BRING ALL OFFERS!Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 3,040 square feet of living space on a 1.61-acre lot with no HOA. Come bring your ideas to make this your own. Features include two large living areas, a spacious kitchen, and oversized bedrooms, providing plenty of room for a large or growing family. The expansive lot allows for future development or customization. A large shed in the backyard offers additional storage or workspace potential. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from downtown Forney and approximately 25 minutes from downtown Dallas, with easy access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. Buyer and buyers agent to verify schools and measurements.

14. 2026-03-18
    price $329,999 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. PRICED BELOW MARKET. BRING ALL OFFERS!Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 3,040 square feet of living space on a 1.61-acre lot with no HOA. Come bring your ideas to make this your own. Features include two large living areas, a spacious kitchen, and oversized bedrooms, providing plenty of room for a large or growing family. The expansive lot allows for future development or customization. A large shed in the backyard offers additional storage or workspace potential. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from downtown Forney and approximately 25 minutes from downtown Dallas, with easy access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. Buyer and buyers agent to verify schools and measurements.

15. 2026-03-05
    price $334,999 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. PRICED BELOW MARKET. BRING ALL OFFERS!Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 3,040 square feet of living space on a 1.61-acre lot with no HOA. Come bring your ideas to make this your own. Features include two large living areas, a spacious kitchen, and oversized bedrooms, providing plenty of room for a large or growing family. The expansive lot allows for future development or customization. A large shed in the backyard offers additional storage or workspace potential. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from downtown Forney and approximately 25 minutes from downtown Dallas, with easy access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. Buyer and buyers agent to verify schools and measurements.

16. 2026-02-08
    price $339,999 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. PRICED BELOW MARKET. BRING ALL OFFERS!Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 3,040 square feet of living space on a 1.61-acre lot with no HOA. Come bring your ideas to make this your own. Features include two large living areas, a spacious kitchen, and oversized bedrooms, providing plenty of room for a large or growing family. The expansive lot allows for future development or customization. A large shed in the backyard offers additional storage or workspace potential. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from downtown Forney and approximately 25 minutes from downtown Dallas, with easy access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. Buyer and buyers agent to verify schools and measurements.

17. 2026-01-14
    price $350,000 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. PRICED BELOW MARKET. BRING ALL OFFERS!Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 3,040 square feet of living space on a 1.61-acre lot with no HOA. Come bring your ideas to make this your own. Features include two large living areas, a spacious kitchen, and oversized bedrooms, providing plenty of room for a large or growing family. The expansive lot allows for future development or customization. A large shed in the backyard offers additional storage or workspace potential. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from downtown Forney and approximately 25 minutes from downtown Dallas, with easy access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. Buyer and buyers agent to verify schools and measurements.

18. 2025-12-30
    listed $325,000 Active 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. PRICED BELOW MARKET. BRING ALL OFFERS!Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 3,040 square feet of living space on a 1.61-acre lot with no HOA. Come bring your ideas to make this your own. Features include two large living areas, a spacious kitchen, and oversized bedrooms, providing plenty of room for a large or growing family. The expansive lot allows for future development or customization. A large shed in the backyard offers additional storage or workspace potential. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from downtown Forney and approximately 25 minutes from downtown Dallas, with easy access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. Buyer and buyers agent to verify schools and measurements.

19. 2025-09-02
    listed $349,900 Active
20. 2022-10-26
    soldstatus
21. 2022-06-07
    soldstatus
22. 2008-11-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,646 · $637/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,646 · $637/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$7,646
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,466
• − Management: −$2,466
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$7,886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,893
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $299,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $309,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $316,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $319,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $325,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $329,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $334,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $339,999 NTREIS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $350,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $325,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $349,900 NTREIS
• 2022-10-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-11-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,646 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.