434 N State St · Marion, OH 43302

$114,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1899 Est $133k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cash flow investment opportunity! This duplex has two- 3 Bd units. Monthly rent is 781 for lower unit and 600 for upper unit. The lower unit is Section 8 approved. ;null

Key facts

• Built 1899

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (0.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities F.
• Marion City (town): math 22% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #600 of 656 in OH (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 208 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 53 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1899 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $114,802

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1899 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.21%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,096
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
532 N Prospect St	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+1%)	1mo	$124,900	$118	88
525 Oak St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+5%)	1mo	$144,000	$131	72
279 E Fairground St	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,168 (+12%)	2mo	$163,000	$140	64
291 Patten St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,160 (+11%)	6mo	$152,000	$131	60
484 Grant St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,068 (+2%)	9mo	$136,000	$127	60
316 Patten St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,148 (+10%)	6mo	$45,000	$39	60
516 Polk St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,087 (+4%)	1mo	$39,000	$36	58
554 Wilson Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (-1%)	6mo	$60,000	$58	57
636 Mary St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (+9%)	5mo	$57,360	$50	56
467 Jefferson St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-5%)	3mo	$30,000	$30	50
396 Lynn Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	952 (-9%)	5mo	$159,900	$168	44
402 Lynn Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (+9%)	9mo	$175,000	$153	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-11,412
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-608
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43302

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,724/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,005

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $192	-5% $153	+0% $113	+5% $73	+10% $33
Rent	-10% $22	-5% $68	+0% $113	+5% $158	+10% $204
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $142	base $113	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
133 Garden St Unit 131 Marion, OH	2.0	1.0	752	$900	$1.20	45d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2024-12-02
   status Pending
2. 2021-05-22
   historical
3. 2021-03-19
   listed $114,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,724
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,102
• − Management: −$1,102
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable loss: −$505
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$121
• After-tax cash flow: $1,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion City
• NCES district ID: 3904433
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $32,327
• Composite: 21.58/100
• National rank: #8306
• State rank: #600 of 656 in OH

Livability — Marion

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #704
• US rank: #12605

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, OH
• County: Marion County · 53,702 people
• City population: 53,702
• Metro: Marion, OH
• Population (ZIP): 53,702
• Household income: $55,057
• Rent vs Own: 36.6% rent · 63.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1554.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,078 people
• By 2030: 60,049 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 55,413 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 50,604 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 40,162 · -35.3%
• By 2100: 29,105 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.4) · D 28.9% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.9pp · 2024: -41.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.4 2020: R+38.6 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+7.6 2008: R+8.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.52%
• Current HPI: 223.5344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Marion, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-02 Pending — CBRMLS
• 2021-05-22 Listing Removed — CBRMLS
• 2021-03-19 Listed $114,900 CBRMLS

Property tax history

+72.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $158 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.