2364 Bradley Ct · Grants Pass, OR 97527

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1998 $93/sqft · 30% above area Est $100k · 30% over $675/mo HOA · 35% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Double-wide 1998, split floor plan, master with bath, 3 bed. , 2 bath in Willow Estates in 55+ park. Golden West, 1404 sq ft

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1998
• Listed 37 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease $675
• HOA & community: Has association; Monthly association fee of $675; Association covers trash and water; Senior community; No CCRs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; District / public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide) located in a park; Single-level; Manufacturer: Golden West; Vinyl skirting; May remain in park
• Construction: Built in 1998; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Double-pane windows with vinyl frames; Shed(s); Paved road access; Flood zone: Not applicable

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Oven; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating and cooling); Electric heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Laminate counters; Pantry; Shower/tub combo; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($69/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Grants Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#137 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Grants Pass SD 7 (urban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #66 of 183 in OR (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Redwood Elementary School (440 students, 70% FRL); South Middle School (reading 75%, 633 students, 69% FRL); Grants Pass High School (1,722 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 53% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 223 units permitted in Josephine County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Josephine County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $130k implies a 165% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.19%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,000
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 29.90%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1505 Agape Way	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-4%)	4mo	$60,000	$44	78
122 Whispering Willow Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,365 (-3%)	4mo	$99,900	$73	77
2387 Mulberry Ct	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+8%)	7mo	$83,000	$55	72
2371 Ryan Ct	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,509 (+8%)	12mo	$133,000	$88	72
298 Whispering Willow Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	3mo	$88,000	$58	70
327 Whispering Willow Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-8%)	5mo	$127,500	$98	70
1450 Willow Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-8%)	16mo	$111,000	$86	69
2386 Sasha Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-11%)	11mo	$115,000	$92	69
1426 Willow Ct	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+8%)	14mo	$110,000	$73	68
1551 Willow Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-13%)	2mo	$72,000	$59	66
1504 Agape Way	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (-8%)	6mo	$66,525	$52	64
431 Whispering Willow Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-8%)	10mo	$125,000	$96	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-20,182
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-15,064
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97527

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,179/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$675
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,910

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $79	-5% $43	+0% $6	+5% $-31	+10% $-68
Rent	-10% $-146	-5% $-70	+0% $6	+5% $81	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $39	base $6	+0.5pp $-28	+1.0pp $-62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1654 Kellenbeck Ave Grants Pass, OR	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	45d	1	0.25mi
109 SW Otter Ct Grants Pass, OR	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,395	$1.55	45d	1	0.32mi
109 SW Otter Ct Grants Pass, OR	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,395	$1.55	46d	1	0.32mi
1400 SW Kokanee Ln Unit 1402 Grants Pass, OR	2.0	1.0	962	$1,495	$1.55	45d	1	0.38mi
1783 Medart Ln Unit 1783 Grants Pass, OR	2.0	1.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	45d	1	0.43mi
1754 Sun Glo Dr Grants Pass, OR	2.0	1.0	888	$1,450	$1.63	45d	1	0.48mi
1605 Kokanee Ln Grants Pass, OR	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,200	$1.43	45d	1	0.52mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $675 · $8,100/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $129,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 16 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 15 DOM
19. 2026-05-15
    listed $129,900 Active 124-char remark
20. 2020-04-27
    historical
21. 2020-04-27
    historical
22. 2016-01-07
    soldstatus $49,000
23. 2015-11-16
    listed $49,900
24. 2015-04-20
    soldstatus $44,900
25. 2015-03-12
    listed $44,900
26. 2014-12-06
    historical
27. 2014-09-26
    listed $59,900
28. 2013-09-30
    listed $44,500
29. 2013-04-09
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,179 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$81/yr (+$7/mo · 6.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,179
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,840
• − Management: −$1,840
• − HOA: −$8,100
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$1,662
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$399
• After-tax cash flow: $468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grants Pass SD 7
• NCES district ID: 4105910
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,433
• Composite: 41.5/100
• National rank: #7281
• State rank: #66 of 183 in OR

Livability — Grants Pass

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #7900

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grants Pass, OR
• County: Josephine County · 73,366 people
• City population: 73,366
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• Population (ZIP): 37,330
• Household income: $66,975
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Josephine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,883 people
• By 2030: 89,055 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 90,396 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 90,801 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 89,880 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 81,252 · -7.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Josephine

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.1) · D 34.2% · R 63.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.2pp · 2024: -29.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.1 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.09%
• Current HPI: 318.0477
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.05%
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+188.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $129,900 MLSCO
• 2020-04-27 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-27 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2016-01-07 Sold (MLS) $49,000 MLSCO
• 2015-11-16 Listed $49,900 MLSCO
• 2015-04-20 Sold (MLS) $44,900 MLSCO
• 2015-03-12 Listed $44,900 MLSCO
• 2014-12-06 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2014-09-26 Listed $59,900 MLSCO
• 2013-09-30 Listed $44,500 MLSCO
• 2013-04-09 Listed $45,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,179 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.