3780 N Jog Rd #205 · West Palm Beach, FL 33411

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 863 sqft · Condo public records · 103 Days on market

Built 2004 $361/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Your new home awaits in the prestigious The Cove at Briar Bay in West Palm Beach, Florida! This stunning and well-maintained 2bed/2bath unit offers a perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. Fully equipped with stainless steel appliances, including a refrigerator, stove, oven, and dishwasher. Central air conditioning and heating. Access to the community pool, clubhouse, and fitness center. Conveniently located near major highways, top-rated schools, shopping centers, dining options, and entertainment venues. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this your new home!

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Clubhouse
• Community pool

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER
• MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with restrictions/conditions
• Financial info: Association fee: $361 monthly
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with guest parking; 1 covered garage space
• Security: Security/high-impact doors; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Attached property; Entry on level 2; Resale property
• Construction: Block construction
• Exterior features: Balcony; Open balcony/patio; Security/high-impact doors; Smoke detectors; Association-maintained pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedroom located on the main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bedroom on main level; Ceramic tile flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-359 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (32.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#75 in FL, #1,255 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grassy Waters Elementary School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 739 students, 64% FRL); Jeaga Middle School (math 18% / reading 30%, grade F, #532 of 571 statewide, top 94%, 941 students, 78% FRL); Palm Beach Lakes High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,688 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 52% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Palm Beach average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 583 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask is 10163% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $195k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,537 (32.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.90%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $79,710
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $246,068
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33411

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 583
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,857 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$361 /mo · $4,338/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$361
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,312

Max offer price $131,537

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-249	-5% $-304	+0% $-359	+5% $-414	+10% $-470
Rent	-10% $-506	-5% $-433	+0% $-359	+5% $-286	+10% $-213
Rate	-1.0pp $-261	-0.5pp $-310	base $-359	+0.5pp $-410	+1.0pp $-461

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3790 N Jog Rd #203 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	863	$1,850	$2.14	9d	1	0.03mi
3810 N Jog Rd West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	904	$1,950	$2.16	9d	2	0.05mi
3760 N Jog Rd #204 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	863	$1,900	$2.20	26d	1	0.05mi
3504 Briar Bay Blvd #205 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	863	$1,800	$2.09	6d	1	0.10mi
3504 Briar Bay Blvd #205 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	863	$1,850	$2.14	26d	1	0.10mi
3512 Briar Bay Blvd #105 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	883	$2,000	$2.27	9d	1	0.18mi
3490 Briar Bay Blvd West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	920	$1,800	$1.96	6d	1	0.19mi
3490 Briar Bay Blvd #104 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	883	$1,799	$2.04	16d	1	0.19mi
3486 Briar Bay Blvd #101 West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1092	$2,600	$2.38	1d	1	0.27mi
197 Sussex E Unit 197 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	684	$1,500	$2.19	26d	1	0.72mi
16 Sussex E Unit 16 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,350	$2.37	14d	1	0.73mi
176 Sussex I Unit I West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,400	$2.46	26d	1	0.77mi
172 Sussex I Unit I West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,500	$2.63	26d	1	0.77mi
176 Sussex I Unit I West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,400	$2.46	19d	1	0.77mi
159 Sussex H West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,350	$2.37	26d	1	0.77mi
4 Sussex a West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	615	$1,350	$2.20	16d	1	0.77mi
166 Sussex I Unit I West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,500	$2.63	26d	1	0.77mi
188 Cambridge H Unit H West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	684	$1,345	$1.97	7d	1	0.77mi
179 Canterbury H West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	798	$1,200	$1.50	3d	1	0.79mi
179 Canterbury H Unit H West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	798	$1,200	$1.50	26d	1	0.79mi
1 Canterbury A Unit A West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	798	$1,595	$2.00	26d	1	0.80mi
50 Canterbury B West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	774	$1,250	$1.61	15d	1	0.80mi
204 Canterbury I Unit I West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,350	$2.37	26d	1	0.80mi
175 Canterbury H #175 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,250	$2.19	16d	1	0.80mi
201 Canterbury I Unit I West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,250	$2.19	26d	1	0.80mi
11 Cambridge E Unit 11 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	684	$1,500	$2.19	26d	1	0.82mi
210 Canterbury E Unit 1 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,375	$2.41	14d	1	0.83mi
17 Cambridge a West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	684	$1,200	$1.75	26d	1	0.83mi
49 Cambridge B Unit B West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	684	$1,350	$1.97	5d	1	0.83mi
49 Cambridge B Unit B West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	684	$1,450	$2.12	26d	1	0.83mi
79 Dorchester E Unit 79 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	798	$1,500	$1.88	26d	1	0.84mi
145 Dorchester E Unit 145 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	646	$1,300	$2.01	9d	1	0.84mi
6516 Morgan Hill Trl #1809 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1086	$2,050	$1.89	4d	1	0.88mi
51 Dorchester E Unit 51 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,400	$2.46	26d	1	0.89mi
144 Dorchester G West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	798	$1,700	$2.13	14d	1	0.90mi
144 Dorchester G West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	798	$1,700	$2.13	12d	1	0.90mi
3130 N Jog Rd West Palm Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1145	$2,442	$2.13	1d	19	0.91mi
245 Northampton M West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	798	$1,700	$2.13	7d	1	0.92mi
243 Northampton M Unit M West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,400	$2.46	9d	1	0.92mi
235 Northampton L #235 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	615	$1,300	$2.11	12d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $361 · $4,332/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-04-25
    price $1,700
16. 2026-04-11
    price $1,800
17. 2026-04-10
    price $195,000
18. 2026-03-11
    listed $1,900
19. 2026-03-10
    listed $199,000 Active
20. 2018-03-06
    historical
21. 2017-12-04
    historical
22. 2017-06-15
    listed $109,900 Active
23. 2016-04-25
    listed $109,900 Active
24. 2014-10-22
    soldstatus $85,000
25. 2014-08-26
    historical
26. 2014-07-22
    historical
27. 2014-06-10
    listed $94,000 Active
28. 2013-11-20
    listed $94,000 Active
29. 2012-09-05
    historical
30. 2012-06-12
    listed $44,900
31. 2005-03-07
    soldstatus $158,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,338 · $361/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,338 · $361/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$4,338
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
• − Management: −$1,783
• − HOA: −$4,332
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$7,521
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,805
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — West Palm Beach

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #1255

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Palm Beach, FL
• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 222,012
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 76,863
• Household income: $92,591
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1870.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 23% Two or more races 16% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 6% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.04%
• Current HPI: 903.78
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-98.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $1,700 MARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $1,800 MARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $195,000 MARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed for Rent $1,900 MARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $199,000 MARMLS
• 2018-03-06 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2017-12-04 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2017-06-15 Listed $109,900 Beaches MLS
• 2016-04-25 Listed $109,900 MARMLS
• 2014-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-26 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2014-07-22 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2014-06-10 Listed $94,000 Beaches MLS
• 2013-11-20 Listed $94,000 MARMLS
• 2012-09-05 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2012-06-12 Listed $44,900 Beaches MLS
• 2005-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $158,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,338 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.