315 Old Cotton Gin Rd · Tremont, MS 38876

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1988 1.00 ac lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedrooms/ 2 bath brick home with a open floor plan, laundry room & a double attached garage. Home is situated on a 1.3-acre lot with a fenced backyard, covered patio, deck and is convenient to schools, dining & major roadways. All information deemed reliable. We do not warrant acreage or sqft. Buyers are responsible for verifying all schools, taxes & information before making an offer. Agents see private remarks.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Laundry room
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#180 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Itawamba County School District (rural): math 35% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #58 of 130 in MS (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Itawamba County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Itawamba County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,818 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.16%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.76% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $48,524
• Equity at exit: $103,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $145,503
• Equity at exit: $202,890

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38876

• Home prices YoY: 7.9%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $968 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $966/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $-103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,098

Max offer price $120,891

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-24	-5% $-63	+0% $-103	+5% $-142	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-179	-5% $-141	+0% $-103	+5% $-64	+10% $-26
Rate	-1.0pp $-33	-0.5pp $-67	base $-103	+0.5pp $-139	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $139,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $162,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $162,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $162,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $162,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $162,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $162,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $162,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $162,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $162,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $162,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $162,000 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $162,000 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    3 bedrooms/ 2 bath brick home with a open floor plan, laundry room & a double attached garage. Home is situated on a 1.3-acre lot with a fenced backyard, covered patio, deck and is convenient to schools, dining & major roadways. All information deemed reliable. We do not warrant acreage or sqft. Buyers are responsible for verifying all schools, taxes & information before making an offer. Agents see private remarks.

18. 2026-04-10
    listed $180,000 Active 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    3 bedrooms/ 2 bath brick home with a open floor plan, laundry room & a double attached garage. Home is situated on a 1.3-acre lot with a fenced backyard, covered patio, deck and is convenient to schools, dining & major roadways. All information deemed reliable. We do not warrant acreage or sqft. Buyers are responsible for verifying all schools, taxes & information before making an offer. Agents see private remarks.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $966 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,098 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$132/yr (+$11/mo · 13.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$966
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$929
• − Management: −$929
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$3,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$896
• After-tax cash flow: $-334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Itawamba County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802100
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $37,158
• Composite: 27.48/100
• National rank: #6956
• State rank: #58 of 130 in MS

Livability — Tremont

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #180
• US rank: #16869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tremont, MS
• Population (ZIP): 1,168

Population outlook (Itawamba County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,011 people
• By 2030: 23,999 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 23,738 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 22,962 · -4.4%
• By 2075: 20,240 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 16,503 · -31.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Itawamba

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+80.0) · D 9.7% · R 89.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.9pp toward R · 2008: -56.1pp · 2024: -80.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+80.0 2020: R+75.6 2016: R+75.6 2012: R+61.0 2008: R+56.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.76%
• Current HPI: 106.2474
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $162,000 NEMSBD
• 2026-04-10 Listed $180,000 NEMSBD

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $966 · +16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.